Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Why China’s Developers Have So Much Dollar Debt.  
• The Chinese Companies Polluting the World More Than Entire Nations.  
• Korea’s Economic Growth Slows on Supply Snags, Virus Curbs.
  
• Stocks Set to Rise as Earnings, Inflation Weighed: Markets Wrap.
• Tesla-Hertz Blockbuster Deal Paves Way to Take EVs Mainstream.
  
• Elon Musk’s Fortune Soars $36 Billion in a Day on Hertz Order.
  
• U.S. Issues New Pandemic Travel Rules for Vaccination, Testing.
  
• Exxon CEO Floats Pay Hikes to Combat ‘Major’ Employee Attrition.  
• Bitcoin Is Still Concentrated in Few Hands, Study Finds.  
• Democrats Want Immigration Deportation Shields in Economic Plan.

Wall Street Journal:

• Shoppers Find Discounts Are in Short Supply for Holidays.
• Co-Head of Blackstone Hedge-Fund Business to Leave.
• Does Taiwan’s Military Stand a Chance Against China? Few Think So.
• Democrats Negotiate Tax, Healthcare Provisions as Biden Seeks Deal This Week.
• China Evergrande Says Work on Some Residential Projects Has Resumed.
  

Fox News:    

• Maskless Biden’s move before shaking hands with public ignites fury.
  

CNBC.com: 

• Economists expect shipping problems to linger well into 2022.
• Democrats trim Biden’s social spending plan as they rush to strike a deal this week.
• Facebook shares rise as investors focus on earnings beat and look past whistleblower document dump.
•   Private equity, hedge funds accounted for over $625 million in 2020 political spending, study says.
• Salad chain Sweetgreen files to go public, hopes to double footprint within 5 years.
• Zuckerberg slams recent negative press before painting rosy, futuristic vision for Facebook.
• Business groups ask White House to delay Biden Covid vaccine mandate until after the holidays.

MarketWatch.com:           

• Tesla’s market cap tops $1 trillion after Hertz’s plan to buy 100,000 Tesla EVs.
  
• Apple 'very likely' to face Justice Department antitrust suit: report.
  
• Why the S&P 500 could continue climbing into year’s end, eclipsing its 21% rally so far in 2021.

Zero Hedge:  

• 'Fed-Protected' Man Identified As Mystery Instigator Of J6 Capitol Breach.
• California Decriminalized Shoplifting For Amounts Under $950, Guess What Happened Next.
• One Bank's "Persistent Inflation" Meter Just Hit A Record 96 Out Of 100.
• Biden Plays Chicken With Semitruck Drivers.
• "Ample Scientific Data": Congresswoman Introduces 'Natural Immunity Is Real Act'.
• Walking The Path Of Self Destruction.
• Greenwald: Pierre Omidyar's Financing Of The Facebook "Whistleblower" Campaign Reveals A Great Deal.
• Stocks, Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion All Bid As Billionaire Tax Threat Builds.

Newsmax:

• Biden FEMA Denies Texas Appeal for Border Crisis Emergency Funds.
• Rep. Mace: Fauci Must Answer to 'Gruesome' Dog Experiments.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Fauci’s House of Horrors: NIH Spent 16+ Million in Taxpayer Funds on Disturbing ‘Toxic Brain Injection’ Experiments on Monkeys; “Drilled Holes in Their Skulls and Implanted Devices into the Brain”.
• Gov. DeSantis Calls For “Mad Scientist” Fauci to be Fired and Investigated for Funding Illegal Gain-of-Function Research and Beagle Torture (VIDEO).
• Pure Marxism: McAuliffe Supporters Are Posting Signs Promising to “Keep Parents Out of Classrooms” as Campaign Winds Down.
• VIDEO: Chants Break Out of “Let’s Go Brandon!” at Massive Municipal Workers March and Rally in New York City.
• Juvenile Court Judge Finds Sufficient Evidence Teen Sexually Assaulted Girl in Loudoun County High School Bathroom.
• Update: NBA Player Enes Kanter Cuts Another Video: “Dear Brutal Dictator Xi Jinping and the Chinese Government – Free Tibet!” – Releases Free Tibet Freedom Shoes.
• “Tell Biden We Are Coming” – Massive Illegal Caravan Continues to March Through Mexico En Route to Open US Border – Now 20 Miles North of Tapachula (VIDEO).
• WSJ Report Reveals Facebook Employees Eager to Shut Down Conservative Content — As Gateway Pundit Has Been Reporting for Years.
• Democrat Dingell Admits the Inflation Rate Did Not Even Come Up in Discussions at the White House over Their Mammoth Spending Bill.

The Epoch Times:

• China Starts Vaccinating Children as Young as 3 Amid New Surge of COVID-19 Cases.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.25 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.5 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.42 -.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,619.0 -31.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.45 -.54%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.37%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MMM)/2.23
• (ARCH)/5.64
• (ADM)/.89
• (AWI)/1.28
• (CIT)/1.17
• (GLW)/.58
• (LLY)/1.96
• (GE)/.44
• (HAS)/1.70
• (JNLU)/-.18
• (LMT)/6.80
• (NVS)/1.64
• (PCAR)/1.20
• (PII)/1.96
• (PHM)/1.79
• (RTX)/1.09
• (SHW)/2.05
• (UBS)/.45
• (UPS)/2.55
  

After the Close:

• (AMD)/.66
• (GOOG)/23.37
• (BXP)/1.70
• (BYD)/1.26
• (CHRW)/1.41
• (COF)/5.16
• (CB)/2.30
• (IEX)/1.59
• (JNPR)/.46
• (MANH)/.54
• (MSFT)/2.08
• (NCR)/.64
• (HOOD)/-.20
• (TER)/1.43
• (TXN)/2.08
• (TWTR)/.18
• (V)/1.54
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.4% gain in July.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.55% gain in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 757K versus 740K the prior week.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 108.5 versus 109.3 in Sept.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 5.0 versus -3.0 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB Bank Lending Survey, $60B 2Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports and the (NVS) investor event could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.2 -1.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,673.0 +36.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.13 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.21 +.77%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.9 -.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0  +51.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .66 -21.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 -3.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.61 -.78%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.79 +1.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.55 -.25%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.32 -.18%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 180.86 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 34.28 -.36%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.5 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.5 -2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.46 +.54%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 119.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.55 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -27.4 +5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -68.1 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.8 -1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 +3.0 basis points
• 95.6% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 90.9% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 155 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -6/100K people
• 29% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -.4% 2) Oil Banks -.4% 3) Utilities -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GOF, PINS and GDYN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KMB 2) CRTD 3) HAS 4) LC 5) URA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ML 2) CSPR 3) RVNC 4) AMRN 5) GOTU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +4.1% 2) Alt Energy +4.0% 3) Gold & Silver +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BE, RDW, SSYS, DIBS, LCID, TSLA, MARA, CHK, IONQ, COIN, CLF, CELH, ATHA, ARLP, MQ, PRLB, CMBM, AGC, CWEN, PYPL, SITC, ME, SMPL, O, XPDI, GES, TPIC and R
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MARK 2) GNUS 3) POWW 4) XELA 5) HTA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MARK 2) SSYS 3) GRNQ 4) IQST 5) MX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sector Declining
• 62.6% of Issues Advancing, 32.9% Declining
• 168 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 60.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,655.0 +18.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,648 +.46%
  
• Vix 15.2 -1.2%
• Total Put/Call .64 -23.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.5 +6.4%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                          

• Behind China’s Rising Emissions are Hundreds of Hidden Polluters.  
• Chinese Economy Risks Deeper Slowdown Than Markets Realize.
• China Expects New Covid Outbreak to Worsen in Coming Days.  
• Electric Car Revolution Crushes Japan’s Struggling Small Towns.
• Saudi Arabia to Use $110 Billion Gas Field for Blue Hydrogen.
• Lira Drops to Record After Erdogan’s Threat Against Envoys.
• Faith In Mega Tech’s Growth Is On the Line This Earnings Season.
• La Nina Threatens to Worsen Energy Crisis With Colder Winter.
  
• Yellen Expects High Inflation Through Mid-2022 Before Easing.  
• Pelosi Open for Democrats to Raise Debt Ceiling Without GOP.  
• Biden-Manchin Meeting Makes ‘Progress’ in Bid to Break Deadlock.  
• U.S. Losing Steam Foretells Europe’s Future Headwinds: Eco Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Solar and Wind Force Poverty on Africa.
• Energy-Stock Surge Tests Investors’ Focus on Climate.
• Tax on Billionaires’ Unrealized Gains Will Likely Be in Budget Package, Democrats Say.
• U.S. Companies Bet Shoppers Will Keep Paying Higher Prices.
• It’s Madness to Quarantine Schoolchildren.
• Home Prices Rise, and Single People Run Out of Options.
• Millions of Workers Stay Home to Watch Young Children as Daycares Stay Dark.
• Inspired by Trump, French Far-Right TV Host Surges in Polls.
• Endemic Covid-19 Has Arrived in Portugal. This Is What It Looks Like.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (CHK), (HPQ) and (WE).

Fox News: 

• Biden gets some bad news from a 2024 poll out of a crucial primary state.

CNBC: 

• Top analysts see upside in these stocks as earnings season continues.
• Chinese EV maker Xpeng launches upgraded semi-autonomous driving features in a challenge to Tesla.

Zero Hedge: 

• EcoHealth Throws NIH Under The Bus Over Wuhan Gain-Of-Function Report; Researcher Claims 'Massive Cover-Up'
• "Euphoria Is Increasing": Goldman Doubles Down On Market Meltup Call, Sees $90BN In New Stock Buying This Week.
• This Shows Why The Yuan Is Defying Economic Slowdown.
• "Welcome To The Hunger Games": More Chicago Officers 'Summoned' As City Council Mulls Vax Mandate Reversal.
• "RV Capital Of The World" Sees Influx Of New Residents As Americans Abandon Big-City Living.
• 'The Richest He's Ever Been': Trump Set To Gain Billions In Net Worth On Moonshot SPAC.
• Shadow Inflation: Shipping Costs Are Up Way More Than You Think.
• Majority Of Maryland Parents Oppose Vaccine Mandates For Students, Teachers, Survey Says.
• Port Congestion Could Be Worse Than "Lehman Crash", Flexport CEO Warns .
• Tesla Bumps Model S And Model X Prices Higher By $5,000 Each.
• Martin Armstrong: Are The US Supply Chain Disruptions Deliberate?
• "Emergency Mode" - China Warns Covid Outbreak To Worsen In Coming Days.
• Edible Oil Prices Hit Record High As Food Inflation Treat Soars.
• Physicians & The Vaccine Tyranny. 
• Gordon Chang: Joe Biden's Taiwan Policy Is Now A Total Disaster.

MarketWatch.com:                

• Apple faces supply-chain issues, but can its buying power keep earnings on track?  
• Holiday earnings forecasts have been lumps of coal so far, and here come the biggest ones.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WOW! UK School Director Admits on National TV that 30 Kids Are Out with COVID and 14 Are Out with Vaccine Side Effects — WTH?
• Concerned Mother Wants to Air TV Ad on Pfizer’s Dangerous Vaccine After Daughter Is Severely and Permanently Damaged — But Comcast Refuses Ad at Last Minute.
• FINALLY MAKING HEADLINES: As TGP Reported in August — Dr. Fauci Used Taxpayer Money to Have Dogs Tortured and Eaten Alive By Parasite-Infected Flies (PHOTOS).
• Gov. DeSantis Announces $5,000 Proposed Bonus to Abused Police Officers from Liberal Cities to Move to Florida (VIDEO).
• Biden Gang Supports Reelection of WHO Director General Tedros Despite His Connections to Terrorists and China and Terrible COVID Performance.
• Sen. Josh Hawley Calls on AG Merrick Garland to Resign After Mobilizing FBI Against Parents Without Legal Basis and Premised on Complete Lies.
  

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Agent Accused of Recruiting Spies to Steal US Aircraft Tech Stands Trial.
• China’s Debt-Ridden Evergrande Resumes Work on More Than 10 Property Projects.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.5 -1.0  basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 -1.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.16 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,553.0 -83.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 +1.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%.
• S&P 500 futures -.24%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (KMB)/1.65
• (LII)/3.62
• (OTIS)/.73
  

After the Close:

• (BXS)/.66
• (CDNS)/.75
• (CLS)/.32
• (CCK)/1.97
• (FB)/3.17
• (LOGI)/.92
• (PKG)/2.34
• (UHS)/2.76
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 6.5 versus 4.6 in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The European Import/Export Prices report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.