BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:13 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -7.1% Below 100-Day Average
6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
43.2% of Issues Advancing, 52.6% Declining
89 New 52-Week Highs, 165 New Lows
39.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 43.7%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,648.0 +134.0 points
Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,908 -1.01%
Vix 21.6 -1.1%
Total Put/Call .79 -12.2%
TRIN/Arms .93 +63.2%

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:20 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.5 -1.25 basis points.

China Sovereign CDS 67.0 unch.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.53 +.03%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,464.0 -47.0 points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.5 +.3%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%.

S&P 500 futures -.02%.

NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ALLY)/1.93
(C)/1.41
(ERIC)/1.38
(GS)/8.98
(MS)/1.72
(PNC)/2.78
(PGR)/1.24
(RAD)/-.57
(STT)/1.48
(TSM)/7.16
(USB)/.95
(UNH)/5.36
(WFC)/.81

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Retail Sales Advance MoM for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +3% gain in Feb.
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.4% decline in Feb.
The Import Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +2.3% versus a +1.4% gain in Feb.
The Export Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a +3.0% gain in Feb.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 170K versus 166K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1500K versus 1523K prior.

10:00 am EST

Business Inventories for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.1% gain in Jan.
Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for April is estimated to fall to 59.0 versus 59.4 in March.
Univ. of Mich. Consumer 1Y Inflation Expectations for April is estimated to rise to +5.5% versus +5.4% in March.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The ECB rate decision and the German Wholesale Price report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 1:47 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Higher

Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising

Volume: Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 22.4 -7.7%
Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,441.0 +97.0 points

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.72 +.7%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -1.0%

CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.6 -3.1%

ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +14.0 points

Total Put/Call .89 -4.3%

NYSE Arms .64 -48.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.48 -.43%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 372.96 +1.8%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.4 +1.3%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 161.0 -1.0 basis point

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.75 +.5%

Emerging Market CDS Index 248.50 -1.8%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.42 +.28%
Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,650.76 +4.8%

2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 +1.5 basis points

TED Spread 28.0 unch.

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -.25 basis point
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 115.0 -6.0 basis points
iShares CMBS ETF 49.33 +.1%

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.53 +.38%
3-Month T-Bill Yield .74% +2.0 basis points

Yield Curve 33.75 unch.

China Iron Ore Spot 153.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.60 +1.8 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.7 unch.

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.2 +1.2 points

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.83 -7.0 basis points
0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

72 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +0/100K people from prior report.
New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -93.2%(+.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +93 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating +73 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/consumer discretionary/tech/medical/industrial sector longs

Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:16 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Utilities -.4% 2) Pharma -.3% 3) Insurance -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

JPM, ABBV, HLMN, FULC and NSTG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) EWH 2) FIS 3) IHI 4) SKX 5) BBBY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) NSTG 2) JPM 3) BCYC 4) PYPL 5) CRNC

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:07 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +2.2%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Airlines +4.8% 2) Gambling +4.2% 3) Shipping +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

RYI, CRWD, FRC, ALK, UAL, W, SD, WEBR, DAL, CCL, METC, CZR, AEO, CXM, OWL, IONQ, BTU, LXU, THS, LPLA, APLE, AMR, PTEN, JBLU, ULCC, AIMC, AZEK, ACI, BRZE, MORF, SKT, TXRH, BTAI, LXP, UCTT, PRIM, NTNX, AVTR, COOP, MXL, SHOO and SNDR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) GPS 2) PPL 3) TMUS 4) CTIC 5) GOGO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) SRRA 2) HPK 3) GPS 4) ATRS 5) AAL