Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Financial/Gaming Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.68 -1.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.39 +.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.83 -.23%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.71 -.44%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +6.38%
  • Total Put/Call .82 +3.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 +57.97%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.05 -2.12%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 542.0 -.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.71 -3.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 268.25 -1.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.61 -1.81%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.56 -.43%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 157.77 +.26%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 -1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 26.50 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 -3.75 basis points.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.22 +.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.
  • Yield Curve 14.75 unch
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.30 +5.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -74.90 +4.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.2 +3.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 +1.0 basis point
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, .1% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +106 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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