Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 77.0% of Issues Advancing, 19.4% Declining
• 90 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 57.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,152.0 +175.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,372 +.19%
  
• Vix 19.4 -7.5%
• Total Put/Call .88 -10.2%
• TRIN/Arms .47 -55.2%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 51.5 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.69 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,978.0 +2.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.60 -.2%.
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.25%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CAG)/.49
• (HELE)/2.25
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Sept.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 348K versus 362K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2762K versus 2802K the prior week.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Aug. is estimated to rise to $17.5B versus $17.0B in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Industrial Production report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (LDOS) investor day and the (VMW) analyst meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Declining US Covid Cases, Technical Buying, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +3.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,917.0 -35.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.89 -.38%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +1.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.5 +1.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0  -3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +21.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.2 +43.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.284 +.33%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 378.76 +.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.76 +2.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 107.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.37 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 185.32 +1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 35.82 -.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 unch.
  

• TED Spread 9.0 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.75 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.75 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.67 -.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 126.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.9 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.9 -9.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -5.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 218 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -3/100K people
• 41% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +232 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -351 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +65 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer discretiony sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.7% 2) Airlines -2.1% 3) Energy -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BBBY, COMP, LZ, MKTX, LEVI, HBI, CRI, EGLE, ESTE, EA, X, KTB and RXRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EGHT 2) LEVI 3) CEI 4) WKHS 5) BBWI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CEI 2) HESM 3) DNA 4) HOV 5) CDW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +1.1% 2) Internet +.8% 3) Software +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AFRM, BTBT, AYI, NFE, NET, DOCS, HIBB, BNED, MRVL, MARRA, PAR, ROKU, ASAN, ENPH, RGNX, COIN, PVAC, VITL, CLSK, CERT, TUP, INSM, UPST, DDS and CERT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LEVI 2) EGHT 3) XRT 4) EMB 5) NXTD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AFRM 2) AYI 3) BTBT 4) ASAN 5) JAZZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 23.5% of Issues Advancing, 73.3% Declining
• 14 New 52-Week Highs, 75 New Lows
• 56.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,840.0 -111.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,400 +.76%
  
• Vix 22.8 +7.1%
• Total Put/Call .97 +15.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.25 +56.3%