Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 Index 4,094.85 -3.1%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 32,577.61 -3.4%

• NASDAQ 12,260.45 -3.5%

• Russell 2000 1,915.74 -2.1%

• S&P 500 High Beta 67.0 -2.92%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 202.83 -2.1%

• Wilshire 5000 41,286.0 -3.0%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,440.79 -3.54%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,518.37 -2.33%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 781.19 -2.2%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,133.88 -.52%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,943.22 -2.9%

• Transports 14,542.19 -1.5%

• Utilities 1,034.37 -2.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 67.8 -3.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.19 +.76%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,459.87 +.26%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 906.33 -.19%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 465,648 -.50%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -104 -73
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -27.3 -.14%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 214,940 +2.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,557,349 -.81%

• Total Put/Call .89 -18.5%

• OEX Put/Call 3.71 -9.5%

• ISE Sentiment 116.0 +30.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.08 +21.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.99 -.14%
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.79 -6.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 24.1 +14.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.24% +141.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.3 +2.1%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.8 -.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.7 -3.6%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,585.0 -1.4%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.570 Trillion +.18%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$13.700 Million

• AAII % Bulls 27.7 -16.8%

• AAII % Bears 42.4 +14.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 296.75 +1.6%

• Crude Oil 92.16 +2.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 275.06 -8.7%

• Natural Gas 9.43 +1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 339.20 euros/megawatt-hour +21.0%
  

• Heating Oil 399.40 +8.2% 
• Newcastle Coal 428.0 (1,000/metric ton) -1.2%
  

• Gold 1,735.0 -.57%
• Silver 18.86 -.16%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 439.77 +.74%

• Copper 368.80 +.83%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 391.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.6%

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.30 USD/Metric Tonne +2.6%

• Lumber  521.20 -.02%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,532.43 +3.63%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 680.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.6% unch.
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -12.1% +1.4 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 50.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.9 -9.8%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 112.57 +97.7%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.67 +.03:  Growth Rate +15.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.4 -.5 point

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.3 -7.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.7 +18.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.4 -8.0 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 45.5%(-7.5 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike, 54.5%(+7.5 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 9/21

• US Dollar Index 108.47 +.28%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,648.73 -.11%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 20,786.0 -3.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.08 -.35%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -38.75 -10.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.03% +5.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.816 Trillion +.02%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.76 -4.1%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 200.66 -.02%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 222.0 unch.
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.19 -5.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 257.32 -2.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.51 +.04%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.0 -9.93%

• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,047.64 n/a

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 +1.24%

• US Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting Core PCE YoY Current Period 4.62% -13.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.58% +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 24.0 -10.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 84.94 +4.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 344.0 -2.95% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351.0 +20.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 120.20 +9.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 314.70 -3.11%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.74 -.58%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .83 -9.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 5.3 -.6 percentage point
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,196.30 +.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 247,000 +.61%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 43.5 +.67% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 5.88% +22.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 270,100 -1.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +12.2% +.6 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +8.0% +5.9 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $88.3M -35.5%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.87/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,123 -12.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,904.0 -3.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 +5.9%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 54.24 -2.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 264,144 -.29%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,255,206 +12.7%
• US Covid-19:  189 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.9%(-.8 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) -14/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -75.3%(-1.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -1.6%

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth -3.1%
  

Leading Sectors

• Oil Services +4.7%

• Energy +4.6%
  

• Agriculture +4.2%

• Steel +4.0%

• Alt Energy +1.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Medical Equipment -3.5%
  

• Computer Hardware -3.9%

• Computer Services -4.3%

• Software -4.4%
  

• Retail -5.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (2)

• EVBG and SAVA
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (50)

• CRM, APLS, BOX, IIVI, ELAN, LCID, EVRI, SKY, DGII, ZS, ALLY, SEE, CCK, TWLO, COUP, TOL, GOOG, DLTR, LEN, KTOS, OSTK, PETS, BYND, BX, DKNG, ZM, HAIN, PCOR, ROKU, SYM, HPE, ASAN, FRPT, PTON, NVDA, LUNG, ANF, SQ, HPQ, RH, CHWY, SGEN, CRDO, UPST, MARA, CVNA, DELL, AFRM and DOMO
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on More Hawkish Fed Commentary, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.2 +11.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.24% +200.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 42.08 -2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.99 +.62%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.6 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.3 +5.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 unch.

• NYSE Arms .97 +54.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.84 +4.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.98 -.63%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351.0 +9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 118.94 +3.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 231.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.27 -1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 316.01 +2.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 +.26%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,588.9 n/a
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 24.25 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  135.0 unch.
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.77 -.10%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .83-2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.84 +.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.79% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 306.0 euros/megawatt-hour -4.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.3 -5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.7 +4.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.4 -2.2 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.67 -.07:  Growth Rate +15.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.4 -.2 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +1.57% +19.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.26 -1.0 basis point
  

• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -16.0 basis points: 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 48.0%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 44.2%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 189 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.9%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.3%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -251 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -14 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 15.3% of Issues Advancing, 80.6% Declining
• 20 New 52-Week Highs, 27 New Lows
• 33.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 42.2 -2.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,770.3 -.39%
  
• Vix 23.1 +6.2%
• Total Put/Call .77 -13.5%
• TRIN/Arms .95 +50.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.5 -9.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 48.75 -5.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.81 -.03%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 43.90 +1.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.19 -1.0 basis point
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.7 +.22%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.6%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (JKS)/.73
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for July is estimated at -$98.5B versus -$98.6B in June.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +1.8% gain in June.
• Retail Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.0% gain in June.
• Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.6% gain in June.
• Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.1% gain in June.
• The PCE Core MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in June.
• The PCE Core YoY for July is estimated to rise +4.7% versus a +4.8% gain in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence revisions.

Upcoming Splits

• (NDAQ) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking and the GFK Consumer Confidence could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, China Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.2 -2.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75% -8.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 42.7 -1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.05 -.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 -1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.6 -1.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 137.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.0 +44.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.60 -1.67%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 401.52 -.03%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 342.0 -2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 115.34 -1.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 224.0 basis points -8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.56 -4.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 307.44 -.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.95 +.54%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,588.9 n/a
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 22.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  135.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.71 -.08%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .85 -7.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.83 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.77% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -33.75 basis points (2s/10s) -6.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 310.50 euros/megawatt-hour +6.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.1 +3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.2 +8.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.6 -1.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.74 -.11:  Growth Rate +15.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.6 +.1 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +1.38% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.25 +5.0 basis points
  

• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -15.0 basis points: 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 46.3%(+5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 44.6%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 196 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.3%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.3%(-1.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +111 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long