Friday, November 03, 2023

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Epoch Times:

OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,370.4 +6.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 34,096.8 +5.2%
  • NASDAQ 13,490.1 +6.8%
  • Russell 2000 1,768.4 +8.1%
  • NYSE FANG+ 7,655.5 +6.9% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 31.21 +8.5%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 133.0 +13.1%
  • Wilshire 5000 43,403.3 +6.4%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,760.30 +6.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,500.3 +5.9%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 728.7 +3.5%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,253.54 +2.2%
  • NYSE Technology 3,730.9 +8.0%
  • Transports 14,524.2 +7.3%
  • Utilities 864.07 +6.6%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 83.64 +3.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 38.43 +4.9%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 186.46 -1.22%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 104.81 +.31%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 450,504 +1.3%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.1 +.4
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -181 +1,015
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -38.2 -2.4%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 300,765 -1.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,628,044 -1.6%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -26.8%
  • OEX Put/Call .97 +12.6%
  • ISE Sentiment 109.0 +31.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.10 -25.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.9 +4.7%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.05 +25.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .66 +77.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.2 -27.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .64% -66.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 25.6 -25.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.59 -3.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.8 -5.6%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 11,696.53 +.46%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  29.2 +4.4
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.695 Trillion +1.1%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$3.725 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 24.3 -17.1%
  • AAII % Bears 50.3 +16.4%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 282.25 -1.0%
  • Crude Oil 81.01/bbl. -5.2%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 220.49 -4.1%
  • Natural Gas 3.49 +11.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.1 euros/megawatt-hour -5.8%
  • Heating Oil 292.4 -3.8% 
  • Newcastle Coal 134.9 (1,000/metric ton) -8.1%
  • Gold 1,994.86 -.60%
  • Silver 23.22 +.41%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 404.86 -.01%
  • Copper 368.1 +1.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 372.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 123.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.4%
  • CME Lumber  525.0 +6.7%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,603.11 +.80%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 345.0 USD/Short Ton -.72%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q Forecast +1.24% -1.02 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.23 +12.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 54.3 -7.8%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(404 of 500 reporting) +2.2% -3.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.56 +.41:  Growth Rate +8.9% -.3 percentage point, P/E 18.0 +.8
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.20% +9.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% -13.5 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.42 +3.55: Growth Rate +61.3% +2.1 percentage points, P/E 27.5 +1.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.2 -12.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.9 -3.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.3 -2.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply .5%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 99.5%(+20.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(-19.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 12/13
  • US Dollar Index 105.03 -1.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,677.32 +.41%
  • Bitcoin/USD 34,563.2 -.12%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 171.18 +1.5%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -27.75 -11.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.56% -29.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.831 Trillion -.53% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.128 Billion +8.2%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.9 +1.9%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 198.34 -9.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 -10.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.61 +.79%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 74.32 -11.3%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 162.44 -13.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 142.57 -1.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.72 -9.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.71 -.2%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 68.36 -.96%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.2% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.7% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.7% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% unch.: CPI YoY +3.28% -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38% -5.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 24.5 +4.5 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.25 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 +5.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.19 -13.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 171.0 -11.7
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 391.0 +45.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 92.07 -9.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 260.74 -11.5%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 206.32 -13.4%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 -17.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 923.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .97 +4.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.6% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,218.3 +.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 2100,000 +.96%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.3 -.64%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.94% -10.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 161,800 -2.06%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.7% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% unch.
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $131.5M -.46%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.44/gallon -.08/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,385.0 -11.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 827.84 +2.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 +25.0%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 35.5 -8.4%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 271,814 +.27%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,396,776 +18.9%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +8.6%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +5.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Homebuilding +15.6%
  • Regional Banks +12.8%
  • Gambling +12.0%
  • Banks +11.7%
  • AI/Robotics +9.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Electric Vehicles +2.3%
  • Gold & Silver +2.0%
  • Energy +1.7%
  • Networking +1.3%
  • Shipping +.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (44)
  • UDMY, BAND, EXPE, DOCN, IAS, KYMR, TRUP, DKNG, IT, EVH, PARA, FIVN, FIVN, NET, LOPE, ACLX, QLYS, SQ, FLNC, AMRC, IEP, LMND, CVNA, TXG, TGTX, NTLA, CSTL, BOOT, ROKU, CUBI, MIRM, ENV, ALPN, B, BURL, IQV, OLED, LYV, DCPH, HGV, ALGN, ALKT and DRS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)
  • HQY, BAP, APPN, HLF, NARI, OHI, CHD, AMN, PYCR, PRDO, SG, FTNT, PCTY, AGL and BILL
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Gambling/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.4 -2.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .48% -30.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.7 -1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 171.2 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.82 -.64%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.8 -.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +6.0
  • Total Put/Call .88 -9.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 +28.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.54 -2.96%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 325.70 -1.56%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 391 -18
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.70 -2.1% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 258.66 -2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.3 -1.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.80 -2.0%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 142.57 +2.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.82 +.45%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.5 basis points +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 +2.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 923.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 97.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.75 +.64%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 123.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.1 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.2 -5.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.9 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.3 +.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(404 of 500 reporting) +2.2% +.5 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.56 +.06:  Growth Rate +8.9% -.6 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.20% +3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% -13.5 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.42 +.13: Growth Rate +61.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.5 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.07 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .66 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -28.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +1.24% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% unch.: CPI YoY +3.28% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 89.4%(+18.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 67.3%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +830 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +64 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/transport/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AMG)/3.74
  • (CEG)/1.48
  • (DISH)/.11
  • (HGV)/.97
  • (THS)/.50
After the Close: 
  • (AAON)/.55
  • (ADTN)/-.02
  • (CE)/2.23
  • (COHR)/.12
  • (FANG)/5.01
  • (FN)/1.85
  • (GT)/.19
  • (MYGN)/-.08
  • (NXPI)3/62
  • (RNG)/.75
  • (SANM)/1.53
  • (TRIP)/.47
  • (VECO)/.37
  • (VRTX)/3.92
Economic Releases
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, 3/6 Month T-Bill auctions, Loan Officer Survey, CB Employment Trends Index for Oct. and the Baird Industrial Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +34.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.5 -.6
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 83.5% of Issues Advancing, 15.4% Declining
  • 62 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
  • 37.0%(+13.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 +6.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.6 -1.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,952.6 -.61%
  • 1-Day Vix 12.4 -19.0%
  • Vix 15.5 -.7%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -11.3%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.06 +30.9%