Thursday, November 19, 2020

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Video Gaming +2.9% 2) Alt Energy +2.2% 3) Gaming +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SONO, BLNK, CIIC, SBE, NUAN, LB, ATKR, FOSL, GDRX, MGNI, VERI, APPN, REZI, RVP, XENT, KOD, FUBO, DMYT, SBGI, SPG and PCVX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WPX 2) CORT 3) AYRO 4) LB 5) FUV
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SONO 2) LB 3) CREE 4) NUAN 5) BILI
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:                             
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News: 
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:         
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
@kylenabecker:

 @RealDonaldTrump: 

The Epoch Times:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 32.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.16 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,046.0 +6.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.85 -.10%
  • FTSE 100 futures -.94%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (BJ)/.65
  • (CPB)/.91
  • (CSIQ)/-.24
  • (M)/-.82
  • (NTES)/2.93
  • (SINA)/.77
  • (PLCE)/.51
  • (WB)/.60
After the Close:
  • (HP)/-.75
  • (INTU)/.42
  • (POST)/.77
  • (ROST)/.62
  • (WSM)/1.48
  • (WDAY)/.67
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 700K versus 709K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 6400K versus 6786K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for Oct. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.7% gain in Sept.
  • Existing Home Sales for Oct. is estimated to fall to 6.46M versus 6.54M in Sept.
11:00 am EST
  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Nov. is estimated to fall to 11.0 versus 13.0 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Inflation Data report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Nov., weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Consumer/Retail Conference, Deutsche Bank Gaming/Loding/Leisure/Restaurant Conference, Canaccord Medtech/Diagnostics Forum, (DOV) investor meeting, (TRN) investor day and the JPMorgan Services Investor Conference could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mounting US Voter Fraud Evidence, Virus Shutdown Worries, Technical Selling, Biotech/Metals&Mining Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.1 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,101.0 -10.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.48 -.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.47 -.19%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.9 -2.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +11.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .70 -18.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 +24.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.97 +.66%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 712.89 -1.39%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.90 -1.15%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 121.0 +1.0 basis piont
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.31 +.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 170.04 -2.08%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.27 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -1.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.75 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.28 +.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 68.0 -5.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 123.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.46%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 66.4 -1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 109.2 +6.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 58.5 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +72 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Medical Equipment -1.4% 3) Steel -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FUBO, EGAN, A, KURA, LTHM, SPT, TMO, LB, MRNA, CIEN, RGEN, FGEN, PII, RAMP, EBS, ASO, NCLH, SIBN, ORA, LOW, GDRX, GTHX, AVYA and ROOT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BX 2) GRPN 3) FCEL 4) DISH 5) LOW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PAYS 2) ATEX 3) TGLS 4) GDRX 5) NCLH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +3.1% 2) Airlines +2.5% 3) Gaming +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KOD, NKLA, RIDE, SDC, TEN, HZO, DMYT, PCG, ODP, DEN, FTAI, WES, REZI, TGT, BLNK, EB, PTGX and LZB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FTAI 2) A 3) XLY 4) MITT 5) TGT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TGT 2) TJX 3) GE 4) KSS 5) NIO
Charts: