Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 44.5% of Issues Advancing, 52.8% Declining
• 133 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
• 59.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.1%
• Vix 16.1 +.7%
• Total Put/Call 1.08 +3.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 +46.6%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.15% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.75 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 47.25 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.46 +.01%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ACN)/1.71
• (ATU)/.18
• (CAG)/.39
• (FDS)/2.46

After the Close:

• (CAMP)/.12
• (MU)/.48
• (PRGS)/.68
• (MTN)/-2.56

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated at -$73.4B versus -$72.3B in July. 
• Retail Inventories MoM for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.8% gain in July.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 212K versus 208K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1666K versus 1661K prior.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -2.5% decline in July.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Sept. is estimated to rise to -4 versus -6 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Vice Chair Clarida speaking, Japan CPI report, $32B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (BAM) investor day and (DELL) business update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Impeachment Prospects, US Economic Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -4.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.46 -.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.30 +1.47%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.40 -2.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +2.2%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.11 -5.1%

• NYSE Arms .89 -48.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.40 -.02%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 417.0 +3.89%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.53 +3.29%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.75 -1.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.18 +2.58%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.69 -1.14%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.94 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread -1.25 +1.0 basis points

• TED Spread 18.75 -3.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 +1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.44 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.88% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .03 unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 87.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.48%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.70 +4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -65.30 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.8 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.60 +2.0 basis points
• 77.3% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 87.5% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -105 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.4% 2) Healthcare Providers -.6% 3) Telecom -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ONCE, AVTR, COUP, GH, PINC, SGH, URGN and LCI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ITB 2) MPC 3) NKE 4) CTSH 5) CAG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PIMC 2) VAL 3) SDC 4) TDOC 5) MTCH

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.1% 2) Computer Hardware +1.6% 3) Banks +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SNX, MPC, PCRX, JBL, CHRS, MDCO, PM, DOVA, CTAS, NKE, HDS, PSMT and ARES

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LSCC 2) NKE 3) KBH 4) PG 5) HDS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NKE 2) CTAS 3) NVDA 4) HPE 5) SNX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 54.3% of Issues Advancing, 42.3% Declining
• 58 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 58.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.4%
• Vix 16.9 -.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.15 -1.7%
• TRIN/Arms .97 -44.3%