Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• Biden Eyes Russia Retaliation After Review of Meddling, Hacking.
• Gasoline Rockets in Europe Despite Demand Blight From Lockdowns.  
• EU Fails to Unify on Astra; Variant Common in U.S.: Virus Update.
• Asia Stocks Eye Mixed Open, U.S. Futures Climb: Markets Wrap.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  
• Top Copper Supplier Is Boosting Output Amid a Record Covid Surge.  
• Rising Pork Demand Drives U.S. Hog Prices to Highest Since 2014.  
• Fed Officials Back Dovish Powell View Despite Brighter Outlook.  
• White House Considering Nearly Doubling Obama’s Climate Pledge.
• Biden Infrastructure Plan Seeks $571 Billion in Transport Funds.
• Biden Tax Plan Targets Fossil Fuel Subsidies Worth $35 Billion.  
• Credit Suisse CEO Faces Anger in the Ranks After Archegos Mess.  
• Intel’s Latest Hail Mary Is a $20 Billion Bet on American Manufacturing.
• Pennsylvania’s $64 Billion School Pension Faces Federal Probe.  
• U.S. Property Taxes Jump Most in Four Years With Sun Belt Catching Up.  
• Robinhood Seeks More Bank Credit Ahead of Planned IPO.

Wall Street Journal:

• Yes, Boycott Baseball.
• Most Big Debt Collectors Backed Off During the Pandemic. One Pressed Ahead.
• New York Taxes Go Skyscraper High.
• Ron DeSantis and ‘Resistance Journalism’.
• Borrowed Money Drives Stock Gains.
• Instacart and DoorDash Plan to Launch Their Own Credit Cards.
• Suspected China Hack of Microsoft Shows Signs of Prior Reconnaissance.

Fox News:  

• Texas Gov. Abbott blames Biden as shocking sex assault allegations at migrant center surface.
• Migrant smugglers using groups of children to divert Border Patrol from adults crossing into US, agents say.
• Border Patrol captures heartbreaking video of abandoned boy.
• Here is what Biden's gun control actions will target.

CNBC.com:

• Biden open to negotiating on corporate tax hike, but says U.S. must act boldly on infrastructure.
• Fed’s Brainard says the economy is improving but is still ‘far from’ where it needs to be.
• Peter Thiel criticizes Google and Apple for being too close to China.

MarketWatch.com:

• These stocks seem expensive now, but in two years you may wish you’d bought them at these prices.

Zero Hedge:

• Joe Biden's Bait-And-Switch Presidency.
• Is Another Family Office Blowing Up: JPM Dumps 9MM Share Block Of ASO After Hours.
• "It's A Biological Fukushima" - Brazil On Track To Pass US In COVID Deaths.
• JPM: It Appears There Is A Worker Shortage.
• Architect Of Reagan Revolution Blasts "Bidenomics".
• 'Pro-Crypto' Peter Thiel Warns Bitcoin "Could Be A Chinese Financial Weapon Against The US".
• Cuomo To Hit Richest New Yorkers With Top Tax Rate Over 50%, More Than Most Europeans Pay.
• Biggest Beat On Record: Consumer Credit Explodes Higher As Americans Rediscover Their Love For Credit Cards.
• Law Student's Instagram Posting Triggers Debate Over Anti-White Speech.
• US Colleges Push To Mandate Student Vaccinations Before Fall Semester.
• JPMorgan's Dimon Admits "Something Has Gone Terribly Wrong" In America... And China Knows It.
• Netanyahu Warns Israel Will "Act" Against Iran If Biden Restores Nuclear Deal.
• Taiwan Warns It Will "Fight To Very Last Day" If China Attacks As US Warship Transits Strait.
• Small Caps & Cryptos Clubbed As Bonds & The Buck Bounce.

Newsmax:

• US Restores Assistance for Palestinians.
• Biden Plans to Unveil Executive Action on Guns on Thursday.
• Burgess Owens to Newsmax TV: Biden Showing 'Cowardice' on Border.
• Latinos Slam Biden For Nominating Only One Hispanic Judge.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: Alex Jones Physically Stops Vehicle After Witnessing Migrant Children Being Stuffed in the Luggage Compartment.
• DC Chief Medical Examiner Announces Cause and Manner of Death of 4 People Who Died During Jan. 6 Riot – Ashli Babbitt Ruled a Homicide Death.
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: ‘Protect Democracy Project’ – The Group Threatening Arizona Auditors Is Connected to Obama, Soros, China and Biden’s DOJ.

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Tests Biden Administration With Provocations in Disputed Waters.
• White House Confirms Biden Administration Not Discussing Beijing Olympics Boycott.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 +3.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 36.0 +2.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.55 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,203.0 +41.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.85 -1.02%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.23%.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (APOG)/.56
• (CAG)/.58
• (STZ)/1.52
  

After the Close:

• (LEVI)/.24
• (PSMT)/1.00
• (WDFC)/1.32
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 680K versus 719K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3638K versus 3794K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Factory Orders report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (EXC) investor meeting, (CRWD) investor briefing and the (SMG) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Dovish Fed Commentary, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.6 -3.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,150.0 +25.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.82 +.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 -.22%

• ISE Sentiment Index 136.0 +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 +14.9%

• NYSE Arms .89 -8.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.95 +.65%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 458.08 -.25%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.90 +1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.12 +3.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.46 +2.6%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.22 +.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 19.0 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.60 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 150.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 163.55 USD/Metric Tonne +.36%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.70 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 170.50 +3.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.60 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -35 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -147 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/energy sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.0% 2) Gaming -2.1% 3) Gold & Silver -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TMDX, IONS, MUDS, APR, GBOX, OM, CONN, PLBY, RMO and FGEN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FANG 2) DUST 3) MDLZ 4) NCLH 5) NLY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FGEN 2) PLUG 3) VERX 4) RIDE 5) CTVA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +3.7% 2) Oil Service +.8% 3) Restaurants +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OUST, FREQ, BHVN, GLSI, AGC, INTZ, KTB, ANF, IDCC, FNKO, NVST, TREE, JOAN, PCT, SGH, ADTN, SNAP, LPI, SQ, MATX, LB, VUZI, ACAD, NUAN, IBRX, MSGE, PRFT, NUAN and CMG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ODT 2) DUST 3) IO 4) COG 5) ANF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BHVN 2) LAZ 3) ANF 4) LB 5) SGH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 40.6% of Issues Advancing, 55.4% Declining
• 156 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 90.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,188.0 +65.0 points
• Vix 17.4 -4.0%
• Total Put/Call .75 +11.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 +6.2%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 33.5 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.63 +.32%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,157.0 -18.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.55 +.27%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.36%.

• S&P 500 futures +.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MSM)/1.03
• (SMPL)/.23
• (RPM)/.30
  

After the Close:

• (RGP)/.03
• (JEF)/.95
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for Feb. is estimated to widen to -$70.5B versus -$68.2B in Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,638,000 barrels versus a -876,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -747,910 barrels versus a -1,735,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +645,910 barrels versus a +2,542,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.85% versus a +2.3% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• March 17 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to rise to $2.8B versus -$1.315B in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China trade balance report, UK trade balance report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Wells Fargo Future Mobility Conference, (COST) March sales results, (CCL) 1Q update and the (LUMN) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.