Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -1.9% 2) Steel -1.8% 3) Regional Banks -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PYPL, EDR, XENE, SITE, CTLT, LITE, CHH, ZIP, OXY, FHN, STR, HRB, EWCZ, VERX, LBTYK, NNOX, HAIN, HRT, VYGR, PENN, MLCO, PFGC, LBTYA, BE, NYT, LNC, BOWL, RRR, CPNG, SKIN, RDY, TFPM, TTGT, SCCO, IRBT, MASI, EHAB, COHR, RVNC, ASLE, GDS, BROS, SPHR, ABNB, IAS, AMPL, SRAD, AXON, PRAA, CUTR, SILK, AZTA, TWLO, NVEI, MODG, JXN, IEP, RETA, ARQT and PRA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OPEN 2) SRPT 3) EMB 4) ABNB 5) STNE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RETA 2) JXN 3) UWMC 4) AMPL 5) MLCO

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Alt Energy +2.4% 2) Cyber Security +1.2% 3) Semis +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UPST, CELH, LZ, RNG, MBC, CARG, QTWO, IAC, VSH, VVV, PUBM, RIOT, EXAS, WWW, HALO, PETQ, RXST, SKWD, DUOL, CVNA, GH, SYNH, DAR, ZS, AKAM, MSTR, TOST, FCNCA, LTHM, RIVN, ILMN, RBLX, EVRI, AMD, FLYW, MRVI, AFRM, AMRK and APPN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IAU 2) CTIC 3) TOST 4) BEKE 5) ASRT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CTIC 2) UPST 3) CELH 4) LI 5) EXAS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FLWS)/-.36
• (CRL)/2.59
• (DDS)/7.94
• (JD)/3.50
• (DNUT)/.07
• (PKI)/1.02
• (TPR)/.60
• (TNK)/4.40
• (YETI)/.16
  

After the Close: 

• (NWSA)/.04
• (SANM)/1.55
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 245K versus 242K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1820K versus 1805K prior.
• PPI Final Demand MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in March.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in March.
• PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY for April is estimated to rise +3.5% versus a +3.6% gain in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, BofE decision, 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (H) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +11.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.3 +.6
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 40.7% of Issues Advancing, 55.7% Declining
• 46 New 52-Week Highs, 74 New Lows
• 41.4%(+4.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0 -1
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.1 -1.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,423.3 +.80%
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 -31.0%
  
• Vix 17.6 -.9% 
  
• Total Put/Call .90 -1.10%
• TRIN/Arms 1.46 +64.0%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Erdogan Teeters Before a Turkish Vote That’s Got the World Watching. 
• China’s Shift Away From Big Four Auditors Has EY Most Exposed.
• ECB Must Do More to Return Inflation to 2%, Schnabel Says.
• Donald Kohn Says BOE and Fed Suffering Keynesian ‘Group-Think’.
• Asian Stocks Tick Lower Ahead of US Inflation Data: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Three-Day Surge on SPR Refill Plan, Canada Disruption.
• Biden, McCarthy Vow More Debt-Limit Talks as US Default Looms.
• Wall Street On Debt-Ceiling Alert as Key Seven-Day Window Begins.
• Blackstone Alum Hosts Biden in NYC for $25,000-a-Ticket Fundraiser.
• George Santos Faces Criminal Charges by US Justice Department. 
• AI Drug Discovery Is a $50 Billion Opportunity for Big Pharma.
• King Street’s Goldschmid Says Credit Markets Have a Math Problem.
• Here Are 11 Key Takeaways From the Sohn Investment Conference.
• Occidental Buys Back 6.5% of Warren Buffett’s Preferred Stock.
• Goldman Sachs Warns of Stock Volatility as Quant Traders Pile In.

Zero Hedge:

• "We're Back": Tucker Carlson Moves Show To Twitter; Musk Says They Didn't Cut Deal.
• "An Affront To Justice" - Trump To Appeal After Jury Finds Liable For 'Sexual Abuse', Defamation.
• "Passed Its Peak": Nintendo Warns Of Demand Plunge Of Switch Consoles.
• Peter Schiff: The US Is In A Financial Crisis Worse Than '08.
• Americans Suffering Sharply Higher Levels Of Financial Anxiety.
• Tumbling Chinese Commodity Imports Signal Two-Speed Recovery.
• ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead: A Destabilized Pakistan Could Become Far More Dangerous Than Ukraine War.
• Battles Rage Over Biden's Clean Energy Projects As The Size And Cost Jump.
• National Police Association Joins Others In Suing For Nashville Shooter's Manifesto.
• "A Lot More Bodies Coming" - Druckenmiller Warns Of "Hard Landing", Blasts Fed "Free Money" Making People Do "Really Stupid Things".
• US stocks declined ahead of US CPI data and after hawkish central bank rhetoric - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• The Truth About 'Generation Snowflake' Is Even Worse Than We Feared.
• 'Sex Object' CNBC Anchor Hadley Gamble Leaves Network After Sexual Harassment Settlement.
• Italy's Meloni To Pull Trigger On Belt & Road Exit In Major Blow To China.
• WTI Holds Gains Despite API Reporting Biggest Crude Build Since Feb.
• Stocks lower ahead of CPI while debt limit talks remain in limbo - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Chicago Police Advise Business Owners To Install Shatter-Resistant Glass Shields Amid String Of Break-Ins.
• Quinn: Rise To Rebellion - A Fourth Turning Perspective. 
• Bullion & Black Gold Bid; Regional Banks Skid Ahead Of CPI.

Wall Street Journal:

• Decline of the Five-Day Commute Is a Boon to Suburban Retail.
• ChatGPT Is Causing a Stock-Market Ruckus.
• Boeing Wins 737 MAX Jet Order Worth Up to $40 Billion From Ryanair.
• Falling Home Prices Most Widespread in Over a Decade.
• DEI Brings Kafka to My Law School. Ohio Northern University is trying to banish me for lack of ‘collegiality’ but won’t say what I’ve done.
• The Deep State Is All Too Real. Congress and the courts have shirked their duty, letting bureaucrats make and interpret the laws.

CNBC.com:

• Fed’s John Williams says rates could be increased if inflation doesn’t come down.
• Rivian reports a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss, reaffirms EV production target.
• Rocket Lab revenue increases slightly, company adds NASA launch contract.
• The 2023 CNBC Disruptor 50: See the full list of startups taking on the market’s biggest companies.
• These maps show how far China’s freight railways are stretching across Asia.

MarketWatch:

• Stocks may be about to lose the secret to their success in 2023.
• IBM rolls into AI arms race with Watsonx.
• Upstart stock soars 40% after upbeat earnings outlook, funding progress.
• Airbnb stock falls sharply on cautious forecast and as record bookings miss estimates.
• Twilio’s stock tumbles 15% on weaker-than-expected revenue guidance.
• Affirm stock sinks as loss more than triples, bank stress and rising rates spark concerns.

Newsmax:

• GOP: WH Meeting Yielded No Progress on the Debt Ceiling.

Fox News:

• Study finds Biden proposal could kill nearly a million jobs and tank US economic activity.
• Lawmaker wants to ban San Francisco security guards from drawing guns as crime soars.
• Up-and-coming MMA star dies suddenly at 21: 'She had amazing work ethic'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• America Last: Biden Regime to Send Ukraine ANOTHER $1.2 Billion in Military Aid – Including Air Defense Systems and Ammunitions.
• WATCH: Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates RUNS From Questions at Secret Zuckerberg Funded, Soros Tied DC Election Summit – Elon Musk Responds: “They’re Supposed to Be Impartial”.
• HE’S BACK: Tucker Carlson Announces New Show On Twitter – Accuses Fox News of Fraud, Breach of Contract.
• “F*ck You Americans!” – Illegal Aliens Swear at and Insult News Reporters in a Heated Exchange in El Paso, Texas (VIDEO).
• THE NUMBERS ARE IN: Bud Light Hit with Devastating News on April Sales – Trump-Friendly Beer Company Sees Massive Surge.
• Speaker McCarthy Blasts Joe Biden After Fruitless Meeting on Debt Ceiling (VIDEO).
• Elon Musk Warns Users That Zuckerberg’s “WhatsApp” Cannot Be Trusted, Here’s What He Said About The Messaging Platform…
• Former Tucker Carlson Producer Abby Grossberg withdraws Coercion Lawsuit Against Fox News.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Says Joe Biden “Has Been Closely Consulting” with Kamala Harris as 700,000 to 1 Million Illegals Gather to Storm US Border (VIDEO).
• Elon Musk Calls The Allen Texas Mall Shooter Narrative “A Very Bad Psyop”.
• ‘How Does the President Get Away with Saying That He’s Cutting the Deficit’ – CNBC’s Rick Santelli Goes Off on Joe Biden in Signature Rant (VIDEO).
• “I Really Touched the Third Rail on a Mention of Jeffrey Epstein” – Shareholder Peter Flaherty Breaks Silence Following His Arrest After Criticizing Warren Buffett’s Ties with Bill Gates (VIDEO).
  

The Epoch Times:

• Popular Metaverse App Bondee Fades Fast as CCP Ties Are Revealed.
• US Efforts to Crack Down on Fentanyl Trafficking Face Resistance From the CCP.
• ‘Calamitous Collaboration’: Lawmakers Condemn NIH Grant Renewal for Bat Coronavirus Study to Wuhan Lab-Linked EcoHealth.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 957,953 Reports(+2,601 from prior week) Through April 28th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.75 +2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.75 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.4 +.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 -.14%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Tech/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .44%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.2 +.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.3 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.74 -.71%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.3 +2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -18.5%

• NYSE Arms .67 -10.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.08 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 411.80 +.69%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 426.0 +11.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.50 +1.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 387.14 +2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 193.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.6 +1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 253.28 +1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.34%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 15.5 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -3.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 714.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.22% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.8 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.3 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.8 +1.8 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.93 -.04:  Growth Rate +2.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .03 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.35 +20.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 58.5%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.0%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -2 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +62 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long