Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Nov. is estimated at -88.9B versus -$89.8B in Oct.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.4% decline in Oct.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 210K versus 205K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1875K versus 1865K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a -1.5% in Oct.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,880,250 barrels versus a +2,909,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -65,250 barrels versus a +2,710,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +34,750 barrels versus a +1,485,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.1% versus a +2.2% gain prior.
  

Bloomberg 

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Housing Data report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (TGLS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -29.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 25.3 +4.8
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 59.1% of Issues Advancing, 38.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.39 +61.6% 
• Non-Block Money Flow -$15.3M
  
• 193 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 67.4%(+.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 71.0+1.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.5 -1.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.423 +.04%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,376.3 -.08%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 79.0 (Extreme Greed) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 7.55 -8.0%
  
• Vix 12.4 -4.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .74 -18.7%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.75 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.75 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 140.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.05%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.7 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.1 +1.3%.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 -.32%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Year-End Window-Dressing, Short-Covering, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.2 +1.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .42% -3.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.2 +.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.9 +.34%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.89 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.0 -1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 169.0 +40.0
  

• Total Put/Call .88 +1.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.1 -3.5% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$171.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.76 +.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 335.72 -.95%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 293 -26
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.6 -1.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 208.35 +.01%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.9 +.38%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.49 -.21%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 111.2 +.82%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.12%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 23.75 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 141.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 961.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.7 -.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 139.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.20 euros/megawatt-hour unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.2 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.2 -2.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.93 +.18:  Growth Rate +11.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.53 +.60: Growth Rate +35.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 30.4 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .46 +73.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -45.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.26% -42.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.9% -2.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.33% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 72.7%(-2.9 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 71.8%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +119 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating n/a open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/transport/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -.6% 2) Pharma -.2% 3) Software -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IONQ, STNG, ASC, TNP, BSM, RIOT, BLSK and TNK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MANU 2) NTES 3) BLNK 4) RKLB 5) SNPS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DTGI 2) ID 3) AHCO 4) EL 5) KRTX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.5% 2) Oil Service +2.4% 3) Video Gaming +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RYZB, GCT, SSYS, BLBD and ZYME
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MANU 2) TUP 3) DB 4) CAN 5) BLNK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RYZB 2) VLON 3) SSYS 4) ANGH 5) NIO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume