Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

Newsmax:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 -2.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.75 -2.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 134.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.5 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.5 +1.5%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 -2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 +.03%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Reversal Lower, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.9 -6.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .51% +32.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.3 -2.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.5 -.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.81 -.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 -3.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 152.0 +12.0
  • Total Put/Call .93 -2.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.55 +74.2% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$74.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 -1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 366.67 +1.6%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 370 +9.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.87 +.22% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 212.69 -.19%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.4 -1.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 184.0 -.23%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 114.61 +.07%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.55 -.08%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.75 basis points unch.
  • TED Spread 26.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 962.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 82.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.5 -.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 134.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.0 -1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.8 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +2.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +13.1% +2.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.94 +.06:  Growth Rate +11.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.09% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 285.80 +7.10: Growth Rate +37.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.5 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .34 unch.
  • US Yield Curve -52.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +1.25% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 54.5% +2.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.43% -3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.38% +34.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 94.4%(-3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 57.2%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small;-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Alt Energy -2.7% 3) Energy -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • KNTK, OXY, SNCY, JCI, ACLX, SBOW and ORCL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) INVZ 2) VTNR 3) TV 4) MBI 5) NTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ACHV 2) FTCH 3) SNCY 4) LCID 5) GO
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Biotech +1.3% 2) Cyber Security +1.2% 3) Medical Equipment +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ICVX, BLBD, CAVA, INCY, MSS, PERI, SONO, OKTA, IMCR, ITCI, PHR, CABA, KROS, ALK, EDU, KRYS, BMEA, S, OLMA, IMVT, SWTX, INSP, BYND, IMCR, LIN, DUOL, AVGO, DOCU, AB, HOLI, ZG, SGEN, GIL and SRRK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TRIP 2) MCHI 3) EOSE 4) ORCL 5) WKHS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BLBD 2) ICVX 3) ABL 4) BRP 5) TARO

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABM)/.92
  • (CGNT)/.01
  • (PLAB)/.53
  • (REVG)/.34
After the Close: 
  • (ADBE)/4.13
  • (NDSN)/2.40
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Nov. is estimated unch. versus a -.5% decline in Oct.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Oct.

2:00 pm EST

  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 5.25%-5.5%.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, OPEC monthly report, (PLD) investor meeting, (VRNT) investor day and the (OSIS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.3 -1.0
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 46.4% of Issues Advancing, 51.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.43 +60.7% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$58.0M
  • 108 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
  • 53.8%(-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 68.0 -1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.2 -2.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,472.6 +.4%
  • 1-Day Vix 11.1 -16.3%
  • Vix 12.0 -5.3%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -3.2%