Today's Headlines

 

Bloomberg:  

• Postal Service Warns 46 States of Delays to Mail-In Ballots.  
• U.S. Stocks Are Keeping China’s Amateur Investors Awake at Night.
• High-Priced S&P 500 Stumbles on the Brink of Making History.
• Oil Drops With IEA Demand Outlook Pointing to Weakness Ahead.
• Borrowing to Buy Stocks Pushes China’s Record Household Debt.
• Stocks Ignore Stimulus Rift, Sowing Worries on Wall Street.
• Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked.  
• Two Million Californians Go Dark and More Heat Is Coming.  
• U.S. Cases Climb; Florida Deaths Pass 200 Again: Virus Update.  
• Covid-19 Saliva Test Partly Funded by NBA Gets FDA Authorization.  
• Life Without Football Will Trounce America’s College Towns.

Wall Street Journal:

• Election Officials Seek Answers Over Mail-In Ballots.
• Working Parents Are Hitting Their Breaking Point—And Paying for It.
• California’s Next Tax Increase.
• Epic Games’ Founder Tim Sweeney Is Fighting Apple and Google. He’s Been Preparing For Years.
• Stimulus Stalemate Leaves Vulnerable Lawmakers Empty-Handed.

CNBC:

• Election officials warn it could take weeks to determine results in November.
• Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change.
• Lucid Motors has ambitious plans to defy skeptics and take on Tesla.
• ‘It’s nerve-racking’ — Millions of Americans are still furloughed and unsure when they will return to work.
• Trump orders ByteDance to divest from its U.S. TikTok business within 90 days.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (PANW), (TSN), (PG), (CL), (FTNT), (LEN), (AMZN) and (MRK).

MarketWatch.com:   

• Cisco’s Earnings Lesson: Tech Isn’t Immune to Covid-19.
• Tepper's Appaloosa loads up on new stakes in AT&T, Visa, PayPal, Disney, and Mastercard.  
• Stock market looks like ‘hapless Wile E. Coyote, running off the edge of a cliff,’ says behavioral economist.

Fox News:

• Tensions simmer as Obama has doubts about Biden: report.   
• USPS warns it can't guarantee mail-in ballots will arrive in time.
• New York Democrats furious, ‘speechless’ after NYPD union endorses Trump.
  

Zero Hedge:  

• "Ghost Town": Shocking Dystopian Video Of NYC Shows An Abandoned And Boarded Up 5th Avenue.
• Conservative Journalist Arrested & Jailed Ahead Of 'ShadowGate' Documentary Release.
• China's Landlords Hit With First Rent Price Slump As Economy Falters.
• 'Black Lives Matter'-Mob Demands White People Give Up Their Homes.
• YouTube To End Election "Interference"... By Interfering With The Free Press.
• Watch As Biden's Sheepdogs Eject Docile Journalists Before Anyone Can Ask Questions.
• Crony Capitalist Execs Cheer Selection Of Kamala Harris As Dem VP.
• 52% Of Democrats Wish Someone Else Were Their Nominee Vs Only 25% Of Republicans.
• Chicago Shuts Down Its Business District Overnight This Weekend Due To Continued Riots And Looting.
• Political Correctness & The Cancel Culture Is "Bad Religion Run Amuck".
• EMTs Are Leaving Their Jobs In Alarming Numbers Due To The Pandemic.
• Latin American Economies Will See "Record-Breaking Contraction" This Year.
• Sellin: Unless True Origin Of COVID-19 Is Identified, Another Chinese Pandemic Is Assured.
• Once We Have An Approved COVID-19 Vaccine, Then What?
• Did Buffett Just Bet Against The US? Berkshire Buys Barrick Gold, Dumps Goldman.
  
• Hillary Clinton Willing To Serve In Biden Administration.
• Empty Apartments in Manhattan Hit Record High As Two Year Crisis Begins.
• 61% Of Parents Fear Remote Learning Will Negatively Impact Finances.
• As Chicago Nears Panic, Lightfoot's Partisan Blather On National Television Only Hurts.
• Why Soros Just Called The Market A Bubble.
• Gold Slips Most Since March As Stocks See Best 100-Day Run... Ever.

Business Insider: 

• Facebook is calling out Apple for refusing to reduce its 30% App Store fee for a new feature that could help small business owners during the pandemic.
• SCOTT GALLOWAY: Why TikTok is unlikely to be banned in the US, despite plenty of US apps being banned in China.  
• A Nevada county mailed out 1.3 million ballots for its primary election but 1 in 5 were never delivered.
• Fauci says 'there's no reason' in-person voting shouldn't be safe with masks and proper social distancing.
• Jack Dorsey said Twitter already wanted to 'decentralize' its offices before the coronavirus hit because 'no one wants to move to San Francisco anymore'.

The Epoch Times:

• Uyghur Group Urges IOC to Move 2022 Winter Games From Beijing.
• Is China in Danger of Being Locked Out of Global Financial System?
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,369.76 +.56%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 27,880.60 +1.6%

• NASDAQ 10,991.42 -.19%

• Russell 2000 1,577.26 +.53%

• S&P 500 High Beta 44.12 +3.69%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 161.61 -.19%

• Wilshire 5000 34,338.68 +.73%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,129.66 +.42%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,195.92 +.99%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 656.39 +.94%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,260.92 +.28%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,903.62 +.41%

• Transports 10,967.65 +3.9%

• Utilities 825.44 -2.1%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 53.08 +2.87%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.15 -.17%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,218.93 +.18%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 905.23 +1.23%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 421,158 +.62%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 386 -74

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -47.5 -1.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 536,266 +.69%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,032,921 +2.03%

• Total Put/Call .71 -5.6%

• OEX Put/Call 1.75 +62.6%

• ISE Sentiment 98.0 +12.0 points

• NYSE Arms .86 -21.3%

• Volatility(VIX) 22.21 -.90%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.76 +2.5%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.17 -3.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.18 -3.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,555.28 -1.22%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.555 Trillion -.46%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$18.818 Million

• AAII % Bulls 30.0 +29.0%

• AAII % Bears 42.1 -11.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 149.21 +1.55%

• Crude Oil 42.07 +.82%

• Reformulated Gasoline 124.58 +1.62%

• Natural Gas 2.35 +4.79%

• Heating Oil 123.98 +.76%

• Gold 1,945.50 -4.5%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 179.30 -.79%

• Copper 285.70 +2.34%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 286.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.38%

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.22 USD/Metric Tonne +3.54%

• Lumber 722.30 +14.3%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 832.33 +2.55%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +20.5% +8.75 percentage points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -4.1% n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 100.0% unch.

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -5.47 +16.2%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 213.17 -22.3%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 150.76 +.47%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 253.30 +30.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 203.4 -8.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.1 +16.0 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 9/16

• US Dollar Index 93.04 -.38%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,613.15 +.28%

• Bitcoin/USD 11,816.95 +2.20%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.77 +1.08%

• Yield Curve 55.0 +11.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield .69% +13.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.918 Trillion +.18%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.16 -.79%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 292.77 -.05%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.5-2.25 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.16 -2.91%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 227.28 +4.85%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.83 -1.99%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.37 -6.6%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 92.77 -2.04%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.98 -.02%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65% +3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 18.75 +2.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 67.72 +4.43%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 435.0 +2.29%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.36 -1.11%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 189.78 +.23%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 86.75 +5.5 basis points
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 68.75 +1.7%

• M1 Money Supply $5.490 Trillion +2.38%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,009.5 -.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 1,252,750 -6.4%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 10.6% -160.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.96% +8.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 852.80 +6.76%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.7 -1.2 points

• Weekly Retail Sales -3.4% +380.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.18/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,577.0 +5.1%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 880.53 +1.8%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 80.05 +12.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,054 +2.5%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -.4%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +11.0%

• Shipping +6.6%

• Papers +4.9%

• Airlines +4.6%

• Steel +4.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Utilities -2.1% 

• Biotech -2.2%

• Networking -3.2%

• Disk Drives -3.2%

• Gold & Silver -6.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• DDS, MITK, CNXM, EXPI, SHLL, AMAT, CXW, JWN, KTOS and MSGN
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)

• INSM, PSTG, RETA, BEAM, SRNE, IIVI, SWTX, PRPL, BTAI and CODX
  

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 -1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.75 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.18 +.9%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.81 +.07%

• ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -2.0 points

• Total Put/Call .70 +2.94%

• NYSE Arms .87 -28.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.74 +1.36%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 764.41 +1.09%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.51 +2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.5 +.25 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.61 +.87%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 189.90 +.61%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.98 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 18.75 +3.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  87.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.75 +.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.33 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 54.5 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.22 USD/Metric Tonne +1.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 253.3 +3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 203.40 -3.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.1 -3.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -139 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -99 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.6% 2) Alt Energy -1.2% 3) Networking -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PSTG, RETA, BEAM, MCRB, AZPN, SDGR, RDUS, SRNE, IIVI, DKNG, SWTX, MYGN, PRPL, FLGT, PTGX, EVH, BTAI, NOVA, MDP and CODX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AR 2) WHR 3) AMAT 4) DVY 5) M
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MDP 2) IQ 3) GSX 4) KODK  5) PASG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume