Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Yuan Strengthens With Yellen Decision Not to Label China on FX.
• Canada Overtakes U.S. in Daily Covid Cases for First Time.
• Goldman Joins PineBridge in Going Bearish on Indonesian Rupiah.  
• India Has 2nd-Most Cases; U.K. Hits Vaccine Target: Virus Update.
• Asia Stocks Climb With U.S. Market Near Record: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Holds Near $60 as Uneven Recovery Holds Back Further Rally. 
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Yellen Spares China, Inflation Guaranteed, Asia’s Boost: Eco Day.
• Day Traders Know a Bubble When They See One, and They Want In.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Green New Deal, in Disguise.
• The Buttigieg Infrastructure Switcheroo.
• Politics Is Risky Business for CEOs.
• China’s Message to America: We’re an Equal Now.
• U.S. Six-Month Budget Deficit Is Deepest Ever.
• Jack Ma’s Ant Group Bows to Beijing With Company Overhaul.
• Republicans Unveil Policies to Match ‘Working-Class Party’ Claim.

Fox News: 

• City manager fired after demanding 'due process' for cop in deadly shooting, mayor takes control of police. 
• LIVE UPDATES: Curfews in effect across Minnesota, crowds swarm NYC streets.
  

CNBC.com: 

• The PC market just had its best Q1 since 2015 and fastest growth in 20 years.
• Market braces for key inflation report Tuesday that may test the Fed’s mettle.
• Biden says he is ‘prepared to negotiate’ scope of infrastructure plan and how to pay for it.
• Jim Cramer says Nvidia shares will ‘end up looking cheap’ next year as stock nears record high.
• Nvidia stock rises as it sees better-than-expected first quarter.

MarketWatch.com:   

• Opinion: Should you buy Coinbase? The valuation is ridiculous, based on this math.

Zero Hedge:

• Watch: Two US Navy Ships Recently Encountered Extraordinary UFOs.
• From American Dream To American Nightmare.
• SEC Drops Accounting Bomb, Blows Up SPAC Boom.
• Hordes Of Demoralized Cops Are Quitting Their Jobs, And America's Streets Are Less Safe As A Result.
• 'Is Biden Really In Charge?' Asks A Skeptical Sen. Cornyn.
• What Are The Next Steps For US Fiscal Policy: A Goldman Q&A.
• No Voter ID Laws Because Millions Don't Have An ID? Let's Buy Them One!
• 'Extremely Dangerous' Radioactive Material Stolen In "Violent" Truck Robbery.
• Janet Yellen Is Serious, And That's Really Sad.
• Tracking The US Labor Market Recovery.
• The "Helicopter Parent" Fed & The Fatal Crash Of Risk.
• Bullard Bloviation Sinks Stocks After S&P Tops Year-End Analyst Estimates.

Newsmax:

• Senator Tells Biden GOP Won’t Back Tax Hike for Infrastructure.
• Sen. Kennedy: Americans Not 'Morons,' Can See Through Infrastructure Plan.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Brooklyn Center Police Release Bodycam Footage of Moments Leading to Fatal Shooting of Daunte Wright (GRAPHIC VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: Voting Machine Systems Should Be Banned from US Elections Until the Highly Suspect “Adjudication Process” Is Defined and Corrected.

The Epoch Times:

• Hong Kong Epoch Times Forced to Suspend Printing After Violent Attack.
• US Lawmakers Condemn ‘Reprehensible’ Attack on Hong Kong Epoch Times’ Printing Press.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.42 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,166.0 +38.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.60 +.17%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (FAST)/.37
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March is estimated to rise to 98.3 from 95.8 in Feb.
  

8:30 am EST 

• The CPI MoM for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Feb.
• The CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Trade Balance report, weekly US retail sales reports and the 30Y T-Bond auction could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Global Shutdown Worries, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.5 +4.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,104.0 -105.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.71 -.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -1.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.2 +1.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.68 +60.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.43 +.89%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 455.40 -.19%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.61 +1.27%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.36 +.64%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.28 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 18.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.46 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 149.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 166.80 USD/Metric Tonne +1.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.40 -1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.10 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
• 94.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 94.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/energy sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.4% 2) Gaming -3.0% 3) Airlines -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RICE, TPTX, BXS, TCS, IKNA, INTZ, GLSI and IRTC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SBH 2) ASHR 3) SABR 4) DKS 5) AMGN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GOEV 2) JNK 3) GME 4) PLUG 5) VLDR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Foods +.8% 2) Insurance +.6% 3) Telecom +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LHDX, EVLO, NUAN, PLBY, MUDS, LMNX, RIOT, GBOX, CVM, IIVI, YETI, FGEN, ZNTL, MCFE, CAL, SI, MARA, LAND, AVTR, RCKT, KTB, NVDA, CADE, CMBM, UBER, CUBI, BCAB, TSLA, DASH, PANW and PVH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HLT 2) NUAN 3) PHM 4) YELP 5) ATNF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SIG 2) ZNTL 3) WEX 4) CVS 5) CMG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -30.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 50.5% of Issues Advancing, 45.9% Declining
• 258 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 89.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,109.0 -97.0 points
• Vix 17.3 +3.9%
• Total Put/Call .70 -5.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.44 +37.1%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• ‘Mother of All Recoveries’ Ignites Bullish Trades Across Europe.   
• China’s Shadow Hangs Over Private Preparations for Johnson’s G-7.  
• Aussie Dollar Bulls Unbowed Despite Disappointing March.
• India Bans Exports of Covid Drug Remdesivir Amid Virus Surge.    
• Pivotal Week Confronts Emerging Markets at Mercy of U.S. Yields.  
• Asia Stocks Set for Steady Open on Growth Outlook: Markets Wrap.
• Most Mideast Stocks Rise With Earnings in Spotlight: Inside EM.   
• Oil Holds Near $59 as Fed’s Powell Points to Economic Growth.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Michigan Urges Vaccine Surge; U.S. Cases Steady: Virus Update.
• Powell Says Economy Poised for Stronger Growth With Virus a Risk.  
• Inflation Is the Only Signal That the Post-Covid Boom Will Heed.
• Ocasio-Cortez, Allies Move to Court Establishment, Not Fight It.  
• Microsoft in Talks to Buy AI Firm Nuance Communications.

Wall Street Journal:

• Companies Plan New Push on Voting Laws.
• CEO Pay Surged as the Pandemic Upended Economy.
• With Economy Poised for Best Growth Since ’83, Inflation Lurks.
• A State Lockdown Accounting.
• Democrats Tie Infrastructure Package to Unionization Push.
• Some People Can’t Wait to Dress for Work Again.
• Solar-Energy Supply Chain Depends on Region Where China is Accused of Genocide.
• Baseball Says Cuba ‘Sí,’ Georgia ‘No’.
• Targeting the U.S. Senate.
• The Other Reason the Labor Force Is Shrunken: Fear of Covid-19.

Fox News:

• Chris Wallace grills Biden Cabinet secretary on false jobs claim in defense of blowout spending package.
• VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: The new ideas that are changing America.

CNBC:  

• Four ways consumer spending will change once more people are vaccinated.
• U.S. states face steep decline in J&J Covid vaccine amid production problems at Baltimore plant. 
• Wall Street’s top analysts back these stocks as the second quarter kicks off.

Zero Hedge: 

• China's Digital Yuan Comes With An Expiration Date.
• The Number Of Billionaires In America Has Absolutely Exploded During The Pandemic.
• "Far Left Antifa Extremists" Set Fire To Portland ICE Building 
• Excess Liquidity In The Eurozone Has Doubled To €4 Trillion In One Year: What Are The Costs.
• Small Business Closures Soar Back Near Pandemic Peak As "Financial Hopelessness" Builds.
• This Could Be The Hottest Summer Ever... For Freight.
• "Horror On St Vincent" - Only Vaccinated Evacuees Able To Flee Amid Fears Of Next Big Volcanic Eruption.
• 1.3 Million Clubhouse Users Data Leaked Online. 
• Putting Biden's Gun Control Claims To The Truth Test.
• Blinken Warns Of "Consequences" If Russia Acts "Aggressively" In Ukraine.
• 'Mystery' Blackout Incident At Iran Nuclear Site "Not An Accident": Israeli Media.
• Global Billionaires' Wealth Increase By $4 Trillion During The Pandemic.
• The Global Debt Problem.
• Over 1 Million Brits Are Reportedly Suffering From "Long COVID".
• Ukraine, Taiwan... Two-Pronged US Aggression Toward Russia, China Escalates.
• A Self-Loathing Ruling Class Cannot Endure.
• Visualizing The Plunging Purchasing Power Of The US Dollar.
• Conservative Filmmakers Start To Fight Back.
  

NewsMax:     

• Gordon Chang: 'World Not Safe' With Kerry Having 'Diplomatic Passport'.
• Sen. Wicker: Biden Infrastructure Plan Mostly Welfare Programs.
• Blinken Criticizes China, Says 'Need to Get to the Bottom' of COVID-19 Origin.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• After the Most Corrupt Election in History, Apple CEO Tim Cooke Thinks It’s a Good Idea to Have People Vote from Their iPhones.
• The Biden Administration is Offering Federal Employees Paid Leave to Assist Illegal Aliens Entering the US.
• Biden’s Transportation Secretary Buttigieg Admits He Lied About the Number of Jobs Biden’s “Infrastructure” Bill Would Create (VIDEO).
• It Begins: Financial Giant Merrill Lynch Assigns “Environmental, Social and Governance” (ESG) Scores to Rate Customers Just Like the Chinese Communist Party (VIDEO).
• House Democrats Schedule Debate and Vote on Reparations for Black Americans.
• Democrats Urge Biden to Make COVID Vaccines Mandatory for Military after 40% of Healthy Marines Refuse the Vaccine.
• Rules Are for the Little People: Gov. Whitmer’s Top Aide Defies Gov’s Travel Warnings to Hit Florida Beaches and Post Pics Online – Then lashes Out at Breitbart After She’s Caught.
• Heartbreaking Photo Shows ‘Hand of God’ Created by Nurse For Covid Patients Suffering in Isolation.
• Marxist Black Lives Matter Founder Didn’t Just Buy a Million Dollar Compound — She Bought FOUR High End Homes, Complete With Airplane Hangars.

The Epoch Times:

•  Nearly 700 Americans’ Data Exposed in Giant Chinese Surveillance Database.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.47 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,211.0 +4.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.92 +.45%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for March is estimated to widen to -$660.0B versus -$310.9B in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, 10Y T-Note auction, 3Y T-Note auction, Needham Healthcare Conference, (SIG) investor event and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.