Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +29.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 29.4% of Issues Advancing, 67.3% Declining
• 80 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
• 66.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.2%
• Vix 13.9 +7.3%
• Total Put/Call .84 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.23 -11.5%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.75 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.5  +1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.25 -.01%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.03%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AAL)/1.17
• (CMCSA)/.77
• (FCX)/.0
• (JBLU)/.54
• (KEY)/.48
• (KMB)/1.70
• (PG)/1.37
• (LUV)/1.09
• (TRV)/3.26
• (UNP)/2.05
• (VFC)/1.21

After the Close:

• (ETFC)/.83
• (INTC)/1.25
• (ISRG)/3.38
• (MRTN)/.28
• (SWKS)/1.66

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 214K versus 204K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1750K versus 1767K prior.

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus unch. in Nov.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to -6 versus -8 in Dec. 
• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +361,450 barrels versus a -2,549,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,978,200 barrels versus a +6,678,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +2,179,400 barrels versus a +8,171,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.47% versus a -.8% decline the prior week.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB decision/press conference, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Jan., weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours

Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlooks, Global Growth Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.6 -2.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.47 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.0 -1.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.5 +1.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -69
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -7.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.35 +7.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.06 -.71%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 574.0 +1.97%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.55 +.24%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.75 -1.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.15 +.75%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 185.65 +.71%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.48 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 25.75 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.27 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% +2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .25 unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.7 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 43.60 -1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +4.8 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 -2.0 basis points
• .8% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 8.7% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -151 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -131 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.5% 2) Alt Energy -1.0% 3) Agriculture -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ZION, CF, NTRS, EOLS and BPMC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TNDM 2) NVAX 3) RRC 4) USO 5) SPCE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BA 2) HIG 3) ZION 4) HII 5) BZUN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.4% 2) Video Gaming +1.3% 3) Computer Services +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CVM, ACMR, EVER, PI, AKCA, EXAS, NAVI, TXG, SPCE, SE, TSLA, HRTX, DNLI, SPT, NTNX, ALLY, SDC, CIT, CRNC, SKT, MRNA, COF, AYX, AAXN, PRPL, DDD, PSNL, EAF, XENT, JELD, WING, SHAK, PSTG, ELAN, EYE, SMAR, APPN, GDOT, JBLU, KRTX, BLL, OUT, PTON and TDOC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DERM 2) MIK 3) FIS 4) IBM 5) TXN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) COF 2) EXPR 3) NPTN 4) IBM 5) ABT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 58.0% of Issues Advancing, 38.3% Declining
• 243 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 66.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.8%
• Vix 12.3 -4.0%
• Total Put/Call .71 -14.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.35 +7.1%