Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -5.8% 2) Energy -3.2% 3) Defense -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MTCH, KHC, AKAM, EVRI, LPSN, AMGN, VIRT, SPR, UNM, NCR, BGFV, SKLZ, GM, SPWR, LYFT, LUMN, CAR, PRIM, CNR, KTOS, PSN, AYX, MRCY, SGRY, RYTM, ARCT, AVID and CDLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CL 2) GPRE 3) BHC 4) CNK 5) UAA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZY 2) LIVE 3) CDLX 4) RYTM 5) AYX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +2.0% 2) Semis +1.7% 3) Video Gaming +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ATOM, EXPI, HOOD, COUR, NVAX, GBT, BTBT, SKYT, UTHR, SPT, NEWR, INSP, DCPH, PAYC, KAR, NVTA, FLGT, JLL, LUNG, SOFI, DVA, NYT, MRNA, VIR, TUP, BXC, MGP, CWH, ZI, DENN, AMD, UA, NDLS, FTCV, RNA, UAA, RNA, WK, ATEC, NKLA, LL, SKY, CLH, MORF, CGBD and ALXO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) USFD 2) VIRT 3) ADI 4) EXPI 5) XLNX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) COUR 2) INSP 3) SPT 4) EXPI 5) PAYC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.9% Avove 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 30.1% of Issues Advancing, 65.4% Declining
• 111 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 75.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,535.0 -72.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,671 +.78%
  
• Vix 18.5 +2.4%
• Total Put/Call .70 -7.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.22 +56.4%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• China’s Latest Outbreak Threatens to Derail Consumer Recovery.
• China Stocks Are Better Shelter Than Hong Kong in Xi’s Clampdown.
• Tencent Weighs Kids Games Ban After ‘Spiritual Opium’ Rebuke.  
  
• Iran Probably Was Behind Tanker Attack, U.K. Tells UN Council.
  
• Yen Libor Death Knell Sounds as Traders Close In on Replacement.
• Asia Stocks Open Steady as Virus, China Weigh: Markets Wrap.
• China Virus Hit, Tough Fed Choice, N.Z. Rate-Hike Talk: Eco Day.
• Delta Spikes Herd Immunity Threshold to Over 80%: Virus Update.
• Cuomo Faces Day of Reckoning Over Sexual Abuse Claims.  
• Report Drills NCAA on Equity, Calls for Combined Final Four.  
• Spirit, American Cancel Hundreds of Flights for a Second Day.  
• Americans Are Willing to Take Pay Cuts to Never Go Into the Office Again.  
• Judge Temporarily Halts Texas Restrictions on Migrant Transports. 
• Covid Shots Targeting Delta May Be Needed, Researchers Say.  
• Bitcoin Traders Eye ‘Scary’ Retreat After Return to Recent Range.

Wall Street Journal:

• Pentagon Police Officer Is Fatally Stabbed.
• Cuomo Sexually Harassed Multiple Women, Inquiry Finds.
• Read the Full Report.
• The Eviction Ban Has to End Sometime.
• If Biden Is Serious About Covid, He’ll Protect the Border.
• The Andrew Cuomo Standard.
• Law School Loses Luster as Debts Mount and Salaries Stagnate.
• Crypto ‘Wild West’ Needs Stronger Investor Protection, SEC Chief Says.
• Two More Cops Who Responded to Capitol Attack Died by Suicide.

Fox News:

• Cuomo slammed for bizarre slideshow of him touching, kissing people.
  

CNBC.com:

• Biden approval ratings on Covid and economy fall in new CNBC All-America survey.
• Lyft revenue grows 125% from last year.
• CDC bans evictions for another two months.
• Incident with multiple tankers in Gulf of Oman raises concerns in oil market.
• NY Lt. Gov. Hochul says she believes Cuomo accusers, calls his behavior ‘repulsive & unlawful’.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Lyft, Match, Robinhood and more.
  

MarketWatch.com:       

• Junk-bond spreads see sharpest monthly selloff since September 2020.
  
• Credit-card debt increased by $17 billion in 2Q as stimulus payments level off.
  
• This crypto scam bilked investors out of $11 million — and paid action star Steven Seagal to promote it.

NY Post: 

• US companies riddled with members of Chinese Communist Party: Devine. Boeing(BA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Pfizer(PFE) are just three US companies that have employed dozens of CCP members in their Chinese facilities, the database reveals. 

Zero Hedge:

• 'Biden Took An Oath To Uphold The Constitution, Not Violate It': Turley Opines On CDC's Revised Eviction Moratorium.
• "Don't Go Anywhere Near Your Grandkids": Australian Health Official Warns Grandparents. 
• Banks Are Literally Begging Americans To Take Out Loans And Max Out Credit Cards.
• Vanguard Offers $1,000 To Vaccine Holdouts To Get Jabbed.
• Infrastructure Bill Mandates Drunk-Driver Detectors For New Cars.
• Virtue Signaling: What Is It And Why Is It So Dangerous?
• US Navy Sends Ship To Shadow Hijacked Tanker As It Heads Toward Iranian Waters.
• Buchanan Blasts America's 'Great Leap Forward' Into Socialism.
• Fired For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine? You May Not Receive Unemployment Benefits.
• Biden, Pelosi, Schumer Call On Cuomo To Resign As New Criminal Investigation Announced.
• Delta Is The Latest Risk Facing Chinese Stocks, Goldman Warns.
• Going To Public Places Should Be A "Privilege" Reserved For The Vaccinated, Elitist Profs Declare.
• $12 Billion Hedge Fund Suffers $1.5 Billion Loss On Massive Treasury Short Squeeze.
• WTI Dips After Disappointingly Small Crude Inventory Draw.
• Stocks Dump'n'Pump To Record Highs As Real Yields Hit New Record Lows.

Newsmax:

• Rep. McCaul: COVID 'Worst Cover-Up in Human History'.
• Rep. Burchett: US Must Cut Off China Financially.
• Sen. Blackburn: Kids Will Pay Price for Infrastructure Bill.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Breaking: Record 210,000 Illegal Aliens Apprehended at US Southern Border in July – During COVID Pandemic – A 21-Year High.
• California District to Hold Secret Meeting to Discuss Implementing Mandatory Vaccination Requirements But We Got the Zoom Link — Here it Is, Please Join In at 4 PM PST…
• Joe Biden Singles Out Texas and Florida for COVID Surge after Flooding Texas Border with Historic Number of Untested Illegals (VIDEO).
• NIH Director Francis Collins: “It May Sound Weird” But Parents Should Wear Masks at Home in Front of Their Unvaccinated Kids (VIDEO).
• ** CodeMonkeyZ BOMBSHELL ** Dominion Whistleblower Speaks Out – Releases Admin Password Proving Remote Access –VIDEO.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity.
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.75 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.13 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,636.0 +29.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.1 +.9%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.1%.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABC)/2.04
• (BWA)/.80
• (CVS)/2.07
• (EMR)/.97
• (FDP)/.83
• (GM)/1.85
• (HMC)/59.54
• (JLL)/1.73
• (KHC)/.72
• (LL)/.22
• (RCL)/-4.38
• (SMG)/3.52
• (TUP)/.57
• (VMC)/1.65

After the Close:

• (ALB)/.83
• (BKNG)/-2.26
• (ALL)/3.16
• (DOX)/1.18
• (ELF)/.14
• (EA)/.64
• (EOG)/1.55
• (ETSY)/.74
• (FOXA)/.58
• (IAC)/-.34
• (JACK)/1.48
• (KLIC)/1.36
• (LESL)/.56
• (MRO)/.18
• (MCK)/4.14
• (MELI)/.19
• (MET)/1.66
• (MGM)/-.37
• (RMAX)/.57
• (RCII)/1.36
• (RVLV)/.21
• (RGR)/1.73
• (UBER)/-.32
• (WDC)/1.50
• (WYNN)/-1.58
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for July is estimated to fall to 683K versus 692K in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for July is estimated to rise to 60.5 versus 60.1 in June.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,941,640 barrels versus a -4,089,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,356,200 barrels versus a -2,253,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -754,500 barrels versus a -3,088,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.44% versus a -.3% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Clarida speaking, Eurozone Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (COST) sales results could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, Diminished Virus Shutdown Fears, Stable Long-Term Rates, Road & Rail/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -6.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,600.0 +53.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.66 -.28%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.64 +.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.3 -4.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0  +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -13.6%

• NYSE Arms .90 -31.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 +.18%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 437.38 +1.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.11 +.56%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.8 -.26%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.57 -.41%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.14 +.43%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 7.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.75 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.11 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 101.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 175.90 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.7 +2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -1.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.0 -2.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 182 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +12/100K people
• 34% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -164 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 49.6% of Issues Advancing, 45.7% Declining
• 99 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 75.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,549.0 +4.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,555 -.1%
  
• Vix 18.7 -4.2%
• Total Put/Call .73 -17.1%
• TRIN/Arms .80 -39.4%