BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, April 22, 2022

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:38 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -1.7% Below 100-Day Average
1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
28.1% of Issues Advancing, 68.8% Declining
12 New 52-Week Highs, 196 New Lows
45.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 49.7%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,569.0 -120.0 points
Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,642 +.18%
Vix 24.4 +7.5%
Total Put/Call .98 -10.1%
TRIN/Arms .87 -31.5%

Thursday, April 21, 2022

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:16 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.5% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.25 +1.75 basis points.

China Sovereign CDS 72.5 +2.75 basis points.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.18 unch.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,607.0 -87.0 points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.0 +1.3%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -2.2%.

S&P 500 futures -.38%.

NASDAQ 100 futures -.5%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(AXP)/2.47
(ALV)/1.07
(AZZ)/.71
(CLF)/1.49
(GNTX)/.33
(HCA)/4.24
(KMB)/1.23
(NEM)/.73
(RF)/.47
(SAP)/1.13
(SLB)/.33
(VZ)/1.35

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for April is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 58.8 in March.
S&P Global US Services PMI for April is estimated at 58.0 versus 58.0 in March.
S&P Global US Composite PMI for April is estimated to rise to 57.9 versus 57.7 in March.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Surging Inflation Expectations Despite Hawkish Fed Commentary, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 2:43 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower

Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining

Volume: Around Average

Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +7.7%
Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,787.0 +10.0 points

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.14 +.26%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 +.2%

CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.2 +9.4%

ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -5.0 points

Total Put/Call 95.0 +3.3%

NYSE Arms 1.22 +8.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.25 +3.0%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 345.90 -2.4%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.37 +1.3%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 +1.0 basis point

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.25 -1.8%

Emerging Market CDS Index 257.60 +1.3%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.2 -.68%
Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,331.20 +2.6%

2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 +.75 basis point

TED Spread 27.75 +4.25 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 +1.5 basis points
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 118.0 +1.0 basis point
iShares CMBS ETF 48.60 -.37%

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.22 -.20%
3-Month T-Bill Yield .82% -1.0 basis point

Yield Curve 22.5 -2.25 basis points

China Iron Ore Spot 153.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 66.90 -2.5 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.5 -1.3 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.1 -1.0 point

10-Year TIPS Spread 3.03 +9.0 basis points
0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

88 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +4/100K people from prior report.
New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.8%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -273 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -104 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -107 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts

Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts

Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:03 PM

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth -1.7%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Gold & Silver -6.0% 2) Alt Energy -5.0% 3) Social Media -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

CVNA, TCBI, RIOT, LPLA, SCCO, BX, SBNY, BHLB, PWR, RBLX, AXSM, PRVA, AXSM, BKU, FB, PACW, SIL, UPST, SEAS, BKR, RNG, MORF, MGI, HCC, NEE, RIVN, HLLY, ENVX, EXAS, SMG, RES, MP, COIN, MTCH, LRN, QTRX, NEM, RCKT, SPWR, RUN, BPT, MOS, WBD, DOV, NOVA, EFX, BTAI, LWLG, FCX, TBK, LEU, GNRC, METC, AMR, CDXS, GTLB, CELU, ARCT, BLFS, SAVA, IPI, ENPH, CDLX, PLUG, CENX, SNBR, BTU, SHLS, AA and XRX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) KNX 2) AA 3) SCHW 4) NFLX 5) CVNA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) AMPE 2) AA 3) GWGH 4) MCRI 5) SNBR

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:49 PM

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Airlines +4.1% 2) Steel +1.2% 3) Computer Services +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

UAL, GPRE, WSO, LBRT, NUE, VERU, JBLU, DAL, AAL, ESTE and DOW

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) CENX 2) ETRN 3) MMM 4) SCHW 5) DHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) IIIN 2) WSO 3) NUE 4) TSLA 5) CSX