Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.5 +3.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 63.75 +3.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.38 +.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,313.0 -56.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.6 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.

• S&P 500 futures -.25%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANGO)/-.01
• (APOG)/.72
• (CAG)/.58
• (STZ)/2.12
  

After the Close:

• (PSMT)/.99
• (WDFC)/1.02
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 200K versus 202K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1302K versus 1307K prior.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to rise to $18.1B versus $6.838B in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, German Industrial Production report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (ACN) investor conference and the (CRWD) investor briefing could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Russia Sovereign Default Worries, Fed "Behind the Curve" Concerns, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.2 +15.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,263.0 -114.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.87 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 +1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.6 +6.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +7.5%

• NYSE Arms .86 -5.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.80 +2.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 345.04 +3.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.25 +2.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +3.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 234.02 +2.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.7 -.08%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13,104.5 +197.0%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 29.5 -3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  113.0 unch.
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.27 -.16%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.30 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .67% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 10.5 +5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.4 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.5 -3.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.5 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.83 -2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 64 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -93.4%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -215 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -144 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -5.8% 2) Gambling -5.7% 3) Internet -4.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• JBHT, SAVE, GGPI, NVRO, DELL, GTES, AAWW, R, ARIS, TEX, DICE, BSTZ, KN, AQUA, KMX, MTSI, QCOM, PATH, MKTX, LEVI, IRTC, SST, SYNA, SHAK, CUTR, GXO, VICR, PLBY, RH, COWN, SHLS, PENN, JBLU, ULCC, SNOW, PI, SAVA, NFE, RCUS, PLAY, ANET, FRSH, SHYF, EVGO, IOT, HCP and NRGV
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JBLU 2) FEZ 3) IGT 4) AEP 5) LEVI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HYZN 2) CELH 3) AFRM 4) CANO 5) SHYF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +1.6% 2) Utilities +1.4% 3) Telecom +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BTAI, GOGO, BBAI, IPI, RPM and SGH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DUK 2) CTIC 3) SAVE 4) GOGO 5) NEXT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MOBQ 2) NEXT 3) GOGO 4) LVO 5) BBAI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 19.1% of Issues Advancing, 77.7% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 191 New Lows
• 45.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,260.0 -115.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,468 -2.04%
  
• Vix 24.4 +15.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.0 +7.5%
• TRIN/Arms .87 -4.4%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.75 +1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.75 +3.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.45 -.06%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,294.0 -82.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.7 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (GBX)/.19
• (RPM)/.30
• (SCHN)/1.38
• (SMPL)/.27
  

After the Close:

• (LEVI)/.42
• (RGP)/.40
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,183,000 barrels versus a -3,449,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to decline by -201,780 barrels versus a +785,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -598,000 barrels versus a +1,395,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.28% versus a +1.0% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC March 16 Meeting Minutes.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking, German Factory Orders report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the FDA meeting on Covid boosters could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.