Thursday, October 06, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 180.25 +9.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 100.0 +2.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.18 -.04%   
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.87 +.62%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.04 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.82 -.08%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.38%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.1%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated to fall to 250K versus 315K in Aug.
  • The Unemployment Rate for Sept. is estimated at 3.7% versus 3.7% in Aug.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -1.4% decline in July.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for Aug. is estimated to rise to $25.0B versus $23.811B in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Trade Data report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Diminished Fed "Pivot" Hopes, Dollar Strength, Utility/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.8 +4.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.13%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.1 -.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.75 -.45%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.6 +1.14% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +24.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .89 +1.14%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 +26.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 96.83 -.47%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 403.41 -2.21%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 448.0 -16.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 141.75 -.47% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 469.14 -4.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 176.24 +2.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 305.10 +.12%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.55 -.24%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.0 basis points +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -59.75 basis points +3.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  169.0 +2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 45.52 -1.32%
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 +8.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.23 -.39%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.36% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve -42.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.25%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 166.90 euros/megawatt-hour -3.91%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.70 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .5 -2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.7 -.8 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.07 -.18:  Growth Rate +15.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 15.9 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.02 -5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.70% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% unch.: CPI YoY +8.20% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 74.6%(+10.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 62.9%(+10.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.9%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -261 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +375 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -2.4% 2) REITs -2.2% 3) Telecom -2.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • HCP, XEL, EVRG, BLNK, IVR, T, CAG, SGH, BEPC, DOCU, AEP, EQIX, TGNA, MPW, DTE, SO, AVAV, LEVI, WDC, LAD, AN, WM, GNRC, WEC, RRC, GPRE, CCI, WU, TROX, OPI, CNP, CNK, RSG, MRVI, DLR, BIPC, SPLK, INBX, SMTC, SI, FBC, RGP and MNTK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) TIP 2) WDC 3) SYF 4) SABR 5) JNK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ANGO 2) SI 3) GMRE 4) NIO 5) SPLK
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +.9% 2) Homebuilding +.4% 3) Energy +.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BHVN, BSIG, SAVA, SNDX and PINS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SABR 2) STZ 3) MAT 4) PCG 5) AES
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CCNC 2) STAB 3) PRVB 4) BBRW 5) PERI

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -5.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 35.8% of Issues Advancing, 60.2% Declining
  • 21 New 52-Week Highs, 90 New Lows
  • 24.7%(-1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 +1.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.1 -.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,511.20 +.36%
  • Vix 29.4 +2.8%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +5.7%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.03 +19.8% 

Wednesday, October 05, 2022

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 171.0 +1.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 97.75 +2.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.47 +.11%   
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.05 -.6%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.97 unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.7 -1.1%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.46%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.61%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ANGO)/-.02
  • (CAG)/.52
  • (STZ)/2.81
  • (MKC)/.73
After the Close:
  • (LEVI)/.37
  • (ACCD)/-.50
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Sept.
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 203K versus 193K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1350K versus 1347K prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, German Factory Orders report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (NUVA) investor day and the ROTH Capital Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.