Friday, August 21, 2020

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +2.3% 2) Homebuilding +1.3% 3) Education +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HARP, BKE, CYRX, OSUR, SHLL, ARCT, DE and RYN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KEYS 2) FL 3) DE 4) RSX 5) TAP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BKE 2) BNTX 3) DE 4) EL 5) BJ
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:       
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:       
Zero Hedge:  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5%  to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.31 +.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.43%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.35%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (BZUN)/1.72
  • (BKE)/.06
  • (DE)/1.23
  • (FL)/.69
After the Close:
  • (UI)/1.37
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • Markit US Manufacturing PMI for August is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 50.9 in July.
  • Markit US Services PMI for August is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 50.0 in July.
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for July is estimated to rise to 5.4M versus 4.72M in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.09 -.10%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.45 +2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.54 +.24%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 +2.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.30 +23.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.09 +.82%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 779.86 +.49%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.83 +1.45%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.25 +1.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.02 +1.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 187.19 +1.11%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.23 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  88.5 +1.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.20 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .9% unch.
  • Yield Curve 50.75 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 123.75 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 249.6 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 182.20 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.4 +3.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63 -4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +90 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -2.3% 2) Banks -1.9% 3) Alt Energy -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • RVLV, ICHR, GRPN, CREE, STL, SBNY, LRCX, ULTA, PGNY, SPWR, FANG, LYFT, ARWR, SRPT, SGMO, EL, CELH, NDSN, CWH, PLCE, GOCO and GRWG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SABR 2) GRWG 3) CAKE 4) GT 5) ULTA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FUV 2) SRPT 3) BAC 4) REGN  5) AAL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) REITs +1.3% 2) Gold & Silver +1.0% 3) Software +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • OTRK, FLGT, RLGY, FSLY, ESTC, CNK, AKBA, HASI, LB, SNPS and XPEL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PSQ 2) MPLX 3) DISH 4) VKTX 5) MIK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SNPS 2) LB 3) SHAK 4) GAN 5) VIR
Charts: