Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +1.1% 2) Internet +.8% 3) Software +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AFRM, BTBT, AYI, NFE, NET, DOCS, HIBB, BNED, MRVL, MARRA, PAR, ROKU, ASAN, ENPH, RGNX, COIN, PVAC, VITL, CLSK, CERT, TUP, INSM, UPST, DDS and CERT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LEVI 2) EGHT 3) XRT 4) EMB 5) NXTD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AFRM 2) AYI 3) BTBT 4) ASAN 5) JAZZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 23.5% of Issues Advancing, 73.3% Declining
• 14 New 52-Week Highs, 75 New Lows
• 56.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,840.0 -111.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,400 +.76%
  
• Vix 22.8 +7.1%
• Total Put/Call .97 +15.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.25 +56.3%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                    

• Smart Money From Soros to Elliott Sounds Alarm on Chinese Stocks.
• China PCR Testing Purchases Spiked in Months Before First Known Covid Cases, Firm Says.  
• Global Energy Crisis Shows Fragility of Clean-Power Era.  
• Deepening Energy Crisis Raises Inflation Alarm as RBI Meets.
  
• France and Spain Call for EU to Act on Surging Gas Prices.
  
• Asia Stocks to Track U.S. Rebound; Treasuries Drop: Markets Wrap.
• The Stock Market Hasn't Been This Frenetic Since Early in the Pandemic.
• Vaccine Mandates Hit Amid Historic Health-Care Staff Shortage.
  
• Warren Says Facebook Funds ‘Dark Money,’ Undermines Democracy.
• Facebook Outage Is Felt Acutely by Small-Business Owners.  
• The Options to Avert U.S. Default After Third Schumer Try Fails.  
• Gen X's Wealth Has Gone Up 50% During the Pandemic.
• SEC Chief Says the U.S. Won't Ban Cryptocurrencies.
• UnitedHealth, Mondelez to Require Vaccinations: Virus Update.  
• Amazon CEO Says Video Games Could Become the Largest Entertainment Business.  
• Powell Backed by Majority of GOP Senators on Banking Panel.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Democrats Wrangle Over How to Shrink $3.5 Trillion Proposal.
• The Debt Ceiling Deception.  
• Crime Is Up and Democrats Are Scrambling.  
• Science Closes In on Covid’s Origins.  
• Doesn’t Anyone in the U.S. Government Like the U.S.?  
• Facebook Needs to Empower Parents, Not Censor Political Speech.
• Netflix’s ‘Squid Game’ Has Already Inspired Thousands of Halloween Costumes.

Fox News: 

• Manchin signals change of heart on Biden’s socialist spending bill.
  

CNBC.com:  

• Senators demand Zuckerberg answer questions after whistleblower’s revelations. 

MarketWatch.com:        

• For your shopping list: These big tech stocks have dropped as much as 20% over the past month.
  
• As Facebook faces fire, U.S. laws protecting kids online languish behind Europe.
  
• Nearly 70% of big U.S. companies are adopting a flexible work model, says Morgan Stanley.

Zero Hedge:

• Large New York Health Care System Fires 1,400 Unvaccinated Workers.
• "A Politically-Motivated Abuse Of Power" - GOP Rep. Rages At AG Garland's 'Weaponization' Of The DoJ Against Dissenting Parents.
• Greenwald: Democrats, Media Do Not Want To Weaken Facebook, Just Commandeer Its Power To Censor.
• GM's Autonomous Cruise Division May Hit $50 Billion In Revenue "Over The Next Couple Years". 
• Who's Running The Show? Kerry Tells French TV Biden 'Literally Not Aware' Of International Spat.
• Senators Urge Biden To Expel 300 Russian Diplomats - Largest 'Retaliatory' Ban In US History.
• Death By Inflation Or Debt Defaults? Luke Gromen On The No-Win Situation We're Trapped In.
• New Vehicle Sales Plunge As Prices Soar Amid Supply Chain Chaos, Chip Shortages, & Depleted Inventories.
• Dems Try To Sneak Handout That Provides "Billions Of Dollars" To Illegal Aliens With Kids Into Biden's Spending Bill.
• FBI Counterterrorism Official Admits Agency Doesn't Track Antifa Violence.
• China Folds, Unloads Australian Coal Despite Import Ban Amid Power Crunch.
• Will The Holiday Season Be Ruined By The Global Supply Chain Crisis?
• They're Coming For You.
• Soros Is Cashing Out Of Stocks, Putting Some Capital Into Cryptocurrencies.

Reuters:

• Singapore has administered at least 9,486,020 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that's enough to have vaccinated about 83.2% of the country's population(4th best rate in world). Singapore is reporting 2,300 new infections on average each day(294 infections per 100K people reported last 7 days), 100% of the peak - the highest daily average reported on Oct. 5.

Newsmax:

• Arizona AG: There's a Border Agent Purge at Biden's Pro-Immigrant DHS.  
• Nunes: Whistleblower Diverts From Facebook Conservative Animus.
• Fired Texas Nurse: Lost My Livelihood by Rejecting Vax.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: NIH Director Francis Collins Resigns After Documents Reveal He Lied About His Involvement with Gain-of-Function Research in Wuhan Lab.
• It Begins: Federal Investigators Are Issuing Warrants for Google to Turn Over Anyone Typing in Certain Search Terms. 
• AUSTRALIA IS LOST: Government Launches Orwellian Selfie Check-In Program for Home Quarantine (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Slurs his Words, Mumbles about Grandpop and “Jargy” Stations – Then Finishes Off Speaking Gibberish in Michigan (VIDEO).
• Far-Left Activist Masquerading as Facebook ‘Whistleblower’ Says Uncensored Social Media ‘Destabilizes Democracies’ (VIDEO).
• Thousands of Trump Supporters Line the Streets to Greet Biden as He Arrives in Howell, Michigan (VIDEO).
• China’s Local Governments Have ‘Hidden’ Debt Estimated at $8 Trillion or Nearly Half of the Country’s GDP.
•  FBI Raids NY City Police Union Headquarters – After Union Openly Backed President Trump for the First Endorsement in its History.
• Biden Effect: Taiwanese President Warns of Catastrophic Consequences if China Takes Over Island Days After Military Incursions.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Developer Misses Payment Amid Deepening Housing Market Woes.
• Sharri Markson: Unmasking the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the Origins of COVID-19.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.25 +5.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 51.25 +3.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.78 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,978.0 +29.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.10 +.3%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.27%.

• S&P 500 futures -.1%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.1%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AYI)/2.87
• (STZ)/2.79
  

After the Close:

• (LEVI)/.38
• (RGP)/.31
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• ADP Employment Change for Sept. is estimated to rise to 430K versus 374K in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +710,400 barrels versus a +4,578,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -68,900 barrels versus a +193,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -844,100 barrels versus a +384,000 barrel gain prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.23% versus a +.6% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Factory Orders report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (MRVL) investor day, (DOW) investor day and the (GM) investor event could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Declining US Covid Cases, Oil Gain, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.8 -9.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,007.0 +240.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.42 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.1 -1.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 93.0  -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -15.3%

• NYSE Arms .77 +20.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.20 +.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.93 -.74%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.28 -1.11%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.75 +4.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 182.48 -.66%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 35.91 -1.31%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 9.5 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.78 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 121.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.65 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.6 +5.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.1 +.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .6 -1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +6.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 97.6% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 221 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -8/100K people
• 42% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +488 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -368 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/consumer discretionary/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in some biotech longs and added some commodity longs
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) REITs -.5% 2) Gold & Silver -.4% 3) Airlines -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PCRX, BBBY, ACHC, GTHX, NAPA, PVAC, AVIR, COMM, AEO, RVNC and SNDX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TBT 2) PBF 3) STZ 4) CFX 5) HOG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UPH 2) RIDE 3) CMTL 4) GDOT 5) COLM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +2.7% 2) I-Banking +2.1% 3) Semis +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ACMR, SI, ADGI, LOVE, BE, ESTE, SWX, NET, SBTX, MVIS, CLSK, IVZ, EGLE, RSI, MARA, CYRX, IRNT, NFLX, SGFY, DDS, AFRM, CDXS, AOS, SQ, HRMY, SCHW, CRK, CPE, WLK, SSYS, FOCS, RMNI, MRVL, ASPN, EXPI, PLBY, KMX, DOCU, RL, SWI, PCAR, MKTX, TASK, FTNT, FDX, MTOR, CSX, STT, GSKY, MRO, ARCB, CMI, GEL, ACA, MET, PRPL and NDAQ
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CEI 2) XLRE 3) DVN 4) IEF 5) CSX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ZETA 2) BE 3) OPAD 4) RSI 5) ABMD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume