Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 39.1% of Issues Advancing, 58.3% Declining
• 76 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 65.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.52%
• Vix 13.6 +9.2%
• Total Put/Call .82 +5.1%
• TRIN/Arms .84 -39.6%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.75 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.76 +.01%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.36%.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (LW)/.86

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.8% decline in Oct.
• ISM Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to rise to 49.0 versus 48.1 in Nov.
• ISM Prices Paid for Dec. is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 46.7 in Nov.
  

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC Dec. 11th Meeting Minutes.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Dec. is estimated to fall to 17.0M versus 17.09M in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Unemployment rate could also impact trading today.

Market Hours

Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Global Growth Optimism, China Stimulus, Technical Buying, Tech/Industrial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.6 -8.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.84 -.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.58 -.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.38 -6.53%

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +16
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -20.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.35 +16.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.32 -2.17%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 551.0 +.73%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.87 +.43%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.75 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.04 +.05%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 175.72 +1.15%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.52 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 -2.75 basis points

• TED Spread 36.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 4.25 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.73 +.03%

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.53%-1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .35+5.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.58 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.4 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.40 +3.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.9 +3.4 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +1.0 basis point

• 5.0% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 11.0% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +19 open in Japan 

• China A50 Futures: Indicating +114 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) REITs -1.7% 2) Tobacco -1.6% 3) Utilities -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IRM, REAL, WW and NVCR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FCEL 2) CTL 3) MUR 4) SIG 5) SKT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SIG 2) DCO 3) GRUB 4) CTL 5) CGC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +2.7% 2) Video Gaming +2.0% 3) Semis +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BTU, ENPH, FSLY, ARLP, AMD, AVLR, AIMT, COUP, HEI/A, GE, XBIT, HEI, PCTY, TTD, IIVI, ZEN, AAXN, PSN, SGRY, TLND, PTON, DT, AMBA, RCK, OXY, ZUO, WES, LITE, AXE and WDC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DRI 2) IEF 3) KNX 4) DVN 5) DXJ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RCON 2) AMD 3) TSLA 4) TRNX 5) BA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 50.8% of Issues Advancing, 46.5% Declining
• 144 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 64.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.2%
• Vix 13.5 -2.4%
• Total Put/Call .8 -18.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 -89.3%