Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Loose US Financial Conditions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.6 -3.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .55% +54.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.7 +3.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.25 +.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.92 -.25%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.4 -2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -14.0
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -10.4%

• NYSE Arms .66 -40.5% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$30.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.9 -1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 356.17 -.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 377 -5.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.79 -.49% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 221.90 -4.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.92 +.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 185.45 +.02%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 109.38 -3.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.5 -.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 25.25 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 149.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 952.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 83.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.54 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 134.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.6 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.3 +8.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.0 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.2 +.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +4.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.35 -.08:  Growth Rate +9.4% -10.0 basis points, P/E 18.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +47.7% -2.9 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 285.80 +.29: Growth Rate +34.0% -.3 percentage point, P/E 28.9 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 +8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .32 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -48.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +1.25% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 57.5% -.3 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.46% unch.: CPI YoY +3.04% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 94.4%(+10.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 53.5%(+18.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +277 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -62 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.5% 2) Gold & Silver -1.4% 3) Digital Health -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GTES, CIEN, SWBI, BMEA, MDGL, XPOF, RH, NOVA, MDRX and HCP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FNGS 2) HES 3) HCP 4) SPWR 5) CRSP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JOUT 2) CDMO 3) RH 4) CMTL 5) AGRO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +2.3% 2) Computer Hardware +1.8% 3) Banks +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MBI, ALXO, PARA, SAVA, NETI, ARVN, AMBC, AAOI, AX, CLSK, PUBM, AI, SCCO, RIOT, LULU, ALLE, MARA, SRRK, VKTX, IMCR, FCX, DOCU, UPST, CVNA, DAVA, AGO, TREE, ICVX, INSP, AFRM, CARR, AVDL and QNST
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HCP 2) DOCU 3) EDR 4) LULU 5) FXY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MBI 2) ALXO 3) VIRC 4) ARVN 5) PARA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (CASY)/3.80
• (ORCL)/1.33
  

Economic Releases

11:00 am EST

• NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 3Y T-Note auction, 10Y T-Bond auction, CB Employment Trends Index for Nov., (BDX) business update call, (DPZ) investor meeting, (AFRM) investor meeting, American Society of Hematology Meeting, Gartner Infra/Operations/Cloud Strategies Conference and the Citadel Investor Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.7 unch.
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 44.5% of Issues Advancing, 52.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .65 -41.4% 
• Non-Block Money Flow -$74.8M
  
• 79 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 53.5%(+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +1.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.1 +2.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,494.8 -.06%
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.9 -37.4%
  
• Vix 12.8 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 -10.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.75 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 134.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.6 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.8 +3.3%.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 +3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.6 +.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.