Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.3% 2) Steel -3.2% 3) Social Media -2.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FOUR, OCDX, DOCN, OPCH, OLO, SLQT, SOAC, APR, IMPL, PATH, AGFY, SMAR, REVG, ALEC and INMB
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IGT 2) ALB 3) PII 4) EEM 5) BBIG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PATH 2) VRT 3) PHM 4) SHW 5) PYPL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +2.0% 2) Restaurants +1.1% 3) Foods +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SPB, BBIG, DRNA, CXM, RKLB, RNA, GPN, VLTA, ICPT, TMX, GIS, KHC, HRMY, TRUP, CTXS, RRC, ORGO, AMEH, FIX, MVST, SPRT, HLMN, DVAX, BCEI, JOAN, PFN and ALIT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KDMN 2) FSLR 3) LQD 4) COUP 5) PVH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ICUI 2) GSAT 3) BBIG 4) KDMN 5) SBOW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 32.3% of Issues Advancing, 63.8% Declining
• 58 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 67.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,058.0 -35.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,961 -.44%
  
• Vix 19.0 +4.7%
• Total Put/Call .86 +3.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.5 +105.4%

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Oil Decline, US Dollar Strength, Commodity/Industrial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +5.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,163.0 +60.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.84 +.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.55 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.6 +4.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -2.3%

• NYSE Arms .59 -53.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.13 +.96%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.0 +.19%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.95 +1.23%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.33 -.40%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 152.0 +1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.30 -.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 unch.

• TED Spread 8.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.42 -.32%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 114.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.4 -5.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.9 +5.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.5 -1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +2.0 basis points
• 98.3% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.3% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 289 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -66/100K people
• 54% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -13.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +14 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 33.3% of Issues Advancing, 63.3% Declining
• 93 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 69.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,127.0 +25.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,035 +.74%
  
• Vix 17.8 +8.6%
• Total Put/Call .86 -1.2%
• TRIN/Arms .56 -55.9%

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• China to Expand Shenzhen’s Qianhai Zone, Eyeing H.K.    
• Tech Crackdown Is a Cloud Over China Economy, Ex-WTO Chief Says.  
• Japan Household Spending Falls for a Third Month.  
• U.K. Retail Sales Lose Steam as Firms, Shoppers Fret Over Prices.
• Merkel Confidant Dies Days After Becoming China Ambassador.
• Singapore Won’t Exclude Tighter Curbs as It Confronts Covid Jump.  
• Iran Condemns Taliban for Assault on Afghan Resistance Enclave.  
• Run-it-Hot Eurozone Economy Robs Junk Bond Market of Real Yield .  
• Porsche CEO Says Electric Supercars Will Win Out: Munich Update.  
• Brazil Economists See Higher Key Rate and Slower Growth in 2022.
• European Stocks Have Record In Sight on Hopes Stimulus Will Stay.  
• Stocks Set to Extend Rally in Asia; Dollar Firmer: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steady With Saudi Price Cuts Raising Competition Stakes.
  
• Europeans Hit the Road to Fire Rebound in Continent’s Oil Demand.  
• Ida’s Initial Hit to U.S. Oil Output Has Surpassed Katrina’s. 
• Goldman Cuts U.S. Growth Forecast as Consumer Sees ‘Harder Path’.

Wall Street Journal:

• Taliban Claim to Have Conquered Last Pocket of Resistance in Afghanistan.
• Business Travel Rebound Stifled by Covid Resurgence.
• Aluminum Hits Decade High After Guinea Coup.
• U.S. Left Afghanistan Littered With Decaying Factories, Schools.
• Big Boeing Customer Says It Is Walking Away From New MAX Order.
• Democrats Bet That Legislative Success Will Bring Political Rewards.
• Instacart Goes Deeper Into Digital Advertising as Grocery Delivery Slows.
• Does Joe Biden Have Any Core Principles?  
• Kavanaugh to the Liberal Rescue.  
• Our Friends the Taliban.  
• Reclaiming Our Independence From Big Tech.

Fox News:  

• EXCLUSIVE: State Dept accused of stealing credit for rescue of 4 Americans from Afghanistan.
• Alarming crime analysis reveals which major US cities saw the worst upticks in shootings, murders.
• President's approval tanks, only 2 others have had lower ratings at this point. 
• CNN blasted for article claiming 'Whiteness' will expand to be 'tan'.

CNBC:

• Tech giants are rushing to develop their own chips – here’s why. 
• Shortage of supplies and workers will delay Gulf rebuilding after Ida.

Zero Hedge: 

• Investigating The Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree In Climate Change Since 1850.
• Aussie Health Chief: COVID Will Be With Us "Forever", People Will Have To "Get Used To" Endless Booster Vaccines.
• Evergrande Bonds Halted Amid Liquidation Panic As Contagion Spreads To Other Chinese Junk.
• 'AntiVaxMomma' Sold Fake Vaccination Cards That Got Verified In NY State Database.
• The Great Computer Chip Shortage Of 2021 Is Just Heating Up.
• United Nations Vows To Keep Afghan Aid Flowing After Meeting With Taliban.
• Millennials & Zoomers Inherit A Boomer Mess, What Will They Do With Their Turn?
• Traffic Deaths Surged To 38,680 In 2020 Despite Americans Driving 13% Less Miles.
• Futures Rise, Europe And China Bounce With US Closed For Holiday.
• State Department, Then Taliban, Reportedly Blocking Private Rescue Planes From Departing Afghanistan.
• Oregon Police And Firefighters Suing Governor In Resistance Of Vaccine Mandate.
• Divers Identify One-Foot Broken Pipeline As Source Of Oil Spill In Gulf Of Mexico.
• UK Minister Says Minors Can Get COVID Vaccine Jab Without Parental Consent.
• "I Will Not Submit": 140,000 French Citizens Protest Against Vaccine Passport.
• Belarus Floods EU With Migrants From Middle East.
• Soros' Dream: To Turn China Into A Neoliberal Grabitization Opportunity.
• Robocop Is Here: Singapore Deploys Robots To Detect "Undesirable Behavior" Including Groups Of "More Than Five People".
• Milley Admits US Withdrawal From Afghanistan Will Lead To Civil War, Terrorism.

Reuters:

• U.S.-bound migrants fill Colombia town as COVID-19 border closures lifted. (Aug. 11)
  
• Colombia has administered at least 35,750,492 doses of COVID vaccines so far. (graph) Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 35.5% of the country’s population.
• COVID-19 infections are decreasing in Colombia, with 1,959 new infections reported on average each day. That’s 6% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on June 27.

 Jerusalem Post:

• COVID-19: New 'Mu variant' from Colombia could be vaccine resistant - WHO.

Nature: 

• Why US coronavirus tracking can’t keep up with concerning variants. (April 7) Laboratories supported by the US government have doubled the rate at which they are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes over the past two months. Still, the number of genomes that the country shared in the online genome repository GISAID in March represented only 1.6% of its positive COVID-19 cases that month.

Newsweek:

• Mu COVID Variant, Which Could Be Resistant to Vaccines, Now in Almost Every State.
  

NewsMax:

• Border Patrol Tries to Fill Holes in Border Wall That Biden Left.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Image Surfaces of Stranded Planes Filled with Americans at Mazar-i-Sharif Airport in Afghanistan – Taliban Holds Planes Hostage as Biden State Department Blocks Departures.
• Hundreds Turn Out at Camp Pendleton for Candlelight Memorial for Lost Marines – And More Rumblings of a Countdown Before Bombing.
• Biden Effect: Taliban Now Controls More Territory in Afghanistan Today than They Did on 9-11 20 Years Ago.
• Fauci Keeping an Eye on “Mu Variant” to “Make Sure it Doesn’t Become More Dominant” (VIDEO). 
• “Makes Me Want to Puke!”: GOP Congressman Accuses Biden Admin of Lying About Helping Four Americans Escape Afghanistan Who Were Rescued by Veteran Cory Mills.
• US Congressman: At Least 500 Americans Stranded in Afghanistan.
• Democrat Senator Blumenthal Blasts Biden Admin Over Abandoning Americans in Afghanistan: “Furious at Our Government’s Delays and Inaction”.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China Sends Bombers, Fighter Jets Into Taiwan’s Air Defense Zone.
• Germany’s China Envoy Dies Less Than 2 Weeks After Appointment.
• Tang Jingyuan: How Biden and Xi View ‘Competition’ Is Different; China’s Bid to Take Over the US.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 unch..
• China Sovereign CDS 32.5 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.62 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,079.0 -24.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.32 -1.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%.
• S&P 500 futures +.13%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (CASY)/2.99
• (COUP)/-.06

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP report, German ZEW Sentiment Index, $58B 3Y T-Note auction, UBS Chemicals Conference and the Goldman Sachs Biotech Symposium could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.