Saturday, March 25, 2023

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (HUM).
  • Had bearish commentary on (SCHW) and (DG).

Fox News:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:      
NewsMax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, March 24, 2023

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 3,955.7 +.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 32,191.7 +.9%
  • NASDAQ 11,787.9 +1.2%
  • Russell 2000 1,726.0 -.13%
  • NYSE FANG+ 5,912.9 +2.5% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 6.08 +1.5%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 132.90 -1.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 39,512.5 +.86%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,372.94 +1.1%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,440.30 +.58%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 759.52 +1.2%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,127.1 +1.14%
  • NYSE Technology 3,037.8 +.93%
  • Transports 13,638.3 -.92%
  • Utilities 902.5 -2.2%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.0 -2.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 38.7 +2.9%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,447.31 +.14%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 923.9 +.11%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 446,019 -.38%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.0 +213.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -460 +13
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.7 +.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 176,219 -14.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,767,660 +.72%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +5.9%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.23 +7.9%
  • ISE Sentiment 81.0 -4.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .97 -47.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 46.6 +12.8%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.84.0 -11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -4.65 -51.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.4 -11.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.18% -19.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.3 -10.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.15 -3.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.8 -.34%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 12,693.0 +.92%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  53.2 +11.3
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.132 Trillion +2.3%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$.699 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 20.9 +8.9%
  • AAII % Bears 48.9 +1.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 257.78 +1.23%
  • Crude Oil 69.23/bbl. +4.2%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 259.34 +4.4%
  • Natural Gas 2.21 -6.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.7%
  • Heating Oil 270.5 +1.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 190.0 (1,000/metric ton) +8.6%
  • Gold 1,976.17 -.2%
  • Silver 23.1 +2.8%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 445.3 +2.8%
  • Copper 406.80 +4.5%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 453.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.3 USD/Metric Tonne -5.9%
  • Lumber  411.0 -9.2%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,508.54 -.83%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 365.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +3.18% -6.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.06 +11.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 227.3 +173.7%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.23 +.41:  Growth Rate +1.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 17.5 unch. 
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.34% -2.0 basis points
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.2 +10.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.6 +4.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.2 -.6 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-25.3 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.5-4.75%, 83.0%(+29.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 17.0%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.0-5.25% on 5/3
  • US Dollar Index 103.12 -.70%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,691.4 +.95%
  • Bitcoin/USD 27,732.7 -.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.79 +.14%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -40.0 +8.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.36% -4.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.697 Trillion +1.1%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.7 +4.5%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.26 +.21%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 189.0 -6.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.7 +19.9%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.47 +14.4%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 252.39 +1.7%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 59.1 -7.1%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.7 +5.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.63%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.6% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +6.3% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +9.5% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Rents YoY 6.15% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23% +12.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 53.5 -6.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 +3.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 +5.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.77 +.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 286.0 +.5
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 449.0 +1.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 117.51 -8.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 497.6 +29.5%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 255.48 -3.4%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 656.0 +22.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .90 +18.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -1.7% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,118.0 -3.9%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 196,250 -.13%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.3 -5.5%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.79% -21.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 221,000 +3.0%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.9% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +129.5% n/a
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $152.8M +1.4%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.44/gallon -.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,484.0 -3.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 977.1 -1.6%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 60.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 46.6 +2.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 226,046 -1.5%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,189,372 -13.0%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +1.0%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Video Gaming +3.8%
  • Electric Vehicles +3.4%
  • Gold & Silver +2.6%
  • Pharma +2.1%
  • Foods +2.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Banks -1.7%
  • Road & Rail -1.7%
  • Utilities -2.3%
  • Airlines -2.4%
  • REITs -2.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)
  • ATVI, HCC, KRC, TALO, WAL, ISRG and ATRC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)
  • HRI, ASAI, CRH, HLT, URI, INCY, CHWY, LPLA, ZNTL, TRUP, BBIO, PDD, PTCT, GTLB and RILY
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Tightening Global Financial Conditions, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.9 +1.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.11%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.2 -.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 -.66%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 +.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.2 -.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 -3.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.01 -10.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.4 +.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 458.1 +2.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 449.0 +9
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.32 +2.8% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 496.6 +1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 145.4 +4.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 255.0 -.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.2%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 53.5 basis points +16.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 -7.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  157.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 656.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.2 +9.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.6 +8.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.2 -.4 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.23 +.03:  Growth Rate +1.7% unch., P/E 17.5 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.34% +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.86 -16.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -40.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.19% -6.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 64.8%(+10.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 58.7%(+10.1 percentage points) chance of 4.50%-4.75%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -275 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +187 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my utility/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -2.3% 2) Semis -2.0% 3) I-Banks -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SHEL, URI, HLT, PHG, AKRO, HRI, IBKR, ZNTL, CHWY, ETNB, TRUP, INCY, PDD, TRMD, PTCT, GTLB and RILY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FRC 2) OZK 3) ARI 4) RF 5) PACW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SCHL 2) OXM 3) HUMA 4) INCY 5) SQ
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Utilities +1.7% 2) Gold & Silver +1.5% 3) Regional Banks +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TALO, ATVI, FHN, HCC, ISRG, AI, RBLX, PRCT and KRC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FRC 2) FHN 3) PACW 4) CMA 5) DPST
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AFYA 2) MITQ 3) RNW 4) CURV 5) DRMA

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (BNTX)/7.75
  • (CCL)/-.60
After the Close: 
  • (PVH)/1.67

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to rise to -10.0 versus -13.5 in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Eurozone Trade Data report, 2Y T-Note auction and the (CIG) investor meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST