Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Boris Johnson Pressured on Fresh Lockdown as Virus at ‘Critical Stage’.
• Germany, France Impose Strict Monthlong Curbs to Rein in Virus.
• Samsung Warns of Weaker Outlook Even as Profit Beats.
• Stock Losses Spread to Asia; Dollar Holds Gain: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks opened lower after shares tumbled in the U.S. and Europe, as rising coronavirus infections and tougher lockdowns added to worries about the economic hit from the pandemic. Losses were more modest across Asia than in the U.S. session overnight. S&P 500 contracts ticked higher. The benchmark lost 3.5% for its biggest drop since June, while a gauge of U.S. equity volatility surged. The dollar held its overnight advance and Treasuries were little changed, keeping 10-year yields around 0.78%. Oil edged up after tumbling more than 5% on concern rising infections will sap demand. In China, nearly 1,000 firms are due to release third-quarter earnings on Thursday, with traders looking to see if the results confirm the nation’s accelerating recovery. The yen was steady ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting that’s expected to leave the key interest rate and asset purchases unchanged. S&P 500 Index futures added 0.6% as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge dropped 3.5% on Wednesday. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.9%. South Korea’s Kospi index was down 1.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 1.7%.   
• China Plan Into 2030s, WTO Chaos, ECB Stimulus Surprise: Eco Day.
• New York Cases Top 500,000; New Jersey Hospitalizations Break 1,000.
  
• Regeneron Covid-19 Therapy Reduces Viral Load, Need for Care.  
• U.S. Black-Owned Firms Make Surprise Comeback to Pre-Covid Level.  
• Las Vegas Vehicle Traffic Rises for First Time Since Pandemic.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Bidens and Tony Bobulinski. Joe Biden is asking voters to elect him on the strength of his character, honesty and judgment. Which is why Mr. Biden owes a response to new allegations about his son Hunter’s business deals.
• Twitter’s Censorship Method.
• Vote for Joe Biden? Seriously?
• Masks Are a Distraction From the Pandemic Reality.
• States Face Biggest Cash Crisis Since the Great Depression.
• Russian in Cyprus Was Behind Key Parts of Discredited Dossier on Trump.
• AMD, Nvidia Chip Away at Intel’s Semiconductor Dominance.

Fox News:

• Reporters fail to question Biden about Bobulinski’s claims in rare Q & A.
• Twitter boss defends censorship of Biden scandal in heated hearing.
• Trump: Philadelphia police shooting a 'terrible event,' rioting comes from group Joe Biden 'supports'.
  
• What the protests, riots in Philadelphia could mean for presidential election.
• Philadelphia DA warns Trump 'I've got something for you' after president's call for poll watchers in his city.  
• Citywide curfew imposed in fear of 3rd night of violence.
  

CNBC.com:

• UPS CEO on holiday peak season: ‘We’ve been planning for this for months’.
• Jim Cramer reveals five ‘Covid-proof bull markets’ to find stock opportunities.
• Ford blows away earnings expectations as consumers buy up trucks during pandemic.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Pinterest, Ford, eBay & more.
• Girl Scouts deletes social media congratulations to Barrett on Supreme Court seat after angry backlash.
  

MarketWatch.com:          

• Donald Trump will win re-election and a revolution is coming, billionaire investor predicts.  
• Fast start for coronavirus drug boosts Gilead earnings, but stock sinks on forecast.  
• Pinterest’s pandemic surge continues, stock jumps more than 20% toward fresh record highs.  
• GrubHub orders keep piling up — but so do its losses.  
• Etsy blows past expectations with mask sales and more.  
• EBay gives upbeat earnings outlook, but stock dips in late trading.

NY Post: 

• Tony Bobulinski’s evidence means media should push Biden to answer big questions.

Zero Hedge:

• A 20-Year-Old Book Suggests China Is Already Quietly At War With The US.
• Dorsey Admits To Mob-Driven Censorship On Twitter During Heated Section 230 Hearing.
• Fighter Jet Intercepts "Non-Responsive" Plane Near Trump Rally.
• "Who Is Miles Taylor?" - Trump Assails White House Mole: "They Should Fire, Shame & Punish Everybody Associated With This Fraud".
• How Long Will It Take To Count All The Votes?
• NSA Dodges Questions About Controversial "Backdoors" In Tech Products.
• A Biden Family Special Prosecutor In 2021?
• NBA Braces For Record 40% Drop In Revenue In 2020-2021 Season.
• "A Lot Of Hoarding" - Americans Race To Supermarkets As Second Wave Arrives.
• NY Gov. Cuomo Reaped $6.2 Million In Campaign Cash From 347 State Vendors Who Pocketed $7 Billion Since 2014.
• Wall Street Banks, And Their Employees, Now Officially Lean Democrat.
• France Joins Germany In Reviving Nationwide Lockdown As COVID-19 Cases Soar Across Europe: Live Updates.
• Lockdown Loquaciousness Launches Licentious Liquidations.

The Epoch Times:

• Republican Senators Question College Board Over Alleged Ties With Chinese Government.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.25 +1.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.83 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index -646.0 +15.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 34.70 -3.61%
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.79%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.69%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALXN)/2.59
• (ADS)/2.27
• (AMT)/2.01
• (BUD)/.77
• (APTV)/.82
• (BAX)/.72
• (BWA)/.79
• (BC)/1.32
• (CCL)/-1.90
• (CMCSA)/.51
• (COP)/-.31
• (DNKN)/.80
• (DD)/.75
• (FSS)/.38
• (FCN)/1.36
• (GPI)/6.55
• (ICE)/.98
• (IP)/.49
• (K)/.86
• (KHC)/.62
• (MDC)/1.22
• (MRNA)/-.37
• (TAP)/1.03
• (NEM)/.83
• (OSK)/-.31
• (OSTK)/-.31
• (PENN)/.44
• (PWR)/1.09
• (RL)/.87
• (RCL)/-4.95
• (SHOP)/.50
• (TROW)/2.44
• (TPR)/.22
• (YUM)/.79
  

After the Close:

• (ATVI)/.65
• (GOOG)/11.17
• (AMZN)/7.36
• (AAPL)/.70
• (CAR)/.25
• (CVNA)/-.29
• (CAKE)/-.38
• (DECK)/2.68
• (LOCO)/.22
• (ETH)/.35
• (FB)/1.91
• (FTNT)/.78
• (ILMN)/.80
• (MGM)/-1.02
• (MHK)/2.14
• (PSMT)/.60
• (QDEL)/4.70
• (SHAK)/-.21
• (SKYW)/-.19
• (SBUX)/.31
• (TRUP)/.01
• (TWTR)/.05
• (X)/-1.40
• (OLED)/.49
• (VRTX)/2.32
• (AUY)/.08
• (ZEN)/.11
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 770K versus 787K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 7775K versus 8373K prior.
• 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +32.0% versus a -31.4% decline in 2Q.
• 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +38.9% versus a -33.2% decline in 2Q.
  
• 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.9% versus a -1.8% decline in 2Q. 
• 3Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +4.0% versus a -.8% decline in 2Q.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +8.8% gain in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB decision/press conference, German Unemployment report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (VEEV) investor day and the (SCHW) fall business update could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finished mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Biden Presidency/Tax Hike Fears, Virus Shutdown Worries, Oil Decline, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 39.5 +18.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index -604.0 -426.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.94 -.48%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.64 +2.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 75.05 +19.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.15 +47.4%

• NYSE Arms .59 -58.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.71 +6.69%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 831.23 +2.12%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.75 +9.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.61 +1.93%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 220.31 +5.73%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.67 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 13.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  81.5 -1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.87 -.72%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 62.5 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 114.5 -2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.80 -6.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.30 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -258 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -37 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/consumer staple/tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -3.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -6.1% 2) Gold & Silver -6.0% 3) Oil Service -5.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RQI, ACC, PXD, JELD, XOM, BCOV, LNTH, ZBH, OC, USFC, SLG, IBM, SMPL, LYFT, EFC, MWA, FLT, WAB, CSQ, PRLB, LYV, DCI, CEQP, CAT, WEX, SF, EFX, FVAC, BSX, NEM, V, MC, ATSG, LAMR, AVB, EOG, MAIN, BEN, GKOS, FVAC, SKX, CME, HOG, HGV, FIX, ROP, RTX, MA, IEX, JNPR, UPS, SIX, EQR, ENVA, GRA, CUK, ZYXI, CCL, STRL, UNM, AKAM, DT, DXCM, NCR, CHRW, HA, BBBY, EVBG, SUM, UVE, CHEF and ELY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BKLN 2) JWN 3) DXCM 4) HPQ 5) AKAM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EVBG 2) EQR 3) MA 4) UPS 5) CME
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +.8% 2) Insurance -1.5% 3) Biotech -1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TUP, SRRK, CLGX, HZO, FSLR, EQH, UTHR, TCBI, CLAR, BG and VIVO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TUP 2) CHRW 3) ELY 4) FIS 5) EQR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AIZ 2) FNWB 3) CROX 4) LLY 5) EXAS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

 

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +23.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 7.9% of Issues Advancing, 90.5% Declining
• 11 New 52-Week Highs, 85 New Lows
• 49.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index -647.0 -469.0 points
• Vix 39.4 +18.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.13 +44.9%
• TRIN/Arms .64 -55.2%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Indian Economy Accelerates in September as Animal Spirits Soar.  
• Korea Consumer Confidence Jumps Most Since 2009 as Virus Eases.
• U.K. Reports Highest Daily Covid Death Toll Since May.  
• France Readies Curbs; U.S. Hospitalizations Climb: Virus Update   
• The Pessimist’s Guide to Jack Ma’s Record-Breaking Ant Group IPO.
• U.S. Stock Futures Decline; Dollar Pushes Higher: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Pares Gains on Expectations of Rising U.S. Crude Supplies.  
• Global Central Banks, Korea’s Surge, Virtual Christmas: Eco Day.
• Cuomo Seeks to Keep 95% of U.S. Out of New York as Virus Rages.    
• World’s Biggest ETF Is Losing Cash Faster Than Any of Its Peers.  
• The Trump Tax Cut Wasn’t Just for the Rich.

Wall Street Journal:

• France Emerges as Covid-19 Epicenter as Cases Surge Across Europe.
• Twitter’s Jack Dorsey: A Hands-Off CEO in a Time of Turmoil.
• Visa’s Planned Purchase of Plaid Faces Antitrust Scrutiny at the Justice Department.

Fox News:

• EXCLUSIVE: Ex-Hunter partner rips Joe Biden's denials in scandal.  
• Philly police get backup in fear of 2nd night of violence over deadly cop shooting of Black man.
• Facebook accused of censoring anti-Biden ad geared toward minority voters.
  

CNBC.com:

• Chipmakers AMD and Nvidia are using stock surges to make industry’s biggest acquisitions.
• Facebook political advertisers say their ads are being blocked even though they follow the rules.
• JetBlue CEO says flight bookings for holiday season have not yet been hurt by rising Covid cases.

Zero Hedge:

• "Plausible Deniability": Whistleblower Describes Brazen Biden-China Dealings In Explosive Interview With Tucker Carlson.
• Hunter Biden Confesses Partnership With China 'Spy Chief' -- Fumes After He And Joe Named As Criminal Witnesses: Audio.
• The COVID "Casedemic" & Biden's "Dark Winter" Plan.
• JPMorgan Asks "What If Trump Wins?".
• CNN's "Not Even Pretending Anymore".
  
• Meet Eric Feigl-Ding: How A Nutritionist-Turned-Politician Became A "COVID-19 Expert" With A Far-Left Agenda.
• The "Wokeness" Wars Coming To Your Town.
• Project Veritas Infiltrates Texas 'Ballot Chasing' Ring Targeting Senior Citizens.
• They're Going All-Out To Stop Trump Declaring Victory.
• WTI Tumbles After Bigger Than Expected Crude Build.
• "Priced To Perfection" Microsoft Smashes Expectations, But Shares Barely Budge.
• Bitcoin Outperforms Nasdaq Over Last 12 Months, Bonds Bid As Dollar Skids.

@CurtisHouck:

• This is really important, so I'm rewinding and putting this all in one video. Here was Bobulinski telling #Tucker about what the equity arrangements would be that involved, yes, Joe Biden. (video)
  
• This is maybe THE clip from this interview. Bobulinski to #Tucker: "I remember looking at Jim Biden in saying how are you guys getting away with this? Like, aren't you concerned? And he looked at me and he laughed a little bit and said. 'plausible deniability.'" (video)
  
• Bobulinski to #Tucker: "I want to simplify this for the American people as much as I can...In that email, James Gillard goes through intimate detail of what each individual's requests were from a compensation perspective and how the equity in the enterprise would be divvied up." (video)

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Tightens Ideological Grip Over Chinese Society, Leaked Documents Reveal.
• Xinjiang COVID-19 Outbreak Likely Worse Than Official Total, Critics Say.
• Medical Community Is Turning ‘Blind Eye’ to Forced Organ Harvesting in China: Experts.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.25 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.27 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index -177.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.80 +1.52%
• FTSE 100 futures -.6%.

• S&P 500 futures -.52%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.43%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANTM)/4.18
• (ADP)/.98
• (BA)/-2.23
• (BSX)/.25
• (EAT)/-.16
• (BG)/.20
• (CME)/1.44
• (DBD)/.27
• (GNRC)/1.71
• (GD)/2.88
• (GE)/-.03
• (LM)/.85
• (MA)/1.66
• (NSC)/2.37
• (OC)/1.29
• (R)/-.32
• (SEE)/.66
• (TUP)/.41
• (UPS)/1.89
  

After the Close:

• (AEM)/.69
• (AMGN)/3.74
• (AVB)/2.17
• (CERN)/.72
• (CGNX)/.33
• (CTSH)/.90
• (CXO)/1.22
• (EBAY)/.83
• (FSLY)/-.01
• (F)/.18
• (GILD)/1.84
• (KLAC)/2.79
• (LVGO)/.06
• (OII)/-.15
• (ORLY)/6.44
• (RCII)/1.02
• (NOW)/1.03
• (SAVE)/-2.67
• (SFM)/.35
• (RGR)/.98
• (SPWR)/-.08
• (TDOC)/-.30
• (URI)/4.34
• (V)/1.10
• (WERN)/.67
• (WDC)/.55
• (WH)/.31
• (YUMC)/.49
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated to widen to -$84.5B versus -$82.9B in Aug.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,152,910 barrels versus a -1,002,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -19,270 barrels versus a +1,895,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,989,090 barrels versus a -3,832,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.65% versus a -2.2% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of Canada decision, Bank of Japan decision, 5Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.