Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 39.1% of Issues Advancing, 56.2% Declining
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 63.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,993.0 -14.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,978 +.09%
  
• Vix 19.0 +4.3%
• Total Put/Call .80 -4.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 +27.7%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 33.25 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.26 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,010.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.8 -.18%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 323K versus 310K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2740K versus 2783K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 19.0 versus 19.4 in Aug.  
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -1.1% decline in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.4% decline in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for Aug. is estimated unch. versus a -1.0% decline in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in June.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Trade Balance report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the Life Sciences Investor Forum could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Tax Hike Fears, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.6 -47%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,005.0 +87.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.40 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.44 -.6%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 -.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0  -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -5.5%

• NYSE Arms .84 -42.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.29 -1.25%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 381.28 -1.53%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.10 +.43%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 +1.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.99 +2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 152.93 -.86%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.1 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 8.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.11 +.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 108.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.7 +6.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.9 +2.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -7.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 332 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -46/100K people
• 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -9.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -111 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +71 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/industrial/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -1.5% 2) Restaurants -1.1% 3) Video Gaming -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LYV, MGM, RPRX, SFIX, PATH, WMS, EA, WYNN and DNMR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EA 2) XOP 3) PBF 4) IEF 5) WYNN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TBPH 2) BLI 3) MLCO 4) CAN 5) CDXC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +3.4% 2) Oil Service +2.9% 3) Banks +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GSKY, IRNT, TIL, ADGI, BRP, PAR, SD, RRC, AMTX, OPAD, ISEE, WSC, AMR, PASG, COG, WEBR, MTDR, GT, CLR, TASK, HOMB, SOFI, SANA, DVN, LCID, JOAN, OXY, PVAC, NFG, ASO, MTTR, SKIL, CMCSA, TROX, LESL, CRC AND BSY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMPE 2) GSKY 3) FE 4) WSC 5) FIVN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WEBR 2) PAR 3) GTEH 4) MARA 5) STLD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 61.1% of Issues Advancing, 34.9% Declining
• 45 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 60.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,937.0 +18.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,878 -.63%
  
• Vix 19.2 -1.2%
• Total Put/Call .85 -6.6%
• TRIN/Arms .96 -34.7%