Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 34.4% of Issues Advancing, 61.8% Declining
• 11 New 52-Week Highs, 38 New Lows
• 20.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,675.0 -243.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,356.0 -.95%
  
• Vix 25.0 +7.1%
• Total Put/Call .97 -2.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.68 +102.4%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• China’s Slowdown Spills Over to Major Economies Through Imports.
• Pelosi’s Taiwan Ambiguity Has China Fuming Ahead of Biden Call.  
• China’s Gen Z Is Dejected, Underemployed and Slowing the Economy.  
• Korea’s Economic Growth Accelerates as Consumption Rallies.
• Pre-Fed Caution May Subdue Asia Open as Bonds Slip: Markets Wrap.
  
• This Dallas Fed Economic Survey Is the Perfect Snapshot of the Economy Right Now.
• Shallow Recession Calls Are ‘Totally Delusional,’ Roubini Warns.  
• Morgan Stanley Warns Stock Bulls Deluded by ‘Wishful Thinking’.
• Walmart Tumbles as Discounts Spur New Cut to Profit Forecast.
• NXP Semiconductors Gives Bullish Forecast on Industrial and Auto Market Demand.  
• WWE Identifies $14.6 Million in Payments Tied to Vince McMahon.  
• Texas School Mask Mandate Ban Upheld by Federal Appeals Court.  
• Americans Driving Less With Pump Prices Still Higher Than a Year Ago.  
• What to Know About NFTs and the ‘Bored Ape’ Boom and Bust Cycle.  
• Citrix Bankers Weigh New $15 Billion Debt Plan to Stem Losses.

Wall Street Journal:    

• Covid or Vacation? Workers Aren’t Showing.
• Walmart Cuts Profit Outlook, Lowers Prices on Goods.
• Student Loan Servicers Told to Hold Off on Sending Billing Statements.
• Big Hospitals Provide Skimpy Charity Care—Despite Billions in Tax Breaks.

Fox News:

• Sunday shows largely ignore violent assault on GOP gov candidate.

CNBC.com:

• The numbers show the U.S. economy is at least teetering on a recession.
• Stock futures fall after Walmart cuts forecast, says inflation hit consumer spending.
• Walmart cuts profit outlook as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on necessities.
• Weber shares tank as grill maker announces CEO departure amid disappointing sales.
• Premature rally? It’s too early to talk of central bank ‘peak hawkishness,’ strategist says.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Walmart, Target and more.

MarketWatch:          

• Celsius customers write pleas to bankruptcy court to get crypto back: ‘This is an emergency situation, simply to keep a roof over my family and food on their table.’  
• Revenge of the customer: Inflation-related complaints show up in Yelp reviews as customers face smaller portions and higher prices.
  
• Whirlpool slashes annual guidance, seeing demand slowdown.
  
• Why Snap’s pain may not be over yet.
  
• Robots are making French fries, chicken wings and more as restaurant kitchens gear up for an automated future.  
• Facebook enters a storm of uncertainty, and the wrong kind of ‘firsts’ are showing up.

Zero Hedge:

• Walmart Plunges After Slashing Profit Outlook, Blames Fuel/Food Costs.
• Adam Schiff: J6 Committee Could Subpoena Ginni Thomas About Justice Thomas.
• Biden Brags About Minuscule Gas Savings In Misspelled Tweet. 
• Internet Abuzz After Mysterious Red Lights Spotted In Atlantic Ocean.
• Pet Cloning Is Booming In China.
• 'Great Resignation'? Here's Why People Are Quitting Their Jobs.
• Why Job Turnover Is So High For Gen Z And Millennials.
• Uber-Bear Mike Wilson Is Almost Ready To Turn Bullish... Except For One Thing.
• China Approves HIV Drug For COVID Patients.
• Putin Turns The Screws: Gazprom Unexpectedly Halts Another Nord Stream Turbine Cutting Flows In Half; European Gas Prices Soar.
• DeSantis' Florida Blows Away Entire Country In Competition For People And Their Wealth.
• Stocks managed to claw back losses, DXY declined, Treasuries sold off, and oil trended higher - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• The 'Wile E. Coyote' Economy & The Long-Duration Stock Fallacy.
• Is The Clock Finally Running Out On Hunter Biden?
• Stocks mixed ahead of key risk week full of big tech earnings and FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• US SPR Releases Set To End This Fall.
• Oil & Gas Jump; Bonds, Big-Tech, & Bitcoin Dump As Recession/Rebalance Looms.

Newsmax:

• Poll: Dem Supporters Far More Dismissive of US Constitution Than GOP Voters.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• “I’m Not Going to Define it From Here” – Karine Jean-Pierre When Asked What is Exactly the White House’s Definition of a Recession (VIDEO).
• Digital ID QR Code Now Required To Access Gas Pumps In Sri Lanka.
• Verizon Leftists Drop OAN from Its Cable Channel Lineup – Leftists Cheer the News.
• Dr. Fauci Regrets Not Pushing For More Stringent Covid Restrictions, Says Americans Should Wear Masks In “Schools, Places of Work” (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Rep. Chuck Wichgers Becomes THIRD WISCONSIN Lawmaker to Sign on to Decertify 2020 Wisconsin Election Results. 
• ‘Safe And Effective’: Fully Vaxxed And Boosted Democrat Senator Joe Manchin Tests Positive For COVID.
• “What is a Recession?” Biden Regime Shamelessly Attempts to Downplay Economic Fallout by Redefining the Term ‘Recession’.

The Epoch Times: 

• Intelligence Committee Member Warns of Possible Threat Targeting Americans’ DNA.
• Bill Gates Funds China’s Scientist Recruitment Project.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 845,608 Reports(+3,035 from prior week) Through July 15th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 148.75 -9.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.75 -3.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.93 -.05%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,965.0 +55.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.5 +1.13%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.35%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.45%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MMM)/2.44
• (ACI)/.92
• (ADM)/1.72
• (KO)/.67
• (GLW)/.56
• (GE)/.42
• (GM)/1.32
• (KMB)/1.31
• (MCD)/2.47
• (NVR)/126.82
• (PCAR)/1.83
• (PII)/2.12
• (PHM)/2.63
• (RTX)/1.11
• (UPS)/3.16
  

After the Close:

• (GOOG)/26.76
• (BXP)/1.85
• (BYD)/1.39
• (CMG)/9.04
• (CB)/3.63
• (FE)/.52
• (JNPR)/.44
• (MSFT)/2.29
• (MDLZ)/.64
• (SYK)/2.28
• (TER)/1.14
• (TXN)/2.15
• (V)/1.74
• (WH)/.94
• (ZION)/1.36
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST:

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.6% gain in April.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for May is estimated to rise +1.45% versus a +1.77% gain in April.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY for May is estimated to rise +20.6% versus a +21.23% gain in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to fall to -14 versus -11 in June.
  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July is estimated to fall to 97.2 versus 98.7 in June.
• New Home Sales for June is estimated to fall to 660K versus 696K in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (NDAQ) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Leading Econ. Indicators, 5Y T-Note auction and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.9 +4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .53% -60.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,886.0 -84.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.68 +.68%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.1 +.61% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +28.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -12.3%

• NYSE Arms .97 -51.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.0 -.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 490.21 -2.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 461.0 -3.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 115.51 -1.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 227.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.04 -6.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 354.17 -.06%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.58 +.43%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,420.0 -.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 38.75 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  135.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.55 -.41%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.93 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.45% +6.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -22.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.87%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.60 +5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -95.80 -3.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.7 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 45.5%(+5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 45.1%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 266 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.3%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.6%(-1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +11 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -2.5% 2) Gold & Silver -2.5% 3) Restaurants -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BJRI, SLRC, GFS, VRNS, AEHR, MTZ, CDLX, SKYT, LPRO and NEM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) COOP 2) WHR 3) YETI 4) ANET 5) EWW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WEBR 2) NEM 3) LPRO 4) LMPX 5) COOK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.5% 2) Energy +3.7% 3) Steel +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IEA, SIGA, MP, WWE and RTLR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PPL 2) EXPR 3) SIGA 4) NEM 5) HBAN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SIGA 2) CMRX 3) MP 4) GOVX 5) WWE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -22.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 62.3% of Issues Advancing, 33.7% Declining
• 17 New 52-Week Highs, 37 New Lows
• 20.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,873.0 -95.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,505.0 -.71%
  
• Vix 23.6 +2.4%
• Total Put/Call .89 -16.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.11 -44.8%