Monday, November 27, 2023

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -2.9% 2) Road & Rail -1.7% 3) Electric Vehicles -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • OLMA, RILY, CHWY and IRBT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IRBT 2) XENE 3) UNP 4) FTCH 5) PATH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AXLA 2) LEV 3) LCID 4) AMC 5) FNF
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +2.0% 2) Disk Drives +.8% 3) REITs +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • XENE, GGAL, LASR, SYM, AFRM, BMA, ROKU, EH, ARVN, ARCT, AAOI, CRS, HSAI, SHOP, SEMR, CCI, COCO, SA, COIN, LAZ, IP and AGI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VOD 2) IRBT 3) XENE 4) PDD 5) IOT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ASST 2) AFRM 3) SHOP 4) CUEN 5) CAPT

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BMO)/2.09
  • (BNS)/1.21
After the Close: 
  • (CRWD)/.74
  • (HPE)/.50
  • (INTU)/1.98
  • (LESL)/.16
  • (NTAP)/1.39
  • (SPLK)/1.15
  • (WDAY)/1.41
Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Sept. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.01% gain in Aug.

10:00 am EST

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 101.0 versus 102.6 in Oct.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 1.0 versus 3.0 in Oct.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Nov.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, Wells Fargo TMT Conference, Citi Basic Materials Conference, UBS Industrials Summit, UBS Tech Conference, Evercore ISI Healthcare Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference and the (AVB) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -15.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 +.9
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 42.2% of Issues Advancing, 55.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.25 +45.4% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$168.7M
  • 70 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
  • 45.%(-1.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.7 -2.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,696.3 -.25%
  • 1-Day Vix 7.2 -18.4%
  • Vix 12.8 +2.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -9.8%

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Monday Watch

Night Trading

  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 60.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 132.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.8 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.0 +3.9%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.0 +1.1%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.25 -3.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 58.25 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 133.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.8 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.0 +3.4%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 -5.0 basis points
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.18%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.