Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -1.2% 2) Oil Service -1.2% 3) Energy -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMPH, BECN, CORT, MBLY, MIRM, IRBT, GNE, GCT, TGTX and AEHR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AVTR 2) CFLT 3) ICLN 4) INFY 5) CNM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DCGO 2) AEHR 3) MDRX 4) CHPT 5) FSR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) AI/Robotics +2.5% 2) Homebuilding +1.9% 3) Medical Equipment +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SATS, ESTA, PD, SGH, ISRG, ACVA, HUT, ACMR, VRNA, U, SWAV, MARA, PSMT, PANW, INTA, ALC, SONY, MASI, LGF/A, ASAN, SPR, META, NARI, MEG, PTGX, HTHT, BROS, TM, CLS, FBRT and WWD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MDRX 2) JNPR 3) ISRG 4) PD 5) DHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ISRG 2) SANA 3) AMRN 4) WDFC 5) LAES
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov. 
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 210K versus 202K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1870K versus 1855K prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Budget Deficit for Dec. is estimated at -$63.8B versus -$85.0B in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, 30Y T-Bond auction, Fed's balance sheet report, Cleveland CPI for Dec., weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (SUM) shareholders meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 -1.5
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 53.2% of Issues Advancing, 44.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.62 +8.8% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$44.7M
  
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 62.9%(+.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.3 -.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 137.2 -.02%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,486.5 +.99%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 75.0 (Extreme Greed) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.0 +22.3%
  
• Vix 12.9 +.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -14.1%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.75 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 64.5 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 135.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.18 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.2 +1.3%.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .84 n/a.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 +.22%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Economy Worries, Mid-East Regional War Fears, Dollar Strength, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.9 -1.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .46% -19.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.0 -.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.88 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.71 -1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.7 -2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +40.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 +7.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.25 -3.9% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$309.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.70 -.95%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 336.5 -.05%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 313 +15
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.9 -1.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 219.8 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.4 -1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 181.45 +.41%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 124.74 +9.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.24 +.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 149.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 969.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 75.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 135.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.6 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.5 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.5 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.9 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +9.1% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.52 -.11:  Growth Rate +11.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.05% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.63 +.26: Growth Rate +36.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.8 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .39 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -35.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.23% -28.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.3% +.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 62.7%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 52.5%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +122 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +131 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long