Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Policy-Induced Labor/Product Shortages, US Stagflation Fears, Rising China Debt Angst, Gambling/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.5 -5.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,327.0 +202.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.06 +.69%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.87 -.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 -3.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0  +16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +10.5%

• NYSE Arms .58 -19.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.71 +.75%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 373.39 -.66%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.69 +2.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.64 +2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 182.95 +1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 34.75 -1.8%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.0 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.75 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.63 -.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 127.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.30 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.4 -1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -76.7 -1.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.5 +1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 +4.0 basis points
• 99.5% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 97.1% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 211 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -3/100K people
• 40% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.4% 2) Medical Equipment -.9% 3) Semis -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PNW, BMY, DOCS, JYNT, NSTG, RKLB, RGP, PRLD, NTLA, EDIT, NKTX and ALLO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CCXI 2) CEI 3) REI 4) BIG 5) BMY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKTX 2) ALLO 3) OMER 4) TMC 5) CHTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.6% 2) Energy +2.3% 3) Road & Rail +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CCXI, AEHR, ORIC, EFTR, CAR, OPEN, MNTV, PVAC, METC, MUR, QS, LYEL, APA, CVET, COMP, SI, AFRM, UPWK, ORGO, SILK, PLUG, MGY, UNM, GM, DV, BIG, FANG, CLR, CRK, PXD, OXY, COP, CPE, WHD and FOCS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UNIT 2) CCXI 3) GEO 4) UNM 5) CEI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CCXI 2) AEHR 3) ORIC 4) EFTR 5) CAR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 54.0% of Issues Advancing, 41.4% Declining
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 56.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,318.0 +194.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,329 -.31%
  
• Vix 18.8 -4.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.0 +5.3%
• TRIN/Arms .50 -30.6%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.0 -3.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.75 -2.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.74 -.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,920.0 -202.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.2 +.5%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.21%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated at 500K versus 235K in Aug.
• The Unemployment Rate for Sept. is estimated to fall to 5.1% versus 5.2% in Aug.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +2.0% gain in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The European Trade Data report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished China Bubble-Bursting Fears, Declining US Covid Cases, US Debt Ceiling Can-Kicking, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.1 -9.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,176.0 +199.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.16 +.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.88 -1.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.0 -2.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0  -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms .56 -46.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.93 -1.48%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.54 -1.0%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.54 -2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.70 -4.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 180.51 -2.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 35.39 -1.32%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 8.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.0 -1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.55 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.78 +.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 124.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.5 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -75.4 -11.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.1 -1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 214 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -4/100K people
• 40% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +417 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long