BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:03 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 -1.25 basis points.

China Sovereign CDS 43.75 -.5 basis point.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.33 -.07%.
FTSE 100 futures +.08%.

S&P 500 futures -.08%.

NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(AGCO)/.08
(ALXN)/2.58
(AMT)/1.94
(BUD)/.36
(APTV)/-1.36
(MT)/-.11
(AZN)/.92
(BAX)/.71
(BC)/.44
(CG)/.36
(CI)/5.16
(CLF)/-.51
(CMCSA)/.55
(COP)/-.58
(DBD)/-.19
(DNKN)/.49
(DD)/.58
(ELAN)/.07
(LLY)/1.60
(FLR)/.25
(FCN)/1.04
(GNRC)/.88
(GPC)/.92
(ICE)/1.04
(IGT)/-.61
(IP)/.39
(K)/.94
(KHC)/.65
(MA)/1.18
(TAP)/.64
(NEM)/.31
(NOC)/5.28
(ODFL)/1.07
(PBI)/-.01
(PG)/1.01
(RCL)/-4.55
(SWK)/1.28
(UPS)/1.08
(VLO)/-1.40
(YUM)/.54

After the Close:

(GOOG)/8.25
(AMZN)/1.62
(AAPL)/2.07
(DECK)/-1.13
(EA)/.79
(FB)/1.38
(F)/-1.17
(GILD)/1.46
(MGM)/-1.71
(SHAK)/-.38
(SPG)/2.23
(SKYW)/-.21
(SYK)/.57
(X)/-2.79
(XLNX)/.64
(ZEN)/.10

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Advance 2Q GDP is estimated to fall -34.5% versus a -5.0% decline in 1Q.
Advance 2Q Personal Consumption is estimated to fall -34.5% versus a -6.8% decline in 1Q.
Advance 2Q GDP Price Index is estimated unch. versus a +1.4% gain in 1Q.
Advance 2Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to fall -.9% versus a +1.7% gain in 1Q.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 1430K versus 1416K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 16250K versus 16197K prior.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The German GDP report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours

Normal:

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Outlooks, Short-Covering, Retail/Healthcare Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:19 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher

Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

Volume: Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 24.2 -4.7%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.14 +.42%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.02 +.2%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.6 -5.0%

ISE Sentiment Index 110 .0 -15.0 points

Total Put/Call .70 -14.6%

NYSE Arms 1.22 +28.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.22 -1.87%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 855.93 -.71%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.43 -1.2%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.75 +4.0 basis points

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.53 -.09%

Emerging Market CDS Index 189.28 -.85%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.75 +.01%

2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.25 basis point

TED Spread 17.0 +2.5 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 +.5 basis point
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 92.0 -4.25 basis points
IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.40 +.09%
3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.

Yield Curve 43.75 -4.0 basis points

China Iron Ore Spot 107.12 USD/Metric Tonne +1.52%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 230.0 -6.2 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 148.30 +.7 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.6 -.7 point

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.53 +2.0 basis points
100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs

Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:57 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Education -5.9% 2) Airlines -3.0% 3) Gold & Silver -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ENVA, SAIC, SC, PI, LSCC, KPTI, MNRO, ARCT, TNET, SIX, TPIC, ARCB, TBIO, ATRC, FIXX, MASI, ONEM, ADP, BCLI, CNK, HA, BTAI, VSLR, RUN, GWB, R, STRA, BE and ALEC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) KODK 2) XLP 3) EBAY 4) MET 5) AEO

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) STX 2) NCMI 3) NCLH 4) SONO 5) RTX

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:45 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +1.8%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Healthcare Providers +2.7% 2) Shipping +2.5% 3) Retail +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

KODK, TUP, LB, BCO, FEYE, AAN, DLX, TENB, PLT, IAA, CSGP, AMD, WING, INSG, SMG, TCRR, CHRW, BYD, CRS, BEAT, REXR, PRPL and PKI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) KODK 2) ADMP 3) LB 4) WELL 5) TPX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) MGM 2) HAFC 3) WFC 4) TMUS 5) CL

Charts:

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:41 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -13.3% Below 100-Day Average
9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
66.8% of Issues Advancing, 30.6% Declining
75 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
35.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 50.6%
Vix 24.6 -3.5%
Total Put/Call .65 -20.7%
TRIN/Arms 1.63 +71.6%

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Wednesday Watch