Friday, August 06, 2021

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Banks +2.7% 2) Oil Service +2.4% 3) Steel +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RAMP, BYSI, SWCH, BTBT, SYNA, CNTY, GDYN, MVIS, CSOD, PRTS, JYNT, XENT, CFLT, PCTY, POST, GT, TGI, AXNX, UNIT, MGNI, PFSI, MARA, CTVA, AGFY, GDEN, MAXR, LTHM, ITRI, CARG, MNST, YELP, ONTO, BLL, ADTN, BHF, ACI, OCFC, DVAX, SEAS, EHTH, ASTR, MSTR, ORMP, MRSN, GPN, OPCH, FIS, FSLY and HLMN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PRTY 2) GRPN 3) DVAX 4) AEP 5) XLB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ANY 2) SWCH 3) RAMP 4) GCI 5) SYNA

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -12.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
  • 54.8% of Issues Advancing, 40.5% Declining
  • 131 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
  • 73.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 47.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,821.0 +155.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,562 -.96%
  • Vix 16.9 -2.4%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -9.7%
  • TRIN/Arms .82 +2.5%

Thursday, August 05, 2021

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
NY Post: 
CNBC.com: 
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.75 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.84 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,621.0 -45.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.4 +.43%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures unch. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (D)/.77
  • (DKNG)/-.58
  • (FLR)/.08
  • (GT)/.17
  • (LEA)/2.47
  • (MGA)/1.41
  • (NCLH)/-2.00
  • (NUAN)/.18
  • (SRCL)/.67
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to rise to 870K versus 850K in June.
  • The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 5.7% versus 5.9% in June.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for June.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for June is estimated to fall to $23.0B versus $35.28B in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Trade Data report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Virus Lockdown Fears, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Gaming/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -3.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,668.0 +100.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.18 +.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 -.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0  -21.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .80 -3.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.7 +114.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.39 -1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 440.22 -.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.94 -.31%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.13 +.01%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.25 +.83%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.0 -.55%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 7.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.25 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.93 -.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  • Yield Curve 101.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 165.50 USD/Metric Tonne -5.74%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.4 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.8 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.0 +2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 202 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +10/100K people
  • 38% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -155 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers -2.7% 2) Steel -1.6% 3) Gold & Silver -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AMD, GPRE, FMC, UPWK, FSLY, OCDX, XRAY, FTCV, LESL, ETSY, THS, ATEC, FTDR, MAXR, TVTY, LMND, CI, GDDY, CAH, SWIM, CCMP, RVLV, MOD, COMM, CENX, BYSI, PETQ, AMED, NVRO and ITRI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BYSI 2) XOP 3) ETSY 4) GPRE 5) CLR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NVRO 2) HOOD 3) AMED 4) INGN 5) FVRR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +5.3% 2) Airlines +3.7% 3) Oil Service +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ZY, ASTR, CCRN, ARCT, MVIS, SRPT, AHCO, HMHC, EDIT, DDOG, GOGO, BXC, SSSS, NTLA, ORMP, SEAS, HUBS, DFIN, W, PING, NVAX, BTBT, PENN, SQ, WYNN, ZI, HBI, VREX, ATCX, ELF, ALB, BOOT, OPCH, AES, BCRX, ATQT, CUTR, VG, NEWT, DVAX, CDLX, UBER, VIR, XLNX, BPMP, NLS, REGN and GM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLNX 3) KKR 4) HBI 5) PENN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SITM 2) MELI 3) HUBS 4) PING 5) BKNG