Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.2% 2) Energy +1.7% 3) Semis -.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NFLX, ISRG, PLL, UAL, HWC, FNB and RELL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PLD 2) CLR 3) MULN 4) PACB 5) ISRG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CABA 2) NFLX 3) ISRG 4) ACAN 5) SMGI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 24.5% of Issues Advancing, 72.0% Declining
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 165 New Lows
• 25.3%(-4.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.0 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,132.4 +.08%
  
• Vix 31.0 +1.7%
• Total Put/Call .88 -7.4%
• TRIN/Arms .90 +55.2% 

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• China's Underground Market for Chips Draws Desperate Automakers.
• Japan’s Treasuries Holdings Fall to Three-Year Low as Yen Slides.  
• Stealth Intervention Talk Permeates Market as Yen Approaches 150.
• US Officials Fret Over Russia Oil Cap Failing After OPEC Cut.  
• Asia Set for Mixed Open After US Extends Rebound: Markets Wrap.
• Fertilizer Prices Fall as Gluts Emerge After Farmers Pull Back.
• Earnings Outlooks Are Key to Determining If Stocks Hit Bottom.  
• Bankrupt Crypto Lender Celsius Facing Federal ‘Investigations’.  
• Lockheed Gains Most Since 2020 on Profit Beat, Buyback Plan.
  
• Fed Can’t Pause Rate Hikes With Core Inflation Accelerating, Kashkari Says.  
• Fed’s Bostic Says Slowing Inflation Is Best for Long-Run Employment.
  
• California Home Sales Drop 30% as Higher Rates Hit Costly Market.  
• TC Energy Could Divest Keystone Oil Pipeline, Analysts Say. 
• Stocks Volatility Prompts JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley to Shift Tone.

Wall Street Journal:

• Wall Street Traders or Washington Officials? Sometimes It’s Hard to Tell.
• Fashion Industry Gets Torn by Europe’s Soaring Energy Bills.
• Get Ready for the Big Chill. The price of heating fuel will soar this winter, thanks to climate policies. 
• Democrats Are in Trouble With Hispanics. Trump did better in 2020 than 2016, and polls suggest that trend will continue.
• IRS to Raise Tax Brackets, Standard Deduction by 7%.
• Home Buyers Flock to Florida Cities Devastated by Hurricane Ian.
• Microsoft Lays Off Employees After Slowdown in Earnings Growth.
• Johnson & Johnson Likely to Cut Jobs Despite Higher Sales, Profit.
• French Protests Highlight Pressure on European Leaders From Energy Crisis.

Fox News:

• Air Force warplanes 'identified and intercepted' Russian bombers flying in airspace near US state.
• SAD SANTA:Major retailers already bracing for tsunami of returns.

CNBC.com:

• Rarely-humbled Goldman concedes missteps in plan to take on megabanks in retail finance.
• Adobe stock jumps on estimates for next year as strong dollar cuts into growth.
• Apple stock ticks down on report of cut to iPhone 14 Plus production. 
  

MarketWatch:            

• United Airlines says travel demand is stronger than recession pressures; shares rally. 
  
• Why stock market investors should wait for the 10-year Treasury to ‘blink’.
  
• Remote employees are working less, sleeping and playing more, Fed study finds.
  
• A recession is coming soon, CEOs and economists warn. Here’s why they’re gloomy.  
• Oh my gourd! People pay 14.1% more on average for pumpkin-spice products.   
• Halloween spending expected to increase by $500 million as candy prices soar at the highest rate on record.  
• Get ready for one big impact of inflation that will be felt next year. For most people, it’s unavoidable.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden To Unveil Cunning New Plan To Lower Gas Prices: Drain Even More From The SPR.
• Durham Denied (Again) - Igor Danchenko Not Guilty On All Counts. 
• Luongo: The Fed Is Exposing The Lies Of Two Generations Of People In Power.
• First Images Of Blown Up Nord Stream Reveals 50 Meter Missing Section Of Pipeline.
• Democratic Party Captured By Environmentalists, Aiding Russia & China; Expert Claims.
• "This Is Unsustainable": NYC Homeless Shelter Population Hits Record High.
• Catalog Of Deceit: A List Of JB Pritzker's Falsehoods & Whoppers.
• Twitter Is Fine With Pfizer Propaganda, But Comic Books About The US Border Crisis Are Not Allowed.
• US stocks finished higher but with price action choppy amid earnings and mixed data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Almost All Corporate Executives Believe That Economic Conditions Are About To Get Significantly Worse.
• Boston University Defends Controversial Study On COVID Hybrid Strain With '80 Percent' Mortality Rate in Mice.
• WTI Holds Biden-SPR-Release Losses After API Data Shows Small Crude Draw.
• Equity rebound continues on strong earnings and flat Dollar and yields - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Speaks Out, Says Inmate Tried To 'Murder' Her.
• Netflix Soars After Q3 Results, Subscriber Growth And Forecast All Tops Forecasts.
• Foreign Official Entities Dumped Stocks, TSYs In August As De-Dollarization Accelerates.
• Stocks Rise As Recession Odds Hit 100% For "Strong As Hell" Economy".

Newsmax:   

• FBI Whistleblower: Agency Showing Bias Against Conservatives.
• Rep. Cloud: No Stock Trading by Congress Members.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• HERE WE GO: CDC Will Likely Vote this Week to Add Experimental COVID-19 Vaccines to the Childhood Vaccination Program. 
• Australia Is Now Offering to Pay for Your Funeral if the Forced COVID Jab Kills You.
• BREAKING: IGOR DANCHENKO ACQUITTED ON ALL FOUR COUNTS BY DC JURY – Lied to FBI on Trump-Russia Collusion – Then Later Hired by FBI.
• Mother of George Floyd’s Daughter Sues Kanye West for $250 Million for Saying George Floyd Died from Fentanyl – Causing them ‘Emotional Distress’.
• It’s Beginning: Arizona Ballot Stuffer Caught Covering Up License Plate.
• World Premiere: “The Real Anthony Fauci” Movie Based on Robert Kennedy Jr.’s Blockbuster Book is Now Live – Watch it Free for 10 Days Only.
• John Fetterman’s Wife Demands NBC Apologize for Exposing Her Husband’s Inability to Track a Conversation.
• Bloomberg Reporter Calls Biden Out for Releasing More Oil From Strategic Petroleum Reserve as ‘Ploy’ Ahead of Midterms (VIDEO).
• Democrat-Socialists Rage At Generation X For Supporting GOP By Huge Margin In New Poll.
• Analysts Say Bed, Bath & Beyond Could Go Bankrupt – Remember When They Sided With Leftists By Canceling MyPillow?
  

The Epoch Times: 

• Former Director of Chinese Virology Lab Dies of ‘Sudden Illness’.
• CCP Views US as Enemy, Not Competitor: Former Telecom Executive. US Military Strength Downgraded to Weak: Heritage Foundation Report.
• PREMIERING NOW: Nicolas Chaillan: The CCP Is Using TikTok to Manipulate Americans and Gather Data for AI Weapons.

Twitter: 

• @KariLake - Let's talk about "Election Deniers." I brought receipts. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 880,882 Reports(+5,890 from prior week) Through October 7th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 198.75 -11.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 107.5 -7.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.5 +.02%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 49.0 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.17 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.8 -1.3%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.58%.

• S&P 500 futures +.85%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.25%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABT)/.94
• (ASML)/3.46
• (BMI)/.57
• (BKR)/.25
• (CMA)/2.57
• (MTB)/4.26
• (NDAQ)/.65
• (NTRS)/1.82
• (PG)/1.55
• (TRV)/1.72
• (WGO)/2.71
  

After the Close:

• (AA)/.18
• (CCI)/1.91
• (EFX)/1.63
• (IBM)/1.80
• (KMI)/.29
• (KNX)/1.32
• (LRCX)/9.54
• (LSTR)/2.76
• (LVS)/-.25
• (PPG)/1.66
• (SLG)/1.65
• (STLD)/5.16
• (TSLA)/1.01
• (WDFC)/1.22
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1462K from 1575K in Aug.
• Building Permits for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1530K versus 1517K in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,322,430 barrels versus a +9,879,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,227,710 barrels versus a +2,022,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate Inventories are estimated to fall by -1,493,000 barrels versus a -4,853,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.23% versus a -1.4% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book Release.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, UK CPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the 20Y T-Bond auction could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Less Earnings Outlook Pessimism, Diminished European/Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Industrial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.8 -1.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.9 +.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.70 +.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 52.0 -1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -32.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -5.1%

• NYSE Arms .61 +96.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.6 -3.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 397.93 -2.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 427.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 136.84 -1.7% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 357.5 -3.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 241.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 205.89 -2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 317.0 -2.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.80 -1.0%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 30.25 basis points -9.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -63.5 basis points +5.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  171.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 45.23 +.29%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .88 +3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.45 +.37%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.86% +10.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -43.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 112.2 euros/megawatt-hour -12.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.30 +2.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.5 +5.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.82 -.13:  Growth Rate +15.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 15.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.28 +13.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.81% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 64.0%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 54.1%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 77 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.2%(+.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -86 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/commodity/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives unch. 2) Pharma +.1% 3) Semis +.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EWCZ, AZTA, SPB, GOLF, OMF, DAR, MRNA, HG, RCII, DYN, DICE and ALLY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HAS 2) REM 3) CLR 4) ADT 5) ALLY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SI 2) HAS 3) SFBS 4) GOLF 5) RNG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Defense +3.2% 2) Industrials +2.2% 3) Homebuilders +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVEO, LEGN, KYMR, SILK, AEHR, LMT, AR, VRT, CRM, ATRC, NABL and BAC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) R 2) STT 3) RITM 4) BKR 5) SCO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVEO 2) AKUS 3) LMT 4) NVGS 5) TGT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume