Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Days as World’s Factory Are Over, IPhone Maker Says.   
• Estate Agents Warn of Boom to Bust for U.K. Housing Market.  
• U.S. Says Iranian Forces Boarded Ship in International Waters.
• Asia Stocks to Track U.S. Higher; Dollar Declines. Asian stocks looked set for gains Thursday after U.S. peers briefly surpassed their all-time closing high, led by surging technology shares. The dollar weakened and Treasury yields rose to five-week highs. Futures pointed higher in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. S&P 500 contracts were little changed after the benchmark momentarily topped its February high, capping the more than 50% rally since the market lows in March. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed as Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Tesla Inc. jumped. Treasury yields dropped from the session highs after the government’s sale of $38 billion in 10-year notes attracted stronger-than-forecast demand. Gold steadied. S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 7:19 a.m. in Tokyo. The index rose 1.4% on Wednesday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 1.4%. Hang Seng futures climbed 0.4%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.7%.
• Oil Rises With Shrinking U.S. Stockpiles Signaling Demand Pickup.
• U.S. Cases Climb 1.1%; Trump Pressures Schools: Virus Update.
• Wall Street Democrats Rejoice at Biden’s Pick of Kamala Harris.
  
• Vaccine Nationalism Makes a Deadly Disease Even Worse.  
• Video-Game Stocks and ETFs Ride Covid Rally to Gains Topping 50%.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Deficit Totaled $2.8 Trillion From October Through July.
• Getting to Know Kamala Harris.
• Cities Weigh Cutting Police Budgets and Discover How Hard That Is.
• Goldman Sachs Vies for GM’s Credit Card, Betting on Connected Cars.
• Why Is It Hard to Get a Rapid Covid-19 Test? Machines Are Scarce.
• China’s Xi Speeds Up Inward Economic Shift.
• Coronavirus-Hit State Budgets Create a Drag on U.S. Recovery.
  

Fox News:

• Biden says Harris is ready to be VP as they make debut as running mates, vow to unseat Trump-Pence.
  

CNBC.com:

• Accuracy of U.S. coronavirus data thrown into question as decline in testing skews drop in new cases.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Lyft, Cisco, Vroom & more.
• Cisco falls on disappointing quarterly guidance as revenue continues to drop.
• No sign of a stimulus deal in sight as Mnuchin, Pelosi phone call yields no progress.

MarketWatch.com:       

• Vaping makes teens up to 7 times more likely to catch COVID-19: study.
• Warren Buffett said this metric signaled the 2001 crash — now it’s sounding the alarm on global markets .
• ‘Bond King’ warns of a return to March lows in the stock market, says smart money is on Trump to win in November.
  
• The recovery is faltering, top forecasters say.

Zero Hedge:

• Brace For The Worst Election In US History.
• Peak Idiocy: Wisconsin Government Agency Mandates Facemask Use For Virtual Zoom Meetings.
• Real Estate Collapse: In Q2, A Record 44 NYC Neighborhoods Closed Fewer Than Five Deals.
• Prof: "The Constitution Is Racist".
• S&P Surges Above Record Closing High.
• Andrew Kimbrell On The Origins of COVID-19.
• Lyft Reports Lowest EBITDA In History As Revenue Craters 60%.
• Trump Insists Most School Districts Can Reopen Safely.
• CNN: Joe Biden Could 'Step Aside' For Kamala Harris.
• S&P Jumps Above Record High After $9 Trillion Global Liquidity Tsunami.

Business Insider:

• Uber and Lyft threaten to temporarily shut down in California over labor disputes.
• Miami and New York top the US in mortgage delinquencies as rates rise in all 50 states.
• Air circulation can fight coronavirus transmission — or help it spread. Here's how to spot a faulty system.

The Epoch Times:

• TikTok, WeChat Bans Aimed at Protecting Americans’ Data From Beijing, US Assistant AG Says.
• CCP Uses ‘Friendship Groups’ to Infiltrate and Divide Europe.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.256%  to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.0 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.31 +.05%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.41%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (FLR)/.25
• (IIVI)/.78
• (JKS)/.75
• (NTES)/32.05
• (TPR)/-.61
• (TNK)/2.58
  

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/.95
• (BIDU)/9.80
• (DDS)/4.34
• (MYGN)/-.49
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.4% gain in June.
• The Export Prices Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.4% gain in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 1100K versus 1186K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 15800K versus 16107K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, German Inflation Data reports, China New Home Sales report, $26B 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (CMC) investor day and the (IDXX) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Vaccine Optimism, Global Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.0 -8.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.61 +.79%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +.09%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.7 -6.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 97 .0 -33.0 points

• Total Put/Call .76 +10.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.36 +34.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 756.02 +.07%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.96 -2.19%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.25 -2.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.63 -.77%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 183.72 -1.08%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.14 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 15.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  84.5 +3.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.5 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.33 -.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.

• Yield Curve 50.5 +5.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.75 USD/Metric Tonne -2.21%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 249.1 +23.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 209.10 -3.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.3 -6.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/tech/industrial/medical/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -4.5% 2) Gaming -3.9% 3) Education -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TRUP, OSTK, W, BA, PINC, PCTY, GIII, BEAM, VRT, LRN, ADVM, FBC, CHEF, WYNN, CUK, SGMO, ALEC, HCAT, GRPN, DNLI, PLUG, PSNL, INO, SRNE, OTRK, CODX, NVAX, SMCI and OSPN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HST 2) ANGI 3) PFNX 4) TCO 5) CSCO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TGI 2) SMRT 3) VRCA 4) FULC  5) LMND
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +2.8% 2) Video Gaming +2.7% 3) Alt Energy +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• XPEL, TWST, EAT, BLDR, PRTS, APPS, EXPI, MCRB, AEO, TVTY, NET and KKR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BGCP 2) TRIP 3) CORN 4) BIG 5) AN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TUFN 2) TSLA 3) AEO 4) AN 5) QCOM

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -29.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 66.2% of Issues Advancing, 30.9% Declining
• 66 New 52-Week Highs, 0 New Lows
• 48.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.8%
• Vix 22.2 -7.7%
• Total Put/Call .70 +1.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.50 +48.5%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Poor Squeezed by Surging Food Prices and Stagnant Wages.
• Asian Stocks Drift After U.S. Losses; Gold Steady. Asian stocks drifted Wednesday after their U.S. peers retreated on doubts over the timing of a spending package from Washington. Gold steadied after tumbling the most in seven years. Shares ticked higher in Japan and fluctuated in South Korea and Australia. S&P 500 futures edged higher after the benchmark fell for the first time in eight trading sessions as investors sold some of the rally’s biggest winners. Some traders cited comments from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell saying stimulus talks are at a stalemate as a catalyst for the declines. Treasury yields held their overnight rise. New Zealand’s main stock gauge fell about 2% after evidence of new coronavirus cases in the country forced fresh restrictions. Crude oil was little changed. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 9:06 a.m. in Tokyo. The index fell 0.8% on Tuesday. Japan’s Topix Index rose 0.6%. Korea’s Kospi Index rose 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.1%. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 fell 1.8%.
• Oil Dips Lower After Facing Resistance at Key Technical Level.  
• Central Bank Reprieve, Youth Hit Hard, Australia Splits: Eco Day.
• Hedge Funds Warn Crowded Dollar Shorts in Danger of Backfiring.
• Stimulus Impasse Risks Dragging to September, Imperiling Economy.
• Kamala Harris Brings Prosecutor’s Legacy to Biden Ticket, for Better or Worse.
  
• U.S. Cases Up 0.9%; Texas Tops 500,000 Infections: Virus Update.  
• New York, Miami Leading America in Mortgage Delinquencies.  
• Small Businesses Are Dying by the Thousands — And No One Is Tracking the Carnage. 
• Gundlach Says Trump Will Win, Calls Harris Too Charismatic.

Wall Street Journal:

• Harris Named as Biden’s Running Mate in Historic Vice Presidential Choice.
• Kamala Harris Won’t Satisfy Progressives.
• TikTok Tracked User Data Using Tactic Banned by Google.
• Airbnb Plans to File for IPO in August.
• Fox News Launches International Streaming Service.
• After Chicago Looting and Coronavirus, Businesses Consider Closing Shop.
  

Fox News:

• President reveals why he was surprised Biden chose 'nasty' Harris as running mate.
  

CNBC.com:

• McConnell urges White House, Democrats to restart coronavirus relief negotiations.
• Trump says U.S. has reached deal with Moderna for 100 million doses of coronavirus vaccine.
• After-hours buzz: Tesla, Eastman Kodak, Shutterstock and more.

MarketWatch.com:     

• Lemonade stock declines following first public quarterly results.
  
• Opinion: As Big Ten cancels its football season because of COVID-19, college sports programs are facing a financial apocalypse.
  
• U.S. will eventually experience ‘the normal effects of recession,’ says J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Dimon.

Zero Hedge:

• Facebook Cracks Down On 'Fake' Local News Networks Run By Political Operatives.
• Biden Picks Kamala Harris As Running Mate.
• Central Bank Balance Sheets To Hit $28 Trillion Next Year.
• Exposing COVID-19's "Orgy Of Incoherence".
• Commercial Real Estate Bankruptcy Legislation Introduced.
• Pennsylvania Is Playing Politics With Drug Rationing.
• Peak Insanity: Tesla Adds $16 Billion In Market Cap After Announcing 5-For-1 Stock Split.
• CNN Is Hosed If Trump Loses: Former Exec.
• Texas Becomes Third State To Pass Half A Million Confirmed COVID-19 Cases: Live Updates.
• "The Greatest Pull-Forward In History": Why This Recession Is Different, Similar, & Worse.
• Shares Of Jimmy Lai's Newspaper Soar As Hong Kong Vows To "Fight On" Against CCP Crackdown.
• Apple Shares Slump After Evercore Warns Of "Surprisingly Negative" Chinese Smartphone Data.
• Big 10 Becomes First 'Power Five' Conference To Delay Football Season.
• Silver Crashes Most Since Lehman Bankruptcy.
• Far-Left Democrat Rep. Pramila Jayapal Brags About Manipulating Joe Biden.
• Economic Prosperity Is No Longer The Priority. Guess What Happens Next...
• Majority Of Americans Think Biden Unlikely To Finish 4 Year Term In White House.
• Surging Gun Sales Triggers Second Ammo Shortage Of This Year.
• WTI 'Off The Lows' After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.
• Liquidation: Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin All Puked.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Xinjiang Region Pushes More Lockdown Measures In Response to Virus, Drawing Residents’ Ire.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25%  to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.07 -.%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.11%.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.36%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (EAT)/-1.37
• (VIPS)/1.92
  

After the Close:

• (CACI)/3.47
• (CSCO)/.74
• (LYFT)/-.97
• (SPTN)/.34
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in June.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June. 
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,523,000 barrels versus a -7,373,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -424,110 barrels versus a +419,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +552,440 barrels versus a +1,591,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.02% versus a +.1% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for July is estimated at -$137.5B versus -$119.7B in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK GDP report, China Loan Data report, $38B 10Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and metals/mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.