Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -2.4% 2) Alt Energy -2.1% 3) Telecom -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LBTYA, CDAY, ABR, GSK, ZI, LTHM, VC, AEIS, MODG, ALGM, GT, CLH, LSCC, ENPH, OI, EQR, CTLT, TECH, FYBR, HUM, ALB, ADP, ARRY, PWR, EQH, SYNA, DD, PCTY, DGII, BMBL, SKY, AGL, GOOS, SLAB, DIN, DBRG, VFC, XPOF, UNM, PYCR, FDP, SITE, SSRM, TRMB, STVN, EXTR, EL, MTCH, YUMC, MTZ and PAYC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XME 2) SABR 3) GT 4) SPLK 5) EL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WE 2) PAYC 3) MTZ 4) YUMC 5) EL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +1.7% 2) Steel +.9% 3) Computer Hardware +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TGTX, SMG, CHEF, FTDR, GNRC, SRPT, AIZ, PSN, AMD, APO, BLDR, GVA, ESTA, W, MTH, LPX and ANET
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HR 2) BALY 3) WE 4) IBRX 5) MTCH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MCY 2) TGTX 3) TT 4) GRMN 5) ESAB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ADT)/.03
• (ATI)/.53
• (AEP)/1.70
• (APTV)/1.23
• (BAXC)/.67
• (BWA)/.94
• (CARS)/.35
• (COP)/2.10
• (CROX)/3.10
• (CMI)/4.70
• (DUK)/1.92
• (LLY)/-.20
• (EXC)/.67
• (FSS)/.66
• (FOXA)/1.00
• (H)/.59
• (ICE)/1.39
• (IRM)/.99
• (ITRI)/.50
• (ITT)/1.27
• (JLL)/2.01
• (MAR)/2.10
• (MRNA)/-1.93
• (TAP)/1.56
• (MUR)/1.42
• (PZZA)/.57
• (PHI)/5.32
• (PTON)/-.34
• (PENN)/.37
• (PBI)/-.02
• (PWR)/2.11
• (REGN)/10.73
• (ROK)/3.47
• (SEE)/.63
• (SHAK)/.09
• (SHOP)/.15
• (SWI)/.18
• (SO)/1.32
• (SBUX)/.97
• (STRA)/.81
• (TPX)/.81
• (CI)/6.68
• (WEN)/.25
• (ZTS)/1.36
  

After the Close: 

• (AAPL)/1.39
• (BILL)/.50
• (SQ)/.47
• (BKNG)/67.78
• (BOOT)/.88
• (CHUY)/.36
• (CRUS)/1.54
• (NET)/.10
• (COIN)/-.55
• (ED)/1.61
• (DKNG)/-.69
• (DBX)/.49
• (LOCO)/.19
• (EOG)/2.97
• (EXPE)/5.00
• (FTNT)/.36
• (PODD)/.40
• (LYV)/1.26
• (MNST)/.40
• (PLTR)/.06
• (PXD)/5.58
• (RMAX)/.36
• (RDFN)/-.23
• (SWKS)/2.10
• (SYK)/2.43
• (OLED)/1.01
• (YELP)/.34
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Oct.
  

8:30 am EST

• 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +4.3% versus a +3.5% gain in 2Q.
• 3Q Unit Labor Costs is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +2.2% gain in 2Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated at 210K versus 210K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1800K versus 1790K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Sept. is estimated to rise +2.3% versus a +1.2% gain in Aug.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for September is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.4% gain in Aug.
• Durable Goods Orders revisions for Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Balance Sheet report, weekly EIA nat gas inventory report, (SBUX) reinvention update, (STZ) investor day, (TPR) annual meeting and the (COTY) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.5 -.3
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 59.8% of Issues Advancing, 38.2% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 99 New Lows
• 27.5%(+1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.6 +1.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,991.4 +.54%
  
• 1-Day Vix 17.5 -3.7%
  
• Vix 17.5 -3.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -19.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.55 +61.5%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Israel’s Step-by-Step Gaza Offensive Risks Longer Deadly War.
• Israel Latest: Blinken Making Another Visit to the Middle East.
• China Vows Enduring Local Debt Cleanup at Key Policy Meeting. 
• China Stocks See Record Monthly Streak of Foreign Fund Exodus. 
• Japan Ramps Up Yen Intervention Warning After BOJ-Fueled Selloff.
• Yen Rises on FX Warning; Asia Stocks to Open Mixed: Markets Wrap.
• Powell Signals Fed to Stay on Hold and Keep Future Hike on Table.
• Fed’s ‘Hawkish Pause’ to Keep Option to Hike.
• What Fed Officials Are Saying About Rising Bond Yields.
• SBF’s Evasiveness Undermines His Case on Cusp of Final Arguments.
• Druckenmiller Says He Has ‘Massive’ Bullish Bets on 2-Year Notes. 
• Zillow Plunges After Jury Finds Realtors Colluded to Maintain High Commissions.
• These Are the Charts That Scare Wall Street This Halloween.
• US Consumer Confidence Drops to a Five-Month Low on Inflation.

Zero Hedge:

• "The Bellwether Has Sounded": Musk Says "Great Wakening From Woke Has Happened" After Southpark Nails Coffin.
• "Pharmageddon" Strikes US Drugstores As 5,000 Workers Walk Off Job.
• Time Magazine's Stunning Reversal: Zelensky 'Deludes' Himself Into Thinking Ukraine Can Win.
• RFK Jr. Renews Plea For Secret Service Protection After Second Stalker Arrest.
• "I Pray To God This Isn't World War III".
• US Crude Production Breaks Records As Shale Drives All Growth In Global Oil Supply Over Past Decade.
• CA Funding LGBTQ+ Group Fighting Parental Notification.
• Real Estate Brokerages Zillow, RedFin Tumble After Jury Finds Realtors Conspired To Keep Commissions High.
• TME Daily: In what macro backdrop will stocks work? 
• Bachelors Of Advocacy: The Rise Of Activism Over Academics In US Higher Education.
• Reports Say China Scrubbed Israel From Online Maps.
• US stocks gained and yields climbed into month-end and on the eve of the FOMC - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Sen. Josh Hawley To Introduce Bill Reversing Citizens United.
• Joe Rogan Shoots Arrow At Cybertruck's Stainless Steel Exoskeleton.
• GOP Governors Lean On NCAA To Keep 'Biological Men' Out Of Women’s Sports.
• WTI Holds Near 2-Month Lows AfterAPI Reports Small Crude Build, Product Draw.
• Stocks, yields, and Dollar firm into month-end and FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Rockwell: Keep Us Out Of War!
• Industrial CMBS Delinquency Soars As 'Deep Freeze' Hits CRE Market.
• Watch: Reporter Exposes White House Double Standards On "Extremists".
• Stocks Spooked For 3rd Straight Month As WW3 Fears Spark Surge In USD, Gold, & Crypto (Not Oil).
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Hamas Commander Killed in Airstrike, Israel Says.
• Jury Finds Realtors Conspired to Keep Commissions High.
• This Year’s Hottest Investment Could End Up Costing You.
• Prepare for an Iranian Escalation. Tehran can’t sit back and watch Israel crush Hamas. Absent serious deterrence, it will open a second front. 
• Middle East War Becomes a European Crisis. The failure to assimilate immigrants and control borders brings violence and chaos to the streets.
• WeWork Plans to File for Bankruptcy.
• What Makes This Market Correction So Confusing.
• The Money Has Stopped Flowing in Commercial Real Estate.

CNBC.com:

• Here’s everything to expect from the Fed’s policy announcement Wednesday.
• JetBlue sinks to 12-year low as airline forecasts more losses, Spirit antitrust trial begins.
• Before the Fed decision, all eyes will be on this big Treasury debt announcement Wednesday.

MarketWatch.com:

• U.S. fiscal deficit a ‘more serious problem than ever before,’ says Larry Summers.
• Yum China stock drops 9% after KFC operator sees ‘softening’ demand.
• AI could spark the next financial crisis, SEC Chair Gary Gensler says.
• AMD’s revenue outlook comes in light, but company gives a rosy AI forecast.
• Paycom’s stock plunges 30% as payroll company whiffs on earnings outlook.
• Big 5 Sporting Goods stock slides after forecast for a Q4 loss, same-store sales decline.
• A Missouri jury goes after the real-estate industry’s commission structure. Here’s what that could mean for homeowners.
• Opinion: The Fed must push the economy into recession or inflation won’t get back to 2%.

Newsmax:

• Yemen's Houthis Join Iran-Backed 'Axis of Resistance'.
• US Mideast Troops Targeted for 23rd Time in 2 Weeks.
• US to Send 300 Additional Troops to Middle East.
• FBI's Wray: Hamas Biggest US Terror Threat Since ISIS.

 Fox News:

• Senior UN official takes direct aim at the United States and Israel on his way out the door.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• World War III Watch: Yemen Officially Declares War on Israel, Launches Large-Scale Ballistic and Drone Strikes.
• Iran to Head UN Human Rights Forum Weeks After Their Proxy Group Slaughters 1,400 Jews and Where Women are Beaten Bloody for Not Wearing Hijab.
• SHOCK VIDEO: Professional Hockey Player SLASHES His Opponent’s Neck with His Skate, Killing Him – Footage Calls Corporate Media’s “Freak Accident” Narrative into Question as Police Investigate Incident.
• “The White House Admitted Hamas Is Holding Nearly 500 Americans Hostage in Gaza”: Sen. Marsha Blackburn Calls Out Biden and Jake Sullivan.
• Sen. Josh Hawley Lashes Out at Alejandro Mayorkas During Heated Exchange in Senate Hearing Over DHS Employee’s Controversial Post on Jewish Genocide (VIDEO).
• Human Rights Leaders Hit Newsom Over China Trip.
• ‘Person of Interest’ in Custody in Cornell University Death Threats Against Jewish Students: Gov. Hochul.
• FBI Director Chris Wray Issues Warning that Hamas and Terrorist Organizations May “Conduct Attacks Here on Our Own Soil” – Something He Missed while Targeting Trump Supporters.
• Racist Jail Guards Spin Illegal Covid Torture In DC Gulag: ‘You Tested Positive…You’re Not Going To Court,’ ‘Only J6ers Are Forced To Wear Masks’.
• Half a Million Illegals Expected Each Month – Another 6 Million Invaders by Election Day – Steve Bannon Responds in Epic Rant.
• Netanyahu Sets Record Straight – Accuses Top Generals of Not Warning Him about Hamas Invasion and Planned Attack. 
• Wisconsin Is Working to Fix the 2020 Election Fraud to Avoid a Repeat in 2024.
• WHAT ARE THEY HIDING? FDA WARNING: 26 Eye Drop Products at Multiple Major Retailers Including Target Could Cause BLINDNESS – Were Manufactured in Unknown “Insanitary” Facility.

The Epoch Times:

• 1st US AI Executive Order Not Enough to Compete With China: Industry Leaders, Lawmakers.
• Regulator to Probe Chinese Firm's Covert Attempt to Control Rare Earth Miner.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 987,217 Reports(+1,799 from prior week) Through September 22nd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.5 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 80.75 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 122.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.53%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.27 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.2 +%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.11 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 +.64%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%.

• S&P 500 futures -.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.31%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Oil Decline, Month-End Short-Covering, Defense/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.4 -7.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74% -8.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.6 +.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 170.9 +1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.17 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.2 -6.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +12.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -4.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 +32.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.08 -2.21%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 358.8 -2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367 +2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.8 -2.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 287.79 -1.74%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.9 -.33%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.02 -1.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 137.75 -3.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.60 -.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 17.5 basis points -2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 183.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 921.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 96.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.49%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.0 euros/megawatt-hour-9.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.4 +2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.5 -3.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.3 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(281 of 500 reporting) +2.5% -3.2 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.54 unch.:  Growth Rate +9.4% unch., P/E 17.3 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +51.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.65 +.52: Growth Rate +60.9% +.4 percentage point, P/E 26.4 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.14 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• US Yield Curve -19.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.26% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% unch.: CPI YoY +3.28% -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 68.9%(-5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 60.6%(-6.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +461 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +31 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/transport/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long