Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,304.92 -15.0%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 19,173.98 -17.3%

• NASDAQ 6,879.52 -12.6%

• Russell 2000 1,013.89 -16.2%

• S&P 500 High Beta 26.08 -17.9%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 84.76 -15.5%

• Wilshire 5000 23,105.30 -15.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,346.96 -14.3%

• Russell 1000 Value 874.72 -16.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 516.28 -11.3%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,097.68 -2.81%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,703.39 -12.75%

• Transports 6,837.72 -13.88%

• Utilities 646.13 -15.3%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 46.35 -4.5%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 31.41 -3.87%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,073.14 -3.5%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 875.65 -1.73%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 377,460 -1.35%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -2,922 +3,798

• Commercial Bullish % Net Position -32.75 -.99%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 387,397 -.25%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,220,972 +1.13%

• Total Put/Call 1.24 -1.59%

• OEX Put/Call 1.01 -12.0%

• ISE Sentiment 38.0 -34

• NYSE Arms 1.40 +268.42%

• Volatility(VIX) 66.04 +14.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.25 -28.74%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 13.82 +18.12%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 14.46 +16.14%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,484.0 +5.97%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.936 Trillion +4.2%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$17.254 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 34.4 +15.5%

• AAII % Bears 51.2 -.31%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 123.88 -12.0%

• Crude Oil 22.63 -31.28%

• Reformulated Gasoline 60.54 -34.32%

• Natural Gas 1.58 -14.82%

• Heating Oil 100.63 -13.77%

• Gold 1,484.60 -2.9%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 144.6 -9.1%

• Copper 217.15 -12.9%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 264.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 84.65 USD/Metric Tonne -2.42%

• Lumber 322.30 -3.42%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 798.58 -1.32%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.13% +8.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -4.4% -390.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 40.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1675 -14.73%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 663.73 +173.5%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 172.46 -2.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.3 -28.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.5 -11.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -36.3 -16.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply n/a chance of no change, n/a chance of 100.0 basis point rate cut on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 102.91 +4.21%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,552.85 -2.89%

• Bitcoin/USD 6,275.11 +15.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.10 -1.19%

• Yield Curve 75.0 +42.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield .85% -8.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.630 Trillion +8.36%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.98 +31.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 314.10 +88.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.25 -38.75 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.30 -4.82%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 345.225 +31.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.71 +10.78%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.4 +14.8%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 269.06 +17.7%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.85 -.31%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread .76% -14.0 basis point

• TED Spread 123.75 +76.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +16.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 84.0 +147.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 148.30 +37.99%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,519.0 +6.02%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 134.09 +2.64%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 406.13 +17.69%
  

• Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate CMBS Avg. OAS 1.54 +35.1%
  

• M1 Money Supply $4.084 Trillion +.94%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,146.80 +1.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 232,250 +18,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.65% +29.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 1,073.60 -8.4%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.0 +.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +7.2% +120.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.17/gallon -.23/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 630.0 +.32%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 894.23 -.47%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 125.0 +19.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 236,978 +1.90%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -13.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -18.6%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +2.6%

• Biotech -4.8%

• Video Gaming -7.5%

• Foods -7.8%

• Networking -7.8%

Lagging Sectors

• Energy -21.4% 

• REITs -22.6%

• Gaming -24.3%

• Homebuilding -27.0%

• Airlines -37.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)

• ARQT, BBIO, DK, EQM, CRWD, SAFE, ILMN, ZM, DOCU, SMAR, DRQ, EPAM, EOG, UNFI, MDLA, PZZA, EGOV and TDOC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (103)

• ORI, CDK, NVST, BLDR, CNK, COF, XEL, RCII, ETSY, GNTX, WY, SPAR, ALLY, EVOP, WAL, DNKN, PVH, RDFN, SRCL, KKR, VMC, HR, RCII, WAL, DNKN, TPR, JEF, VNO, SRCL, ACIW, UTF, CNK, CBT, KKR, GS, JKHY, PVH, EGBN, MIDD, EVTC, SEIC, ALC, EGBN, CRS, CNK, BOKF, MMP, ITRI, XOM, UHS, SHW, SCHL, NCR, HHC, WSM, LPX, PRI, IPG, MHK, FAF, THC, VSAT, HWC, GPN, EHC, T, AX, LAMR, HCA, MET, AEL, UTG, ABCB, KW, IBKC, LSXMA, PAYX, KSS, WSFS, MLM, TCBI, HOG, AWK, BHLB, DRI, IAA, CRY, ABM, WEX, ARES, WEC, IBTX, NWE, GPC, ACHC, AAN, GSBD, MIC, PFGC, SHOO, RMD, BECN, RDN, NXST, CAKE and EYE

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, Global Recession Worries, Oil Plunge, Financial/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 61.7 -14.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.77 +.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 14.2 -5.9%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 69.6 -19.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 -33
  

• Total Put/Call 1.17 -23.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.36 +42.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 141.72 +.87%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,509.0 -4.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 133.90 -1.34%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.25 +1.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 185.64 +18.61%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 399.22 -9.58%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.85 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -1.75 basis points

• TED Spread 113.0 +6.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +42.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.25 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.03% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .75 unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 84.65 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.30 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.6 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -36.3 +3.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread .67 +17.0 basis points
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,058 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -384 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -214 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer staple/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +96.6% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 75.3% of Issues Advancing, 23.6% Declining
• 0 New 52-Week Highs, 66 New Lows
• 3.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 28.6%
• Vix 58.3 -19.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.13 +.89%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +32.6%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 194.5 +40.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 69.5 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  58.41 -.05%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.6%.

• S&P 500 futures -1.5%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.7%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (HIBB)/.61
• (TIF)/1.75

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to rise to 5.51M versus 5.46M.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Producer Price Index could also impact trading today.

Market Hours

Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Oil Surge, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Restaurant/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 70.75 -7.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.43 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 15.7 +14.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 74.0 -14.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +53
  

• Total Put/Call 1.12 -16.4%

• NYSE Arms .87 -18.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 136.26 -1.47%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,573.0 +5.83%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 136.7 -16.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 193.5 -73.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 154.5 +3.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 444.47 -2.87%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.73 -.18%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +11.25 basis points

• TED Spread 107.0 +18.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.25 -15.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.06 -.81%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.02% -3.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .75 +19.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 86.76 USD/Metric Tonne -3.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.80 -17.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.6 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.8 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread .50 -14.0 basis points
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,088 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +176 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech, tech, industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +74.6% Above 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 55.5% of Issues Advancing, 43.5% Declining
• 4 New 52-Week Highs, 954 New Lows
• 3.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 24.8%
• Vix 79.4 +3.5%
• Total Put/Call 1.16 -13.4%
• TRIN/Arms .92 -14.0%