Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,592.31 +1.3%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 35,792.40 +.32%

• NASDAQ 15,463.58 +2.5%

• Russell 2000 2,291.68 +.14%

• S&P 500 High Beta 78.24 +.49%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 315.52 +1.4%

• Wilshire 5000 47,620.56 +1.0%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,987.52 +2.4%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,616.68 -.36%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 740.58 +.31%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,445.11 +.86%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,356.60 +1.6%

• Transports 15,899.09 +.93%

• Utilities 914.62 -.59%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 80.02 -.02%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 50.73 -2.3%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,484.30 +.2%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 920.58 -.15%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 483,515 +.21%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 235 -206

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -40.4 -4.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 429,594 +6.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,205,589 -1.2%

• Total Put/Call .86 +2.4%

• OEX Put/Call 3.19 -20.3%

• ISE Sentiment 99.0 +11.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.47 +17.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,293.0 -337.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 4.49 -.31%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.6 +6.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.98 -3.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.3 +3.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.13 -.11%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,605.32 -1.8%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.559 Trillion +.91%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +9.427 Million

• AAII % Bulls 39.8 -15.1%

• AAII % Bears 29.4 +5.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 237.70 +.33%

• Crude Oil 83.41 -.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 246.20 -.8%

• Natural Gas 5.52 +2.5%

• Heating Oil 249.64 -1.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 165.0 (1,000/metric ton) -13.2% 

• Gold 1,782.62 -.55%
• Silver 23.88 -1.8%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 492.3 -1.8%

• Copper 437.40 -2.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 481.0 USD/Metric Tonne+.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.10 USD/Metric Tonne -11.0%

• Lumber 593.70 -11.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,308.90 +1.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 685.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +6.6% +6.1 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +4.7% +1.1 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +6.9 -13.4%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 104.9 +62.7%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 217.27 +.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.1 +16.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.8 +16.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.9 -15.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 11/3

• US Dollar Index 94.13 +.58%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,733.60 +.11%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 62,131 +2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.75 -.42%
  

• Yield Curve 109.0 -14.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.55% -10.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.517 Trillion -.11%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.5 +14.5%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 133.20 -.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 +17.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.0 -1.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 248.05 +4.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.32 +.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.7 -1.0%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 83.11 -.01%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.40 -2.9%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52% -2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 8.5 +1.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.20 -.09%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 291.0 +3.1%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.03 +2.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 186.40 +.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 64.75 -5.5 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 72.25 +.5 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.8 -.4 percentage point
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,179.60 -.80%

• Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 299,250 -6.5%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% -.1 percentage point
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 36.9 +1.9% 

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.14% +5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 645,100 +.3%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 47.9 -1.8 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +15.3% +.2 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +31.3% +42.4 percentage points 

• Nationwide Gas $3.40/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 3,630 -17.7%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,315.27 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.5 unch.
• Container Ships Anchored 1,018 unch.
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 111.15 -15.9%

• Rail Freight Carloads 271,567 +1.6%
• TSA Total Travelers 1-Year Ago Same Weekday 873,636 +15.7% 
• US Covid-19:  153 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -8/100K people
• US Covid-19:  29% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak -1.0 percentage point
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -.8%
  

Leading Sectors

• Alt Energy +10.3%

• Software +3.0%
  

• Semis +2.3%

• Robotics +2.3%
  

• Road & Rail +2.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Gold & Silver -3.0%
  

• Defense -3.1%

• Airlines -4.1%

• Oil Service -6.1%

• Tobacco -7.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (29)

• ATEN, BKKT, ASPN, METC, QS, X, VCRA, IONQ, LOB, ATHA, OCGN, RILY, NXGN, CYH, DXCM, SM, LC, ASIX, FUV, XPDI, LCID, DEN, BE, BLNK, ABBV, BLNK, SSNC, CHWY and BSIG
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)

• SNAP, NTGR, FLL, WEX, BALY, CHTR, LTC, LBRT, CRTX, SBUX, RLGY, LOPE, ADGI, DVA, HVT, FTDR, ZEN and CDNA
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Policy-Induced Labor/Product Shortages, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Dollar Strength, Airline/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.5 -.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,240.0 -55.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.78 -.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 +.44%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.1 -5.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0  -29.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 +32.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.30 +39.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.37 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 354.08 +.55%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.18 +2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 +9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.02 +1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 186.18 +2.17%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.41 -.62%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 8.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.5 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.10 -.42%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 109.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.1 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.8 +3.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.9 -13.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -5.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 92.6% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 153 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -7/100K people
• 29% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +82 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +1.3% 2) Software +1.2% 3) Shipping +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ATEN, ASPN, METC, X, IONQ, VCRA, MTTR, POLY, QS, BKKT, TREE, LOB, SM, ATHA, CYH, RILY, DEN, AVTR, ASIX, BLFS, FUV, GWW, LC, BLND, BAH, OCGN, PETQ, VRSN, NWL, EBAY, SSNC, ABBV, CUBI, TIL, ACHC, CFFN, BLNK, NATI, ENPH, CERN, SPWR, SNII, CHWY, CHD, XONE and GBT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FE 2) KOPN 3) UAVS 4) ZEN 5) CLMT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ASPN 2) VCRA 3) TEAM 4) DXCM 5) SM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 47.2% of Issues Advancing, 48.8% Declining
• 96 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 56.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,240.0 -56.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,981 -.11%
  
• Vix 16.4 -.54%
• Total Put/Call .77 +18.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.15 +22.6%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Biden-Xi Thaw Quietly Takes Hold as Taiwan Tensions Flare.
• Celtics’ Enes Kanter Sends More Tweets Critical of China.  
• Commodities Whipsawed on Speculation of China’s Next Energy Step.
• U.S. Futures Dip; Asia Stocks Set for Steady Start: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Up as OPEC+ Expects Tighter Market This Quarter.
• Biden’s $1.75 Trillion Gambit Shifts Focus to Democrats’ Divides.
  
• BlackRock’s Hedge Fund Star Gets Paid More Than CEO Larry Fink.  
• Citi Requires Vaccines for All U.S. Workers, Citing Biden Order.  
• NYPD Has 10,000 Unvaccinated Officers as Mandate Deadline Approaches.  
• U.S. Steel Shares Surge After Stock Buyback Announcement.
• Zendesk to Buy SurveyMonkey Parent Momentive Global.

Wall Street Journal:

• Global Chip Shortage ‘Is Far From Over’ as Wait Times Get Longer.
• Hospital Prices Are Arbitrary. Just Look at the Kingsburys’ $100,000 Bill.
• Some Employees Are Willing to Leave Jobs Over Vaccine Mandates, Survey Find.
• The Left’s Climate Humiliation. They were expecting mandates, but they’ll have to settle for more corporate welfare. 
• The Summer of Stagflation. The White House policy mix has yielded slower growth but higher prices. 

Fox News:   

• Fox News Poll: New leader rockets to front of pack in bellwether governor's race with days before election.
• Biden will go overseas with NOTHING to show as divided Dems fail to reach deal.
  
• CONCHA: McAuliffe, Biden fixate on Trump in desperate attempt to win Virginia race.
• EXCLUSIVE: Alec Baldwin goes luxury shopping one week after tragedy on set.
  

CNBC.com:

• Biden’s social spending framework gets a chilly reception from holdouts in Congress. 
• Former NY Gov. Cuomo charged with sex crime, months after resigning amid harassment probe.
• Brunswick CEO: It may take 3 years for boat inventories to return to normal.
• Facebook changes company name to Meta.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Amazon, Apple, Starbucks & more.
• Why Ford’s stock is surging while shares of GM are flat after Q3 earnings beats.

MarketWatch

• Starbucks stock falls as sales growth fails to meet expectations.
• ‘It’s like being ripped into two’: Chipotle workers overwhelmed by online orders and furious customers.

Zero Hedge:  

• Pelosi Plans Fizzle After Jayapal 'No' Sinks Thursday Infrastructure Vote.
• Coast Guard Says 100 Containers Fell Off Cargo Ship, Some Carrying Christmas Decorations And Toys. 
• McDonald's Hikes Big Mac Prices To Offset Surging Costs.
• Dave Chappelle Says Distributors Are Cancelling His New Documentary Over Netflix Special Controversy.
• Terry McAuliffe Hires Controversial Ex-Clinton Lawyer Marc Elias.
• Biden Wants To Give Separated Illegal Immigrants $450,000 Per Person.
• Mexican Tourist Mecca Is Spiraling Out Of Control As Cartels Wage War.
• Three Ways Government Spending Is Ripping Us Off.
• Healthcare Exec Fired For Being White Wins $10 Million In Discrimination Case.
• Inexpensive Antidepressant Slashes COVID-19 Hospitalizations By Over 30%: New Study Finds.
• Apple Plunges After First Revenue Miss In 4 Years, Warns Of $6 Billion In "Supply Constraints".
• Free Stuff Isn't Free.
• Shippers Fear "Catastrophic" Fallout From "Crazy" California Port Fees.
• Amazon Tumbles After Missing Revenues And Earnings, Guiding Far Below Consensus.
• Dollar Dives Amid Crypto Chaos As Biden Unveils Big-Spending Bill.

Newsmax:  

• Sen. Blackburn: AG Garland 'Inappropriate' at Senate Hearing.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden’s COVID Nightmare – One-Third of US Military Are Still Not Fully Vaccinated.
• LIVE STREAM VIDEO: WI Sheriff Schmaling: ‘ELECTION LAW WAS NOT JUST BROKEN BUT SHATTERED!” – Releases Evidence of Election Fraud in Racine, Wisconsin!
• BREAKING: Republican Youngkin Up 8 Points in FOX News VA Governor’s Race Poll — Following McAuliffe Campaign Events with Obama, Kamala and Joe Biden.
• Ireland Has Massive New COVID Outbreak Despite 91% Vaccination Rate.
• Florida School Board Member Chaperones Little Children on Gay Bar Field Trip.
• Biden Regime to Pay Hundreds of Millions to Illegal Alien Families ‘Separated’ at Border in 2018 – $450,000 Per Illegal Alien.
• Garbage Piling Up Everywhere, 45% of Firemen and 25% of Police Facing Termination Friday – This Is Democrat De Blasio’s New York City.

The Epoch Times:

• Conference: ‘China: Forced Organ Harvesting and the Chinese Communist Party’.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.25 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 45.25 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.36 +.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,202.0 -94.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 +1.9%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.03%.

• S&P 500 futures -.32%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.64%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABBV)/3.22
• (B)/.50
• (CRI)/1.73
• (CBOE)/1.43
• (CERN)/.82
• (CHTR)/5.80
• (CVX)/2.19
• (CL)/.80
• (XOM)/1.52
• (LYB)/5.73
• (NWL)/.50
• (PSX)/1.93
• (RCL)/-4.00
• (WY)/.56
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 3Q is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.7% gain in 2Q.
• Personal Income for Sept. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
• Personal Spending for Sept. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in Aug.
• The PCE Core MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Oct. is estimated to fall to 63.5 versus 64.7 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Housing Data report, (ALGN) investor day and the (JW/A) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.