Stocks Substantially Higher into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.4 -7.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 372.0 +212.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.89 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.9 -10.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -17.5%

• NYSE Arms .74 -53.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.07 -6.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 803.29 -2.53%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.37 -8.92%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.73 -4.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 192.31 -5.08%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.37 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.

• TED Spread 13.75 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.25 -3.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.71 +.88%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 59.25 -6.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.68%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 120.50 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 96.90 -4.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.50 -5.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +138 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +217 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -48 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/consumer staple/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -1.5% 2) Biotech -.4% 3) Homebuilding -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ANTM, PXD, CELH, STAA, WMS, CEQP, SRPT, XRAY, GDDY, LNTH, MTG, NBIX, BIIB, PCTY, AXNX, STRA, INCY, PAYC, RGNX, ATHA, INGN, RCUS, FROG, ELF, VAPO, OSUR, ECOM, BLUE, PING and HBI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XEC 2) CLVS 3) MYL 4) QCOM 5) CF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BLUE 2) PING 3) BMRN 4) GOCO 5) F
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +8.2% 2) Gold & Silver +6.8% 3) Steel +5.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UPWK, REZI, MDP, TTGT, ODP, WCC, WK, IIPR, CAR, YETI, IIVI, QCOM, COUP, ALB, VG, VVNT, TPIC, CALX, VECO, KURA, FSLR, LASR, QRVO, SNDX, MTEM, CAH, ADTN, CLH, GTN, SATS, VSTO, CRS, NXST, TPX, SWKS, RPD, BX, EXPE, GM, IONS, SMPL, MTCH and PRMW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ANGI 2) GLUU 3) MYL 4) ZNGA 5) MGNI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UPWK 2) QCOM 3) REZI 4) AMD 5) QRVO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +30.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 82.9% of Issues Advancing, 14.9% Declining
• 105 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 55.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 371.0 +206.0 points
• Vix 27.0 -8.6%
• Total Put/Call .78 -19.6%
• TRIN/Arms .87 -44.9%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Seoul Rises to Asia Real Estate Leader After Controlling Covid.  
• India Is Spending Less on Growth Drivers With Deficit Blowout Risk Looming. 
• Singapore’s Trade Minister Warns of Economic Risks from Divided U.S.  
• Indonesia Set for First Recession Since Asian Financial Crisis.
• Italy Adds Restrictions; Denmark Finds Mutation: Virus Update.
• Stocks Advance as Election Bets Retooled; Bonds Up: Markets Wrap.   Investors frantically bid up technology and drug stocks Wednesday, sending major averages to the biggest rallies in five months, as they grew more confident that the tightly contested outcome would ensure key elements of the bull market remain intact for years to come. A narrow victory by either Democratic challenger Joe Biden or President Donald Trump, coupled with a split legislature, will make it unlikely that Trump’s 2017 corporate tax cuts -- an important driver to stock gains -- are rolled back, as Biden has pledged to do. The failure by the Democrats to clearly sweep Congress and the White House does pare back bets that traders had made on a massive fiscal stimulus package, though some aid remains likely this year. At the same time it adds to pressure on the Federal Reserve -- another crucial force behind the bull market -- to pump money into an economy that was throttled by the pandemic. After the cash close in New York, Equity futures rose in Japan and Hong Kong, and the offshore yuan advanced.
• Fed Pressure, Down Under QE, First Slump Since Suharto: Eco Day.
• Trump Backers Enter Detroit Vote-Count Center, Bypassing Police.
• Trumpism Is Here to Stay, No Matter Who’s in the White House.
• Pelosi’s Power Takes a Hit With Diminished U.S. House Majority.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Live Election Results 2020.  
  
• Treasury Yields Fall on Reduced Stimulus Expectations.
  
• A Wisconsin Recount: How It Works.
  
• Trump Campaign Opens Legal Fronts in Pennsylvania, Michigan.
• Senate Hinges on Five Uncalled Races With GOP Holding Edge.
• Trump’s Florida Election Win Hinged on Big Gains in Miami-Dade.
• America’s CEOs Parse Uncertain Election Results and See More Gridlock Ahead.
• Tuesday’s Big Loser: Identity Politics.
• The Covid-19 Election.
• Supermarkets Get New Looks as E-Commerce Grabs Hold.

Fox News:

• LIVE UPDATES: The latest in the 2020 election.
• Republican vote challengers denied access to ballot count, chaos erupts.
• MATT GORMAN: Whether it's Trump or Biden, Dems face reckoning unlike any they've had in a generation.
• BEN SHAPIRO: 2020 election's one big message -- voters refuse to accept woke media's narrative on race.
• Trump, Biden teams ready for potentially long legal battles over.
• What are the rules for pursing recounts in key battlegrounds?
  

CNBC.com:

• Why Wells Fargo won’t buy the post-election market bounce.
• Bezos sells more than $3 billion worth of Amazon shares.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Qualcomm, Match Group, Expedia & more.

MarketWatch.com:         

• Democrats and Republicans are confident their candidate will win — and that could affect consumer spending after the election.
  
• Google searches for ‘coffee’ and ‘liquor stores’ break records as election results trickle in.  
• The U.S. could split up, Gundlach says. Here’s how he’d invest for that.   
• Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator, margin levels and technicals agree: This stock market could be in trouble. 
  

Zero Hedge:

• Biden Launches Presidential 'Transition Team', Trump Asks SCOTUS To Intervene.
• Oregon Becomes First State To Decriminalize Cocaine, Heroin, & Meth; Legalizes Shrooms.
• Detroit Ballot-Counters Board Up Windows, Block Republican Poll-Watchers.
• Twitter Again Refuses To Censor Kathy Griffin's Pic Of Decapitated Trump Head.
• Michigan 'Ballot Dump' Never Happened According To Data Provider, Blames 'Clerical Error'.
• Goldman Warns "Frenzied" SPAC Bubble May Be Ending.
• "It's Time For A New Generation Of Leaders": Moderate Democrats Weigh Ousting Pelosi Over Dismal Election Showing.
• 'Deep State Judge' "Shocked" At USPS Election Failures, May Order Postmaster General To Testify.
• "Those Who Vote Decide Nothing. Those Who Count The Vote Decide Everything...".
• Trump Assembling 'All-Star' Legal Team To Challenge Elections In Close States: Report.
• Stocks & Bonds Surge To Record Post-Election Gain.

9News:

• Trump campaign launches lawsuit after accusations of poll rigging in key state.

The Epoch Times:

• Seven Chinese Provinces Issue COVID-19 Restrictions as Xinjiang Reports More Cases.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 36.75 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.19 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 222.0 +57.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.2 +.09%
• FTSE 100 futures -.1%.

• S&P 500 futures +.2%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.59%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BABA)/13.78
• (ABC)/1.87
• (AZN)/.99
• (AAWW)/2.46
• (GOLD)/.32
• (BDX)/2.54
• (BMY)/1.49
• (CAH)/1.14
• (CI)/4.23
• (DISCA)/.68
• (D)/.99
• (DUK)/1.80
• (GM)/1.43
• (ODP)/1.09
• (PZZA)/.35
• (REGN)/6.99
• (RGEN)/.28
• (SRCL)/.57
• (VMC)/1.61
• (WWW)/.28
• (YETI)/.37
• (ZTS)/.91
  

After the Close:

• (AIG)/.55
• (BGS)/.57
• (BKNG)/14.25
• (CZR)/-2.03
• (ED)/1.51
• (DLPH)/.10
• (DBX)/.19
• (EA)/.04
• (EOG)/.18
• (EVBG)/-.11
• (IAC)/-.33
• (MCHP)/1.43
• (MNST)/.62
• (NWSA)/-.02
• (PTON)/.12
• (RMAX)/.60
• (RDFN)/.06
• (SQ)/.16
• (STMP)/1.46
• (TTWO)/1.52
• (UBER)/-.49
• (WYNN)/-3.89
• (XPO)/.40
• (YELP)/.03
• (ZG)/.11
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts report.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 735K versus 751K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 7200K versus 7756K prior.
• Preliminary 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +5.6% versus a +10.1% gain in 2Q.
• Preliminary 3Q Unit Labor Costs is estimated to fall -11.0% versus a +9.0% gain in 2Q.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate is estimated at .25%.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US election outcome uncertainty, Fed Press Conference, German Factory Orders report, BoE Inflation report, BoE rate decision, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the Bloomberg weekly Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

 

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Tax-Hike Fears, Less US Election Uncertainty, Oil Gain, Healthcare/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.5 -16.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 182.0 +359.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.80 -.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -3.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.60 -16.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 -38.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -8.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +49.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.29 -6.67%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 825.76 -.59%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.17 -4.23%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.87 -1.18%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.98 -4.83%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.25 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 13.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 +3.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  78.25 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.75 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.20 +.37%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 65.75 -5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.39 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 123.20 -5.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 101.10 +4.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.50 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 -6.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +340 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +265 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/consumer staple/tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long