Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +12.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 5.8 -3.1
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 57.7% of Issues Advancing, 39.1% Declining
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 44.0%(+4.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 +5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.8 +3.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,703.7 -.45%
• 1-Day Vix 12.2 -10.8%
  
• Vix 16.0 -.3% 
  
• Total Put/Call .71 -13.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.11 +15.6%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Japan Inflation Quickens Again, Putting Pressure on BOJ View.
• Biden, G-7 Partners to Focus on China in Hiroshima Gathering.
• Vienna Becomes Epicenter of Europe’s Housing Woes.
• Asian Stocks to Open Mixed on US Rally, China Drag: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Set for Best Week Since Mid-April on US Debt-Deal Optimism.
• McCarthy, Schumer Eye Debt-Limit Votes Ahead of June 1 Deadline.
• TikTok’s Montana Ban Sows Chaos for Creators Who Vow to Quit.
• The Key Points That Could Complicate a Debt-Limit Deal.
• Zero-Day Options Are Reordering the Way the Stock Market Behaves. 
• Exxon Says Reaching Net Zero Global Emissions by 2050 ‘Highly Unlikely’.
• Epic Stock Lull Spurs Volatility Sales Before $1.7 Trillion Test.
• Mortgage Rates in US Resume Climb After Falling for Two Weeks. 
• Wall Street Fears $1 Trillion Aftershock From Debt Deal.
• Fed Officials Consider Skipping a Hike in June — But Don’t Call It a Pause.

Zero Hedge:

• Secretive Bilderberg Gathering Of Global Elites Kicks Off: See Who's Attending & What They're Discussing.
• Fertility App Premom Shared Sensitive User Data With Chinese Firms.
• US Supreme Court Allows Illinois Gun Control Law To Remain In Effect.
• Feds Start Enrolling Volunteers For mRNA Flu Vaccine Trial.
• Disney Abandons Billion-Dollar Florida Development Plan, Shutters 'Galactic Starcruiser' Hotel Amid DeSantis Suit.
• Turley: If Congress Really Wants Reform, Durham Has Given It A Blueprint For How To Do It.
• Gunmaker Heckler & Koch Deletes Woke Tweet Rant After Backlash.
• US stocks extended on gains and the S&P 500 printed a 9-month high on debt ceiling optimism and firm data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Rubio Publishes Vast COVID-19 Report: 'Beijing Hid The Truth'.
• Fed Emergency Bank Bailout Facility Hits Record High; Money Market Inflows Suggest Deposit Run Not Over Yet.
• Dollar and yields soar on strong data and more hawkish Fed Speak ahead of Powell - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Portland Wants To Re-Fund Its Police.
• Tech titans skyrocket: dancing on the edge of overheating.
• "Huge" Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses.
• Hawkish FedSpeak Batters Bonds & Bullion; Tech Melt-Up Accelerates.

Wall Street Journal:

• Pentagon Says Accounting Mistake Leaves U.S. With $3 Billion More in Arms for Ukraine.
• China Puts Spymaster in Charge of U.S. Corporate Crackdown.
• Home Prices Post Largest Annual Drop in Over 11 Years.
• Lazard CEO Ken Jacobs Prepares to Step Down.
• Fed Officials Face ‘Loathsome’ Playbook for Debt-Ceiling Standoff.
• Virtual Fences for Cattle Find a Home on the Range.
• Apple Restricts Employee Use of ChatGPT, Wary of Leaks.

CNBC.com:

• Meta pulls the curtain back on its A.I. chips for the first time.
• FDA advisors recommend Pfizer’s RSV vaccine for infants but raise safety concerns.
• Sam Zell, billionaire real estate investor, dies.

MarketWatch: 

• Debt on trophy office buildings is starting to buckle as loans come due.
• These banks have high exposure to loans secured by office properties — here’s how their stocks have performed.
• Fed’s Barr warns of rising risk around commercial real estate at regional banks.
• Here’s why Treasury bills are seen as reasonable alternative to stocks for first time in 14 years.

Newsmax:

• Dershowitz: 'Probable Cause' for FBI Reform 'Very Clear'.
• Sen. Johnson: Durham Exposes Long Line of Corruption.
• GOP Is Upbeat on Debt Deal, but Budget Hawks Are Digging In.
• Whistleblower Warns: 'The FBI Will Crush You'.

 Fox News:

• 210 Democrats endorse plan to sidestep House Republicans in debt limit fight.
• Texas gov sends first bus of migrants to major blue city as illegals overwhelm border.
• Adidas swimsuit ad draws backlash for 'erasing women': 'This seems coordinated'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• NIH Finally Cuts Off Funding to Wuhan Biolab But 27 Chinese Labs Still Make the List,
• FBI Revokes Security Clearances of Whistleblowers Before Congressional Testimony – But 51 Signatories of Bogus Hunter Biden Laptop Letter Still Have There’s,
• Former FBI Special Agent Left Homeless After Blowing the Whistle on FBI and DOJ – Gives Powerful Testimony on Abuses of Power and Weaponization [VIDEO],
• Is The DOJ Destroying Presumption of Innocence Through Wengui Guo/Miles Guo, Others?
• “It’s Ridiculous!” – AP Reporter Blasts State Department After They Added MANDATORY Pronouns Onto “From” Line on State Dept Emails (VIDEO),
• Are They Lying to You? Dr. McCullough Sounds the Alarms on mRNA in Your Food.
• Feinstein Health Much Worse Than Previously Disclosed – Several Complications, Facial Paralysis, Swelling of the Brain.
• Democrat Stacey Plaskett Defends FBI for Targeting “White Christian Males” and for ‘Threatening Violence’ at Whistleblower Hearing.
• Get Woke, Go Broke: Illinois/Wisconsin Grocery Chain Practically Giving Away Budweiser and Bud Light!.
• BREAKING: Washington FBI Field Office Confirms Undercover Officers, Confidential Informants, and FBI Assets were Embedded in the Crowds at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6th (VIDEO).
• Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 Shot No Longer Available in the U.S. – Remaining Doses to be Disposed,
  

The Epoch Times:

• Bipartisan Bill Aims to Block Chinese Purchase of US Farmland.
• Senior Official at CCP’s State-Owned Assets Watchdog Under Probe.

Twitter: 

• @RastaRafi03 - A brief explanation of how digital ID, if allowed to be implemented, will give authorities the power to exert absolute control over every aspect of your life. (video)
• @DisruptorStocks - Are we done with Revenge Travel? (graph)
• @KLVeritas - WHO “One Health Agenda” threatens national sovereignty, free speech and is pushing towards centralized, totalitarian and undemocratic top-down control over people and their health. It’s time for US and other countries to #ExitTheWHO before treaties/IHR are passed and signed.
• @backtolife_2023 - The true impact of winter on electric car performance revealed: New test shows plummeting temperatures can slash battery range by up to a THIRD. (graph)
• @data_depot - The % of Americans saying they have "a great deal of trust in the scientific community" dropped significantly b/w 2021 & 2022 (from 48% to 38%). Importantly, it was down among all partisan groups. (graph)
• @songpinganq - Chinese facial recognition police robot have been rolling streets for years. But it's Chinese 'Judge Dredd' scared people to death last 3 years, because... They can send you off to a quarantine camp immediately if you have a fever. (video)
• @FreyjaTarte - Here is Adam Schiff repeatedly lying to the American people about Russian collusion. (video)
• @GameofTrades - Small business optimism has been on a sharp decline. It has reached levels only seen 3 other times since the 1970s. Each one led to a recession. (graph)
• @bennyjohnson - Greg Gutfeld finally SNAPS, sends Fox Execs into PANIC MODE after destroying every approved narrative about Regime's election interference against Trump. (video)
• @Deltaone - OPENAI CEO SAM ALTMAN SAYS AI AND ELECTIONS ARE A “SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CONCERN” AND “SOME REGULATION WOULD BE QUITE WISE”.
• @DC_Draino - Nothing to see here... Just video of a van dropping off 100s of thousands of ballots around 3 AM in Detroit w/o any GOP monitors. Biden’s Michigan votes would spike ahead of Trump a couple hrs later. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 959,637 Reports(+1,684 from prior week) Through May 5th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.75 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 69.75 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.1 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.8 +2.2%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .07 -6.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.41%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Debt Ceiling Agreement Hopes, FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Technical Buying, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .79%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.9 +3.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.3 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 +1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 29.5 -3.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 +19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -26.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +79.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.87 -1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 411.60 -.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 447.0 +10.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.8 -3.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 339.70 -6.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.2 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 257.35 -.24%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.8 -.62%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 714.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.1 -.49%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.24% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.8 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.4 -.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.0 +1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(467 of 500 reporting) -3.2% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.31 +.05:  Growth Rate +2.3% unch., P/E 18.3 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 199.61 +.25: Growth Rate +28.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +1.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .16 +7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.48 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -61.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 61.4%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 49.8%(+6.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +206 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -1.7% 2) Alt Energy -1.4% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ETSY, AMR, NARI, JD, RGNX, OR, GOLD, TGT, ICPT, NEM, BIDU, BABA, PSFE, USM, HCC, DRD, PAAS, NTNX, DQ, NGG, BTU, NGVT, AGCO, KD, ATHM, BEKE, FUTU, PDD, VIPS, STNE, MNRO, BOOT, GOOS, LSPD and BOWL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GRAB 2) BKLN 3) KNX 4) MCHP 5) NLY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NSTG 2) GRAB 3) ICPT 4) TGT 5) WE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Disk Drives +4.2% 2) Semis +2.1% 3) Computer Hardware +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SCPL, MSGE, UPST, TTWO, PLTR, BLBD, NFLX, BBWI, RMBS, SNPS, PRX, CPRT, SMCI, MU, LYTS, DT, DKNG and SHLS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GRPN 2) ATUS 3) RMBS 4) HZNP 5) TTWO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TTWO 2) PACW 3) SNPS 4) PUMP 5) MU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CTLT)/.32
• (DE)/8.47
• (FL)/.78
• (RBC)/1.86
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• Bloomberg May US Economic Survey.

Upcoming Splits

• (CHDN) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking and the Eurozone PPI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST