Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (HSIC)/1.32
• (TSEM)/.47
• (TSN)/.29
  

After the Close: 

• (FSR)/-.23

Economic Releases

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations Index for Oct.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Oct. is estimated at -$65.0B versus -$171.0B in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, OPEC Monthly report, Morgan Stanley Materials Conference, Stephens Investment Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, Stifel Healthcare Conference, RBC Capital Markets Tech/Internet/Media/Telecom Conference and the American College of Rheumatology Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 -.6
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 57.5% of Issues Advancing, 39.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.48 +27.6% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$121.7M
  
• 25 New 52-Week Highs, 89 New Lows
• 32.3%(+2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0 -4.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.9 +4.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,710.1 +.64%
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.0 -25.2%
  
• Vix 14.6 -4.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -14.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.5 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 73.25 +2.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 126.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.5 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.5 +5.1%
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .11 -6.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.6 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.80%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by tech and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish FOMC Commentary, Surging Long-Term Rates, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Financial/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.0 +3.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .73% -2.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.7 -.25%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.6 -.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.7 -1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.3 +3.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +4.0
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -16.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 -29.0% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$1.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.36 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 346.09 -.37%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 368 -8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.2 -.59% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 266.3 +.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.1 +.79%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 215.46 +2.21%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 121.66 -.98%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 171.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 909.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 99.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.50 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.1 euros/megawatt-hour +5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.6 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.9 +.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.5 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +2.7% +.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.80 -.04:  Growth Rate +8.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.3 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.74 -.10: Growth Rate +62.1% unch., P/E 28.8 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .17 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .24 -57.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -39.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.06% -3.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% unch.: CPI YoY +3.28% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 74.9%(-8.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 66.7%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -6 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.5% 2) Pharma -2.1% 3) Airlines -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SWAV, LI, LZ, LYFT, TOST, ABBV, WIX, EWCZ, LMND, FVRR, FLYW, WRBY, ESTA, HUBS, JAZZ, CCCS, SONY, DNUT, MYGN, NEP, DGII, EXPI, BILL, BDX, SHLS, DIOD, G, NTLA, VEEV, ASLE, MODG, TH, TTEC and AMLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NTR 2) URNM 3) BB 4) APP 5) BILL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ATRA 2) EVA 3) INSE 4) PCT 5) MODG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +2.3% 2) Disk Drives +2.1% 3) Computer Hardware +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• METC, PUBM, RAMP, VERX, ALTG, DUOL, AFRM, LMB, CYRX, NTRA, BE, AMPH, SUPN, JXN, AMBC, TTGT, VSAT, NOMD, TDG, GNK, DIS, ACIW, VVV, EYE, MSTR, MATV, STNG, SU, CECO, RCI, PYCR, OR, NFE, MU, CERT, CNM, TRMD, SPR, APGE, PARA and RIOT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APP 2) UMC 3) ILMN 4) COMM 5) BILL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AFRM 2) RAMP 3) DUOL 4) MARA 5) JXN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume