Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -2.5% 2) Retail -2.3% 3) Gaming -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ALXN, SHLS, CTAS, INMB, ANGO, GKOS, SPCE, AFIB, PTRA, CHPT, GATO, PSAC, GME, TPIC, GPS, ASTR, CLNN, COUP, TMDX, TFX and AMEH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SGH 2) AMLP 3) PGR 4) GPRE 5) CLVS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MRIN 2) TFX 3) PRVB 4) CVI 5) REKR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.9% 2) Road & Rail +.3% 3) Foods +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EVGO, SCPL, ZYXI, NKTX, HNST, MRNA and USB
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WTI 2) XHB 3) AIG 4) IRBT 5) MCHP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CIDM 2) DLA 3) ZYXI 4) AIG 5) ESGR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -14.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 42.8% of Issues Advancing, 51.4% Declining
• 63 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
• 79.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,058.0 -25.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,414 -.72%
  
• Vix 16.7 +2.5%
• Total Put/Call .81 -1.2%
• TRIN/Arms .71 -34.3%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Booming Chip Exports Mask Misery in Taiwan’s Services Sectors.
• Asia Stocks Mixed After Powell as China Data Loom: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Extends Losses on U.S. Stockpile Gain While OPEC+ Nears Deal.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Overdose Deaths Hit U.S. Record; Asia Cases Soar: Virus Update.
• Key Democrats Hold Back on Budget Deal Until Details Offered.
• Powell Sees Tapering a 'Ways Off,' Gets House Inflation Grilling.
• Powell Says Stable Coins Need Regulation to Protect U.S. Public.  
• Moderna’s Next Act Is Using mRNA vs. Flu, Zika, HIV, and Cancer.
• Amazon Sued by U.S. Product-Safety Agency Over Dangerous Items.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Drug-Overdose Deaths Soared Nearly 30% in 2020.
• The Sanders Democrats Go For Broke. 
• EU, China Unveil Plans to Cut Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
• Texas Democrats Suppress the Vote.
• Two-Thirds of Miami Condo Buildings Are Older Than 30 Years. The Repair Bills Are Coming Due.
• Lumber Prices Are Down, but Don’t Expect New Houses to Cost Less.

Fox News:

• Texas Speaker calls on state Dems who hopped on private plane to dodge voting bill to forfeit earnings.
  

CNBC.com:

• How inflation could prompt the largest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in decades.
• The junk bond market is on fire this year as yields hit a record low.
• FDA chief tells reporter ‘move on’ when pressed on Biogen Alzheimer’s drug approval..
• Delta, Apple, Best Buy are some stocks that will benefit from consumer spending rebound, Cramer says.

MarketWatch.com:        

• The Child Tax Credit will boost spending at Walmart, Amazon, Wingstop and other consumer brands. 
  
• 19 dividend stocks with yields of at least 4.26% that will help you combat inflation.
• Game on? Netflix hires first videogame executive, signaling a new approach.

Zero Hedge:

• South African Army 'Activates' All Reserve Members Amid Worsening Social Unrest 
• Are Teachers' Unions Evil?
• Natural Infection May Offer Better Protection Against Delta Variant, Israeli Health Ministry Says.
• No Victory Lap For Governors Who Locked Down America.
• Georgia County Ballot Images Prompt Speculation Of "Provable Fraud".
• Democrats Unveil Bill To Decriminalize (And Tax) Marijuana.
• California Relaxes Over Unmasked Students After Policies Conflict With CDC Guidance.
• US Waives Sanctions On Frozen Iranian Oil Funds.
• Brazil's Bolsonaro Hospitalized After Hiccupping For Over A Week.
• Environmentalists "Feel Burned" By Biden's Infrastructure Bill, Want Another $2.1 Trillion In Climate Spending.
• Watch: Radical Fed Morphs From Central Bank To Bailout Kingpin... And Americans Aren't Paying Attention.
• Biden Rails Against Texas For "Making It Easy To Vote & Hard To Cheat" According To Gov Abbott.
• US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant.
• Bonds, Bitcoin, Bullion, & Big-Tech Bid As 'Powell Promises' Purge PPI Panic.

Newsmax:

• Time on Their Side, Texas Republicans Wait for Dems' Return, Hone '22 Message.
• Rep. Mike Garcia: Biden WH 'Hell Bent' on Helping 'Bad Guys' in Cuba.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• United Nations Formally Invited by Biden Admin to Investigate “the Scourge of Racism, Racial Discrimination, and Xenophobia” in the US.
• DOJ Watchdog Says FBI Allowed USA Gymnastics Team Doctor Larry Nassar to Get Away with Child Sex Crimes.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.75 -1.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 -1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.12 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,043.0 -39.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.85 +1.26%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BK)/1.00
• (CTAS)/2.31
• (HTLD)/.26
• (MS)/1.64
• (PGR)/1.05
• (TSM)/5.24
• (TFC)/1.17
• (USB)/1.13
• (UNH)/4.45
  

After the Close:

• (AA)/1.28
• (AOUT)/.23
• (MRTN)/.26
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for July is estimated to rise to 18.0 versus 17.4 in June.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for July is estimated to fall to 28.0 versus 30.7 in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 350K versus 373K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3300K versus 3339K prior.
• The Import Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.1% gain in May. 
• The Import Price Index Ex Petroleum MoM for June is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.9% gain in May.
• The Export Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +2.2% gain in May.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for June is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in May.
• Capacity Utilization for June is estimated to rise to 75.6% versus 75.2% in May.
• Manufacturing Production for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in May. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (COUP) analyst day and the (LOW) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, REIT/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.5 -3.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,069.0 -23.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.34 -.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.7 +13.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0  +42.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +4.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.33 -.22%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 385.66 +2.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.05 +.25%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.48 -1.59%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.80 -1.42%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.06 +.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 unch.

• TED Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.75 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.12 +.45%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 115.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 209.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.44%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.7 +1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 77.30 -4.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.1 -4.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +7 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -104 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.8% 2) Oil Service -2.3% 3) Energy -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BAC, AFIB, AFRM, PODD, PTRA, POSH, LII, GATO, INSP, AXSM, ATEC, KPLT, SPCE, UPWK, OLO, INMB, CLNN and GKOS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MGM 2) LPX 3) DD 4) INO 5) BLK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GKOS 2) LMAT 3) INSP 4) AMC 5) PTON
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume