Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,531.84 -.51%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices

• DJIA 34,709.23 -.65%

• NASDAQ 14,176.63 +.02%

• Russell 2000 2,086.21 +.02%

• S&P 500 High Beta 75.73 -.89%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 259.14 +1.1%

• Wilshire 5000 45,837.60 -.35%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,792.13 +.30%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,640.57 -.99%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 799.14 +1.4%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,277.35 -.47%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,642.70 -.59%

• Transports 15,512.13 -4.6%

• Utilities 1,052.21 +2.5%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.03 +.87%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.71 +1.5%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,493.98 +.49%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 927.71 -.36%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 467,194 +.26%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 29 +7
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.3 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 339,969 -.54%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,788,211 -3.4%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +9.3%

• OEX Put/Call 1.82 -5.5%

• ISE Sentiment 105.0 +7.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .70 +17.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,316.0 +67.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.55 +2.3%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 19.8 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.7 +3.1%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.2 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.3 -5.6%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,771.8 +1.5%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.590 Trillion +.65%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +2.268 Million

• AAII % Bulls 31.9 -2.7%

• AAII % Bears 27.5 -22.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 295.18 -4.0%

• Crude Oil 99.39 -11.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 315.0 -7.1%

• Natural Gas 5.74 +3.4%

• Heating Oil 346.69 -16.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 251.4 (1,000/metric ton) -9.6%
  

• Gold 1,921.13 -1.6%
• Silver 24.61 -3.0%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 586.13 -1.5%

• Copper 470.0 +.88%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 641.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 159.5 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%

• Lumber 963.90 -5.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,559.10 -2.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 830.0 USD/Short Ton +1.8%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.3% +.4 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.3% +.4 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 4.6 -6.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 60.4 -69.5%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.1 +.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -9.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.2 -4.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.2 -8.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 26.7%(-.6 percentage point) chance of +0.0-25.0 basis point hike, 73.3%(+.6 percentage point) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point rate hike on 5/4

• US Dollar Index 98.60 -.19%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,744.43 +.89%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 46,339 +.96%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.50 +1.09%
  

• Yield Curve -6.0 -24.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.37% -10.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.899 Trillion -.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.99 -3.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 149.07 +7.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.1 -1.0%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 207.89 -3.2%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.4 -1.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.7 -.4%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,755.86 -7.9%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.6 +1.4%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.82% -15.0 basis points

• TED Spread 45.5 +1.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +6.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.76 -7.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 319.0 -1.8%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.4 -9.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 225.67 -4.6%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 112.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.5 +.5%

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 11.0 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,062.40 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 208,500 -1.7%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate .9% -.1 percentage point
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 39.99 +1.1% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.90% +40.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 425,100 -6.8%

• Weekly Retail Sales +12.9% +.2 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -3.1% +1.0 percentage point
• Box Office Weekly Gross $95.8M -31.5%
  

• Nationwide Gas $4.22/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,358 -7.3%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,274.9 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.5 +12.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 137.02 -8.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 271,262 +1.8%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,196,867 +9.3%
• US Covid-19:  64 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of peak on 1/14/22  -0/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -92.7%(-3.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Growth +1.1%

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Value -1.0%
  

Leading Sectors

• Digital Health +5.0%

• Airlines +3.9%
  

• Shipping +3.2%

• REITs +2.9%

• Biotech +2.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Disk Drives -4.2%
  

• Computer Hardware -4.6%

• Road & Rail -4.8%

• Semis -5.2%
  

• Banks -6.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)

• VTNR, RLMD, ARQT, RARE, INSP, CRNX, BPT, CUTR, LNTH, NFE, REPL, GDYN, CALM, EW and GME
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (37)

• COLB, HPQ, KEY, GFS, DELL, AOSL, ZUO, GXO, CONN, ACIW, ACLS, INTC, FAF, MU, UPS, XPO, BGFV, MKSI, AEO, LSTR, EXPI, ITOS, DIOD, FNF, HTLD, WERN, SAIA, KNX, ODFL, QCOM, DNUT, ARCB, SNDR, HUBG, R, JBHT and DCT
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Pullback in Inflation Expectations, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Metals & Mining/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.5 -.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,250.0 +2.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.5 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 -1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.9 +2.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +5.2%

• NYSE Arms .83 -68.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.39 -.34%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 348.84 -1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.4 +.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.8 +1..6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.64 +.85%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.6 +.01% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,873.41 +2.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 45.5 -4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.70 -.10%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.57 -.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .51% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -5.5 -7.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 159.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -8.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.2 -12.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.2 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.83 -7.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 64 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.7%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +105 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 57.3% of Issues Advancing, 38.0% Declining
• 69 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
• 47.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,305.0 +56.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,764 +.22%
  
• Vix 20.0 -2.6%
• Total Put/Call .91 -5.2%
• TRIN/Arms .71 -72.9%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.75 +4.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +3.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.73 -.07%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,198.0 -55.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.7 -1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 490K versus 678K in Feb.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated to fall to 3.7% versus 3.8% in Feb.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.3% gain in Jan.
• ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 59.0 versus 58.6 in Feb.
• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 80.0 versus 75.6 in Feb.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to fall to 13.45M versus 14.07M in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone PMI report and the (NVST) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.