Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• UK Will Need to Cut 200,000 Jobs to Avoid Debt Spiral.
• NATO Once Feared a Putin Victory. Now It Worries Over His Defeat.  
• Inflation, Peso in Focus as Risks Mount in Marcos’s Early Days.
  
• Credit Suisse’s Wild Ride Is Starting to Spook Some Clients.
• Biden ‘Armageddon’ Warning Not Tied to Intel, White House Says.  
• Biden Tightens China Chip Rules on Chaotic Day for Industry.
• Morgan Stanley-Led Banks Face $500 Million Loss on Twitter Debt.  
• Summers Urges Fed to Keep Tightening, Even as ‘Collision’ Looms.  
• The Party’s Over in Credit Markets.
• Florida’s Biggest Utility Reconnects 99% of Customers After Ian.  
• Tesla’s Week to Forget Is the Anchor Weighing On the S&P 500.  
• The Fund That Helped Investors Bet Against Cathie Wood Is Taking on Jim Cramer.   
• ‘Not the Place to Be’: Young Professionals Are Leaving New York.  
• Mississippi Barge Backup Stalls Millions of Tons of Cargo.

Wall Street Journal:

• America’s Military Faces a ‘Window of Maximum Danger’. Marine turned lawmaker Mike Gallagher warns that the U.S. is far more vulnerable to losing a war than the public recognizes.
• Biden’s Marijuana Pardon Will Drive Crime Higher. No one is in federal prison for simple possession, but illegal drug use fuels antisocial behavior.
• Credit Suisse Ramps Up Efforts to Strengthen Finances.
• Elon Musk Got More Time to Close Twitter Deal, Not More Options.
• Insurers, Homeowners Gear Up for Fights After Ian.
• Memory Chip Makers Struggle With Declines in Demand, Price.
• You Hated Your Cable Package. Your Streaming Services Are Bringing It Back.
• Stock Funds Down 24.8% in 2022.
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom to Propose ‘Windfall’ Oil Profit Tax.

Fox News:

• Zelenskyy declares Russia has begun to 'prepare their society' for possibility of nuclear war.
• Liberal city hospital claims babies can tell if they're trans 'from the womb'.

CNBC:

• Here’s where the jobs are for September 2022 - in one chart.
• Tesla stock had its worst week since March 2020 during a ‘very intense 7 days’ for Elon Musk.
• September job gains affirm that the Fed has a long way to go in inflation fight.
• New cars are finally back in stock — but Americans might not be able to afford them.
• Bitcoin drops below $20,000, and Binance blockchain hit by $570 million hack: CNBC Crypto World.

Zero Hedge:

• CDC: Record Number Of Children Hospitalized With Weakened Immune Systems. 
• World Careening Toward "Dangerous New Normal", IMF Chief Warns.
• NYC Rent-Wage Gap Widest Since 2008.
• Kanye Accuses Kushner Of Sabotaging Trump.
• Victor Davis Hanson: An Epidemic Of Cognitive Impairment?
• Used Car Prices Record First Annual Drop In Two Years; Luxury Car Prices Take Beating.
• China Is Expanding Its Energy Footprint In The Middle East.
• California Begins Fighting Inflation With Stimulus Checks This Week.
• Experts Say 'Flawed' Study Used To Justify Mask Mandate, $3 Million In Fines Levied At Church.
• Max pain market can't get enough.
• HHS Probed EcoHealth Over Alleged 'Major Fraud' Against US, Emails Show.
• AP Fabricates "Completely False Story" To Smear DeSantis, Then Deletes.
• Red New Deal?
• Biden Admin Wanted To Embed 'Trusted Covid Messenger' On Joe Rogan, Barstool Sports.
• Shocking Consumer Credit Numbers: Everyone Maxed Out Their Credit Card As Economy Slid Into Recession.
• "Change Is Afoot": Home Buyers "Shocked" By Rates, Sellers Lament Price Plunges.
• Biden's Nuclear "Armageddon" Statements Not Based In Any Evidence: US Intelligence.

MarketWatch.com:               

• ‘Labor market is too hot for the Fed’: Economists react to September jobs report.
  
• S&P 500 would be in an ‘earnings recession’ if not for this one booming sector — but that may not last long   
• Airlines enter earnings season wrestling with fuel prices, hiring challenges.  
• Cracks in financial markets fuel debate on whether the next crisis is inevitable.  
• AMD warning prompts analysts to revisit whether PC chip market has bottomed yet.

NewsMax: 

• NYC Mayor: Migrant Surge Creating a $1B Crisis for City.
• Dick Morris: Biden Trying to 'Wag the Dog' With Nuke Warning.
• Montana AG Knudsen: Biden 'Ignoring' Fentanyl.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Konnech Election Software CEO Who Was Arrested Earlier For Ties to China and Labeled “Significant Flight Risk” Caught With Luggage On Way To MI Airport – Left Cell Phone Behind – Has “Substantial Ties to China”.
• Las Vegas Stabbing Suspect in US Illegally with Criminal Record in California.
• BREAKING BIG: Delaware Supreme Court Rules Mail-In Voting Unconstitutional and Strikes Down Same-Day Registration.
• Virginia County Stops Using Chinese-Linked Konnech Election Software Following CEO’s Arrest for Sending Data to China.
• Far-Left Politico Actually Wrote A Fair Piece About AZ Gubernatorial Nominee Kari Lake – Why? Because SHE’S GOING TO WIN.
• Joe Biden *Literally* Runs Away From Reporters Asking About His Warning US on Brink of Nuclear “Armageddon” with Russia (VIDEO).
• Wisconsin Judge Stops Illegal Absentee Ballot Spoiling – A Huge Blow to Committing Election Fraud.
• “This is Unsustainable” – NYC Mayor Eric Adams Declares State of Emergency Over Influx of Illegal Aliens (VIDEO).
• Five IRS Employees Charged with Stealing COVID Relief Funds to Finance Lavish Lifestyles, Including Trips to Las Vegas and Gucci Purchases.
• WATCH: “Did You Or Did You Not Vote To Reject 18,000 More Border Patrol Agents? – I Think The Correct Amount Of Illegal Immigration Is ZERO.” – Trump-Endorsed Blake Masters Stumps Mark Kelly at Debate. 
  

The Epoch Times: 

• HHS Probed EcoHealth Over Alleged ‘Major Fraud’ Against US, Emails Show.
• Mass Poisoning: How Beijing Has Weaponized Drugs.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 871,837 Reports(+4,210 from prior week) Through September 23rd, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 3,640.68 +1.68%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 29,275.25 +1.83%

• NASDAQ 10,667.03 +.72%

• Russell 2000 1,703.38 +2.46%

• S&P 500 High Beta 59.35 +3.6%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 169.02 +.38%

• Wilshire 5000 36,669.82 +1.59%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,143.19 +1.33%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,369.15 +2.29%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 694.16 -.28%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,069.86 +.4%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,512.53 +1.6%

• Transports 12,478.14 +3.43%

• Utilities 860.30 -3.2%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 65.58 +1.3%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 35.75 +1.93%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,436.13 +.91%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 915.56 +.09%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 440,924 +.53%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -359 +1,861
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -29.2 +5.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 226,080 -5.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,504,991 +1.6%

• Total Put/Call .96 -12.7%

• OEX Put/Call .71 +11.1%

• ISE Sentiment 96.0 -6.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .99 +3.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.1 +7.4%
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 1.78 +19.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 31.5 -.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.31% -8.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.0 +3.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.3 -5.61%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.4 -.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,151.15 +1.39%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  38.1 +25.5 points
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.578 Trillion -.26%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$6.256 Million

• AAII % Bulls 23.9 +19.5%

• AAII % Bears 54.8 -9.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 282.26 +5.2%

• Crude Oil 92.24 +15.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 273.72 +15.6%

• Natural Gas 6.82 -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 156.21 euros/megawatt-hour -16.1%
  

• Heating Oil 401.01 +18.7% 
• Newcastle Coal 380.0 (1,000/metric ton) -7.1%
  

• Gold 1,699.60 +2.34%
• Silver 20.22 +6.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 419.32 +4.6%

• Copper 338.90 -1.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 365.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.60 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%

• Lumber  448.70 +5.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,515.25 +1.1%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 575.0 USD/Short Ton -4.2%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.89% +46.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -9.9% +.2 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 50.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.07 -26.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 180.13 +68.3%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.92 -.13:  Growth Rate +15.6% -.2 percentage point, P/E 15.6 +.1 point

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.2 -12.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.9 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.9 +1.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 15.7%(-27.8 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike and 84.3%(+27.8 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 11/2 to 3.75-4.0%
  

• US Dollar Index 112.56 +.35%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,601.81 +.61%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 19,390.90 +.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.22 +.04%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -43.75 -2.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.87% +14.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.724 Trillion -.41%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.20 +1.8%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 209.28 -3.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 251.0 +10.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.1 -11.1%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 100.46 -8.7%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 296.66 -5.3%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.14 +1.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.67 -2.5%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.56 unch.

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.3% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +12.5% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +11.4% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% unch.: CPI YoY +8.20% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27% +12.0 basis points

• TED Spread 47.75 +2.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 +2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -61.0 +5.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 100.68 -6.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 359.0 -11.1% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 435.0 +24.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 149.44 -2.8%
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 426.64 +22.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 315.40 -5.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 173.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 45.42 -.86%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 +13.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 4.1 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,243.40 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 206,500 +.12%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.2 -.25%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.97% +14.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 218,700 -14.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +11.2% +30.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 .6% +2.4 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $60.8M +14.5%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.89/gallon +.09/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,992 +13.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,328.81 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 -10.0%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 51.5 -5.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 261,448 +1.4%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,361,680 +25.7%
• US Covid-19:  77 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(-1.6 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) -28/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -84.3%(-1.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +3.1%

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth +1.5%
  

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +16.6%

• Energy +14.5%
  

• Marijuana +13.3%

• Gambling +10.1%

• Steel +9.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Healthcare Providers -.1%
  

• Telecom -2.4%
  

• Utilities -2.7%

• Alt Energy -2.8%
  

• REITs -4.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (4)

• AMBC, DXCM, SPB and HAL
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (32)

• AMT, LAD, SUI, FBC, EPAM, TDC, MDRX, GPRE, STZ, NEOG, NRIX, LOVE, NCLH, NUVA, MPW, AORT, VFC, TRUP, OSH, TSLA, DOCU, LUNG, RUN, SMTC, BLNK, ALGT, NVRO, ACCD, GNRC, CVNA, W and ANGO
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Sharply into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.6 +3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.26%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.9 +2.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.31 -.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 +1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.5 +1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +5.6%

• NYSE Arms .93 -28.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 100.6 +2.33%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 403.13 +.64%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 435.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 146.15 +3.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 426.64 -6.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 251.0 basis points +8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 180.65 +1.62%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 314.15 +2.55%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.48 -.33%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points -3.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 47.75 basis points +9.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -61.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  173.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 45.23 -.81%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.13 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.36% unch.
  

• Yield Curve -43.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.55%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 156.20 euros/megawatt-hour -11.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.20 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.9 +1.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.9 +1.8 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.92 -.15:  Growth Rate +15.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 15.5 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.14 -11.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.89% +19.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% unch.: CPI YoY +8.20% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +7.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 62.5%(-7.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 59.1%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 77 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.3%(-.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -356 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +216 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 18.4% of Issues Advancing, 77.9% Declining
• 11 New 52-Week Highs, 237 New Lows
• 21.8%(-10.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 -4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.5 +3.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,362.61 -1.03%
  
• Vix 31.0 +1.5%
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +13.5%
• TRIN/Arms .71 -45.4%