Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Fox News:
Zero Hedge: 
Newsmax:   
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.5 +3.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  84.75 +5.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.64 unch.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,842.0 -33.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.0 +1.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.40%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.62%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (BJ)/.72
  • (GOOS)/-.01
  • (EXP)/1.83
  • (KSS)/.70
  • (MNRO)/.46
  • (PLCE)/1.46
  • (VIPS)/1.90
After the Close:
  • (AMAT)/1.90
  • (DECK)/1.32
  • (FLO)/.39
  • (PANW)/1.68
  • (ROST)/1.00
  • (VFC)/.47
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for May is estimated to fall to 15.0 versus 17.6 in April.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 200K versus 203K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1320K versus 1343K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for April is estimated to fall to 5.65M versus 5.77M in March.
  • The Leading Index for April is estimated unch. versus a +.3% gain in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High Yield Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.4 +16.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,923.0 -478.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.18 -1.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.7 +.08%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.3 +1.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 -30.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.1 +10.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.94 +321.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.32 +7.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 435.15 +3.2%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.60 +5.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 193.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.68 +.32%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 301.75 +3.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.61 -.34%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15,754.8 +190.0%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 41.75 basis points unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  128.0 +2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.5 +.54%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.62 -.47%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.02% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 21.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 122.2 USD/Metric Tonne -3.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.3 -2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.5 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.3 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 unch.
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 206 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.4%(+2.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -541 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -164 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -131 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my commodity/industrial/medical/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and took profits in some consumer discretionary longs
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -4.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Retail -9.1% 2) Homebuilding -6.3% 3) Gambling -6.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • U, RTLR, ABR, RVT, AFRM, GXO, EXEL, SKT, MEDP, SWTX, CRI, WMT, ACRE, INBX, ALBO, UNFI, DDOG, HBI, COIN, WBA, OM, MGM, AEO, BBWI, RRR, MDB, MUSA, THC, SJM, JBHT, DOCS, CFLT, PLCE, KSS, KTB, ULTA, RH, KNX, DG, M, BBY, COST, ASO, FIVE, BIG, BOOT, TSCO, SAIA, WSM, CENX, DKS, DDS, SCVL, DLTR, BJ, WOOF, EWCZ, TGI and TGT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IHI 2) STWD 3) TSN 4) SABR 5) DLTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TGT 2) COST 3) ENDP 4) DLTR 5) CCL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -2.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +.1% 2) Shipping unch. 3) Utilities -.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TJX, ATUS and UPST
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BBWI 2) GNUS 3) MNKD 4) TGT 5) MDLZ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AGYS 2) DLO 3) MX 4) SNWV 5) TJX

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +2.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 18.6% of Issues Advancing, 78.4% Declining
  • 21 New 52-Week Highs, 253 New Lows
  • 26.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 39.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,013.0 -388.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,798.0 -1.2%
  • Vix 29.0 +10.9%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +5.0%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.58 +243.6%

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.0 -3.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  79.0 -2.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.8 -.15%  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,451.0 +50.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.5 -.14%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.59%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ADI)/2.12
  • (LOW)/3.22
  • (TGT)/3.07
  • (TJX)/.60
After the Close:
  • (CSCO)/.86
  • (CPRT)/1.14
  • (SNPS)/2.37
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for April is estimated to fall to 1757K versus 1793K in March.
  • Building Permits for April is estimated to fall to 1817K versus 1873K in March.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of 1,471,430 barrels versus a +8,487,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -500,000 barrels versus a -3,607,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -242, 860 barrels versus a -913,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.5% versus a +1.6% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK CPI report, 20Y T-Bond auction, week MBA Mortgage Applications report, BMO Farm to Market Conference, Wells Fargo Financial Services Conference, (AKAM) analyst day, (TMO) investor day and the (SQ) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.