Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,463.07 +6.0%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices

• DJIA 34,755.0 +5.5%

• NASDAQ 13,893.84 +8.2%

• Russell 2000 2,085.58 +5.3%

• S&P 500 High Beta 76.06 +9.0%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 252.14 +10.5%

• Wilshire 5000 45,264.0 +6.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,730.04 +8.1%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,625.84 +4.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 773.04 +3.8%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,257.65 +2.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,615.04 +10.9%

• Transports 16,497.72 +8.3%

• Utilities 983.04 +.45%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.7 +6.9%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.40 +6.6%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,464.58 +.43%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 927.41 +.04%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 463,919 +.49%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 11 +672
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -36.99 -2.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 361,665 -1.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,896,974 -6.5%

• Total Put/Call .79 -24.8%

• OEX Put/Call 1.75 +20.1%

• ISE Sentiment 108.0 +18.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.20 -13.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,484.0 +739.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.25 +3.0%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 24.4 -20.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.8 -8.2%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.8 -5.9%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.4 -4.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,203.73 +.42%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.559 Trillion -.37%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +12.464 Million

• AAII % Bulls 22.5 -6.3%

• AAII % Bears 49.8 +8.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 290.73 -1.5%

• Crude Oil 104.66 -4.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 323.59 -2.09%

• Natural Gas 4.87 +2.4%

• Heating Oil 358.40 +5.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 240.0 (1,000/metric ton) -33.3%
  

• Gold 1,927.33 -3.0%
• Silver 24.93 -3.5%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 589.68 -2.8%

• Copper 473.10 +2.5%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 640.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 154.75 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%

• Lumber 1,200.0 +2.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,557.89 -1.3%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 805.0 USD/Short Ton +1.3%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.3% +.8 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.5% -.3 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.1 +5.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 436.74 n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.88 +.87%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.0 -12.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.3 -20.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.7 +11.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 58.3%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike, 41.7%(+8.8 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point rate hike on 5/4

• US Dollar Index 98.26 -.87%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,725.47 +.89%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 41,715 +7.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.53 +2.9%
  

• Yield Curve 25.25 -2.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.15% +15.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.917 Trillion +.49%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.37 -7.55%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 142.13 -.01%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 159.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.75 -6.7%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 204.10 -9.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.3 -3.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.57 -8.3%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,747.27 -52.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.5 -.5%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.9% -8.0 basis points

• TED Spread 54.0 +10.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 +4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.0 +3.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.75 -13.8%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 323.0 -2.9%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 79.43 -13.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 278.32 -19.7%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 108.0 unch.
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.75 -.5 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.6 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,017.70 -2.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 223,000 -3.8%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% -10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 40.5 +6.5% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.48% +16.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 496,500 -1.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +12.8% -.3 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +.9% +13.1 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $216.4M +170.8%
  

• Nationwide Gas $4.27/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,588 -4.8%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,366.0 -.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 144.52 +3.2%

• Rail Freight Carloads 263,746 -1.0%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,221,946 +11.6%
• US Covid-19:  72 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22  -11/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -89.0%(-2.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Growth +8.1%

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Value +2.2%
  

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +13.1%

• Internet +10.5%
  

• Alt Energy +9.2%

• Digital Health +8.8%

• Video Gaming +8.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Utilities +.5%
  

• Steel -.1%

• Energy -.9%

• Gold & Silver -1.7%
  

• Oil Service -6.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (27)

• GTLB, ASAN, APLS, WRBY, SPTN, CRCT, KDNY, KZR, RBLX, PD, LOVE, EWCZ, MDB, SQ, UPST, SUMO, LFG, ISEE, ACLS, DV, ZM, DECK, GSHD, BROS, NOG, ANET, FOSL and RMBS
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (1)

• CMC
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on China Market Support Measures, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.3 -5.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,453.0 +16.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.62 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.4 -.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -13.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 +3.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.63 -1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 392.0  -1.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.01 +1.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.86 -5.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 278.31 +3.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.5 +.64% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,921.15 +3.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 53.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.0 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  109.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 50.27 +.02%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.84 -.72%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .39% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 25.25 +2.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 153.80 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.0 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.3 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.7 -2.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.9 +2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 72 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +203 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +130 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 51.3% of Issues Advancing, 45.6% Declining
• 39 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 39.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,487.0 +46.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,362 +1.39%
  
• Vix 24.6 -4.2%
• Total Put/Call .80 -11.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.5 +24.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 -4.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 52.0 -8.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.17 -.10%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,326.0 -111.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.5 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.39%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ONON)/.00

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 6.1M versus 6.5M in Jan.
• The Leading Index for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (WRB) 3-for-2
• (ACMR) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Eurozone Trade Balance report and the (AFRM) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Commodity/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.7 -3.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,422.0 +316.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.77 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.9 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.6 -5.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 -5.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.66 +115.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.68 -3.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.94  -1.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.97 -4.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.50 -11.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 271.32 -2.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.44 +.6% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,743.10 -31.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 53.25 +9.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 +3.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  115.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 50.30 -.02%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.22 -.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .37% -6.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 23.0 -7.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 150.6 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.8 +6.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.6 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.3 -4.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.88 +8.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 75 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +6/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -89.0%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -112 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/medical/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.2% 2) Video Gaming -1.8% 3) Banks -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BRBR, IEP, ACEL, HPQ and AMBC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CFX 2) DG 3) IHI 4) NLSN 5) CWEB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BEKE 2) CATO 3) BABA 4) NIO 5) WRBY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume