Monday, May 16, 2022

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Internet -2.8% 2) Cybersecurity -2.2% 3) Gambling -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • RH, TXG, F, PEGA, SSYS, FROG, DISH, DT, KYMR, CELH, NOW, PCTY, BBWI, SG, SWTX, MSTR, FLYW, IOT, VMC, TSLA, QS, CAKE, BEAM, PRVA, ABNB, SQSP, BROS, SBNY, NUE, METC, EXPE, SI, APP, COIN, TOST, U, RIVN, FNKO, NEWR, HCAT, AMR, CFLT, RNG, RDFN, W, MARA, TWLO, MDB, INBX, DDOG, NET and HCP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CIM 2) REI 3) INVH 4) PACB 5) SFT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AKBA 2) AKKT 3) WIX 4) GRAB 5) ASND
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +2.8% 2) Energy +2.0% 3) Agriculture +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GFF, PRAX, TDW, RTLR, MANT, YOU, WOW, CRF, CLM, SAVE, ZNTL, INSM, TVTX, VTNR, NE, CVNA, LLY, TWI and FRG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) REKR 2) HEAR 3) SAVE 4) WEAT 5) LLY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DTST 2) SAVE 3) WOW 4) DSP 5) BTCS

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -2.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 43.4% of Issues Advancing, 52.9% Declining
  • 26 New 52-Week Highs, 130 New Lows
  • 25.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 39.8% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,996.0 -83.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,898.0 -1.1%
  • Vix 28.7 -.8%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -12.4%
  • TRIN/Arms .86 +186.6%

Sunday, May 15, 2022

Monday Watch

Night Trading

  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.25 -3.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 82.5 -3.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.72 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,122.0 +45.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.3 -.43%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (TSEM)/.51
  • (WRBY)/-.04
After the Close:
  • (SSYS)/-.04
  • (TTWO)/1.03
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for May is estimated to fall to 15.0 versus 24.6 in April.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Wholesale Price report, Needham Tech/Media Conference, the (DDD) investor day and the JPMorgan Homebuilding/Building Products Conference could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, May 13, 2022

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Wall Street Journal:

Fox News:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:     
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Stocks Sharply Higher into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft Landing" Hopes, China Peak Virus Lockdown Expectations, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.0 -5.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,970.0 +416.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.5 +1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.8 +.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.9 +1.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +115.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .95 -24.6%
  • NYSE Arms .44 -33.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.0 -1.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 429.54 -.89%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.50 -2.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.75 -1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 293.99 -.92%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.64 -.57%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,280.66 -2.3%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 46.0 basis points -5.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 basis points -3.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  125.0 +2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.46 -.41%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.74 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .96% +8.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 33.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 128.35 USD/Metric Tonne -1.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.8 +8.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.8 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.6 -4.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 +1.0 basis point
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 191 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +27/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -87.7%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +178 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/medical/commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure:  50% Net Long