Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,329.75 -.8%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 34,739.40 -.49%

• NASDAQ 14,460.72 -1.8%

• Russell 2000 2,167.70 -4.7%

• S&P 500 High Beta 70.21 -5.8%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 315.0 -8.9%

• Wilshire 5000 44,871.0 -1.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,769.73 -.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,552.53 -1.3%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 734.4 +1.3%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,434.69 -.06%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,048.92 -2.6%

• Transports 14,501 -2.3%

• Utilities 917.0 +2.6%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 69.58 -2.0%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 53.41 -.58%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,441.47 -.34%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 937.31 -.31%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 477,370 -.1%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -175 +3

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -40.1 +5.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 497,351 -4.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,413,946 +1.9%

• Total Put/Call .94 +4.6%

• OEX Put/Call 2.86 -5.0%

• ISE Sentiment 84.0 -36.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.97 +286.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,926.0 -220.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.51 -1.5% 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.5 +5.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.97 +8.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.02 -.17%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.5 -3.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,781.30 +.48%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.480 Trillion -.69%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -10.398 Million

• AAII % Bulls 36.2 -10.0%

• AAII % Bears 26.8 +9.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 212.58 +.64%

• Crude Oil 71.66 -3.34%

• Reformulated Gasoline 224.82 -.94%

• Natural Gas 3.68 -.6%

• Heating Oil 211.05 -1.2%

• Gold 1,813.63 +.11%
• Silver 25.69 -1.9%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 463.88 +.12%

• Copper 431.35 -.51%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 493.0 USD/Metric Tonne -4.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 213.50 USD/Metric Tonne +2.6%

• Lumber 551.70 -27.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,260.50 +5.0%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 540.0 USD/Short Ton +9.1%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +7.5% -1.8 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +14.1% -4.0 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +8.59 -16.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 180.22 +53.9%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 203.3 +.38%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.9 +20.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 74.0 -13.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.7 -7.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 7/28

• US Dollar Index 92.64 +.62%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,730.25 +.43%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 32,008.0 -5.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.26 -.59%

• Yield Curve 108.0 -7.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.30% -6.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.163 Trillion +1.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9.33 -.16%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 119.37 -3.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 unch.
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.9 -2.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 174.31 -.23%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.39 -.28%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.28 +.82%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.44 +1.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.01 +.36%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34% +5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 9.25 +.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.72 +2.94%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 296.0 +9.4%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.83 +.83%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 161.67 +.45%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 71.25 +.75 basis point
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 73.75 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.8 -4.2 percentage points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,129.60 -.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 382,500 -14,500 jobs
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.4% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.88% -2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 727,500 +16.0%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 52.2 -1.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +11.1% -6.1 percentage points

• Nationwide Gas $3.16/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 3,073 -6.9%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,771.54 +2.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 158.71 -8.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 241,528 -12.5%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -4.7%
  

Leading Sectors

• Utilities +2.2%

• REITs +1.2%
  

• Restaurants +.1%

• Telecom unch.

• Insurance -.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Shipping -5.0%
  

• Gaming -5.9%

• Energy -6.7%

• Alt Energy -7.0%

• Oil Service -10.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• MRNA, ZYXI, VERV, MGI, CPLG, SPB and UNIT
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• PVH, SPCE, LPI, GATO, AA, INSW, EWTX, CPE, MAPS, TMDX and FGEN
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Socks Lower into Afternoon on Global Virus Shutdown Worries, Earnings Concerns, Technical Selling, Commodity/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 +1.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,943.0 -64.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.28 +.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.46 -.94%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.0 +1.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0  -12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +5.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.68 +76.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.63 +.97%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 407.90 +1.0%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.87 +.33%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.44 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.36 -.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 38.99 -.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 9.25 +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.14 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 109.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 214.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.9 -6.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 74.0 -1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.7 +1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -113 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -19.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 41.0% of Issues Advancing, 54.6% Declining
• 68 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 78.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,922.0 -85.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,500 +.31%
  
• Vix 17.4 +2.3%
• Total Put/Call .88 -1.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.99 +96.8%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Biden Says U.S. to Warn Business on Deteriorating Hong Kong.  
• China’s Pork Imports Set to Plunge 50% as Local Prices Tumble.
• Stocks Mixed, Treasuries Hold Gain on Growth Worry: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Dips to One-Month Low on Strong Dollar and OPEC+ Uncertainty.
  
• L.A. Orders Masks Indoors; Abu Dhabi Curbs Moves: Virus Update.
  
• Wall Street Has Surrendered to the $500 Billion ETF Rush.  
• Yellen Demurs on Second Powell Term, Saying She’ll Talk to Biden.  
• Biden Says His Covid Team is Weighing Lifting Europe Travel Ban.  
• Alcoa Posts Better-Than-Expected Profit, Sees Demand Rising.
• JPMorgan Strategist Warns of Dot-Com Era ‘Bull Trap’ in Ark Fund.

Wall Street Journal:

• China Buys Friends With Ports and Roads. Now the U.S. Is Trying to Compete.
• The Reassuring Data on the Delta Variant.
• The Climate-Change Agenda Goes Out With a Bang.
• Infrastructure Talks Stall Over Expanded IRS Powers.
• Your Child Tax Credit Payment Just Arrived. Are You Sure You Want It?
• Wall Street Opens Back Up to Oil and Gas—but Not for Drilling.

Fox News:  

• Texas House Speaker 'demanding' Dems who fled to DC to 'secure their seat' on plane he is chartering.
• Outrage over Biden admin's collusion with Facebook to nix 'problematic' posts.
  

CNBC.com:

• Yellen sees ‘several more months of rapid inflation’ before easing, worries about housing impact.
• American Airlines calls off flight attendants’ leaves, plans to hire 800 to meet travel demand.
• Jim Cramer says flood of IPOs is weighing on stock prices.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Square, Alcoa, American Outdoor Brands & more. 
  

MarketWatch.com:     

• Bond King Jeff Gundlach says there is a simple reason Treasury yields are so low even as inflation surges.  
• Moderna set to join S&P 500, stock rallies 8% after hours.

Zero Hedge:

• Arizona Election Audit: Maricopa County Stonewalling - Will Not Turn Over Routers, Chain Of Custody, Ballot Images As Discrepancies Found.
• Nuclear-Powered Crypto-Mining To Begin In Pennsylvania Next Year.
• "China Senses Weakness": Pence Urges Biden To Take Tougher Stance On CCP.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Sets Sights Expansion Into Japan After Record Q2 Sales.
• Intel To Buy Chip Fabricator GlobalFoundaries For $30 Billion In Biggest Deal Yet: WSJ.
• Chinese Communist Party Officials Share Viral Video Urging Nuclear Strikes On Japan.
• WHO To Correct 'Errors' In Report On Early COVID Cases In Wuhan, Won't Release Underlying Data.
• Paging Greta: China To Release 10 Million Tonnes Of Highly Polluting Coal From Reserves.
• Calling An End To The Commodity Rally? Not So Fast.
• LA County Reinstates Mask Mandate As COVID Cases Rise, Young Black Residents Dominate Unvaxx'd.
• Several Colombians Arrested In Haiti Assassination Received US Military Training: Pentagon.
• Expect A "Marked Slowdown" In Retail Sales.
• "Sick Of Westie Whites" Blatant Anti-White, Anti-Asian Racism In Schools.
• Surgeon General Demands Social Networks Crack Down On COVID Misinformation.
• Fed Fumble Slams Stocks, Bond Yields, & Big Shorts.

Newsmax:

• Trump Gives an I-Told-You-So on Fox News' Early Arizona Call.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Breaking: Arizona State Senator Demands Biden Electors be Recalled to Arizona and New Election Held Following Thursday’s Stunning Audit Revelations.
• “Germany Does Not Use Voting Machines, Like in the US” – German Minister Defends Country’s Secure Elections Comparing them to Sh*tshow in US.
• California Democrat-Led Legislature Approves First Ever State-Funded Guaranteed Income Plan.
• Black Lives Matter Marxists Blame US for ‘Undermining Cubans’ Right to Choose their Own Government;” Praise Communist Leaders as they Beat and Murder Their People.
• UPDATE: Arizona Audit Team Escorted from Building after Explosive Hearing Confirming Thousands of Fraudulent Votes — Applause Breaks Out! (VIDEO).
• WOW! AZ Audit Finds 74,000 Ballots Returned and Counted in 2020 Election with NO RECORD of Being Sent Out!

KFF:

• How fast virus is growing by state.
• Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  

Our World in Data:

• New Confirmed Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs).

Carnegie Mellon:

• Covid-Like Symptoms in Community.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.5 -2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.0 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,840.0 -166.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.02 +1.0%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.07%.

• S&P 500 futures -.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALV)/1.38
• (SCHW)/.72
• (ERIC)/1.23
• (KSU)/2.16
• (STT/)1.79
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for June is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -1.3% decline in May.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.7% decline in May.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for June is estimated to rise +.6% versus a -.8% decline in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.2% decline in April.
• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for July is estimated to rise to 86.5 versus 85.5 in June. 
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May.

Upcoming Splits

• (NVDA) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Valuation Concerns, Global Virus Variant Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing Inline
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 +8.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,970.0 -112.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.83 -.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.63 -.69%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.8 +4.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0  -20.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 +4.88%

• NYSE Arms 1.12 +3.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.15 +1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 402.07 +2.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.69 +1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.20 -2.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.44 +1.08%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.02 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 unch.

• TED Spread 8.0 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.5 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.97 -.32%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 111.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 212.20 USD/Metric Tonne -.59%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.8 +4.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.70 -1.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.5 +3.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -249 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long