BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:27 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.5 -1.5 basis points.

China Sovereign CDS 69.75 -1.25 basis points.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.27 -.10%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,820.0 +40.0 points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.0 -.18%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%.

S&P 500 futures +.4%.

NASDAQ 100 futures +.6%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ABB)/.33
(ALK)/-1.51
(AAL)/-2.41
(T)/.78
(AN)/5.25
(BX)/1.10
(DHR)/2.66
(DOW)/2.05
(FCX)/.89
(GPC)/1.68
(HTLD)/.19
(HRI)/1.96
(KEY)/.49
(NUE)/7.32
(PM)/1.49
(POOL)/3.09
(DGX)/3.00
(SNA)/3.66
(TSCO)/1.42
(UNP)/2.57

After the Close:

(SAM)/1.70
(FE)/.61
(ISRG)/1.08
(PPG)/1.11
(SNAP)/.01
(SIVB)/5.58

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for April is estimated to fall to 21.7 versus 27.4 in March.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 180K versus 185K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1459K versus 1475K prior.

10:00 am EST

The Leading Index for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Japan CPI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (SCHW) spring update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Mostly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Dollar Weakness, Healthcare/Transport Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 1:26 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Higher

Sector Performance: Mixed

Volume: Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 20.2 -5.3%
Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,833.0 +4.0 points

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.67 -.29%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.37%

CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.0 -11.7%

ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -28.0 points

Total Put/Call 94.0 -1.0%

NYSE Arms 1.43 +97.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.95 -1.5%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.72 +.41%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.27 -2.7%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 +1.0 basis point

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.65 +.53%

Emerging Market CDS Index 254.41 -1.4%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.4-.02%
Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,319.80 +11.0%

2-Year Swap Spread 27.5 +2.5 basis points

TED Spread 23.5 +1.0 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -.75 basis point
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 117.0 +3.0 basis points
iShares CMBS ETF 48.72 -.06%

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.29 -.03%
3-Month T-Bill Yield .83% +1.0 basis point

Yield Curve 24.75 -9.0 basis points

China Iron Ore Spot 153.05 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.40 -.5 point

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.8 -.2 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.1 -.6 point

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.94 -2.0 basis points
0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +3/100K people from prior report.
New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.9%(+.5 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +48 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts

Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:52 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Internet -4.1% 2) Social Media -3.9% 3) Video Gaming -2.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

CMA, ARCT, DIS, BKR, WBD, PACW, PARA, METC, HLLY, RBLX and NFLX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) NFLX 2) HL 3) DBD 4) AGNC 5) REI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) NFLX 2) HLLY 3) ARQQ 4) CVNA 5) GRAB

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:42 PM

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Value +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Computer Services +3.3% 2) Medical Equipment +2.6% 3) Road & Rail +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

HCSG, LRN, CAR, AVNT, MTB, VYGR, MRTN, IBM, MGNI, LPX, THC, BCC, OMC, HTZ, SI, BPT, VST, DICE, REXR, IPG, MKTX, DCP, TRNO, AZTA, BRCC, DHR, UHS, EGP, BBN, BSX, PTC, CDW, AXSM, EW, WTFC, ISRG, KNX, TTD, COCO, RQI and ABT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) CSX 2) ENV 3) IBM 4) IGT 5) ITB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) ALVR 2) LRN 3) LLAP 4) IBM 5) OMC

Charts:

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:17 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -9.7% Below 100-Day Average
9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
67.3% of Issues Advancing, 29.4% Declining
132 New 52-Week Highs, 59 New Lows
41.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 45.2%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,857.0 +27.0 points
Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,763 -1.32%
Vix 19.9 -6.7%
Total Put/Call .96 +1.0%
TRIN/Arms 1.62 +131.4%

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:28 PM