Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Diminished Mid-East Regional War Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 -3.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74 +69.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.8 -3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 171.7 +.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.2 -.96%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 -4.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +12.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.49 +2.05% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$181.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.4 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 333.40 -.29%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 331 +21
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.66 +2.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 208.92 +3.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.81 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.0 -2.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 129.4 -.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.47 +.14%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 887.0 -10.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 70.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.88 +.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.0 euros/megawatt-hour -4.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.4 +5.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -3.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(208 of 500 reporting) -.4% -.8 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 244.03 +.28:  Growth Rate +10.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.49% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 10 reporting) +31.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.66 +1.08: Growth Rate +38.6% +.5 percentage point, P/E 30.8 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .60 -16.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -33.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.0% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 67.6% +3.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 59.6%(+13.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 50.3%(+8.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +140 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/biotech/utility sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks -2.7% 2) Insurance -1.1% 3) Oil Service -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• INDB, HON, KEY, SWK, FRO, CPRI, STNG, MTB, EWBC, QCOM, OZK, AXS, WAL, ING, ATI, ZION, OCSL, PNFP, SIGI, MTH, KLIC, AFL, MXL, WOLF, ZIM, CNMD and CHRW
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NYCB 2) RKLB 3) HON 4) WAL 5) CMA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PTON 2) NYCB 3) AFL 4) CHRW 5) LFST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.0% 2) Alt Energy +2.6% 3) Computer Hardware +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NXT, CTVA, OLMA, PTGX, DGII, RACE, UGI, ARVN, BOOT, ALGM, CGEM, SMCI, HLIT, ETSY, VSTO, ZGN, GOOS, BALL, THC, GFI, NSC, DLX, TT, DLX, ETN, PH, DB, LI, SHLS, CLS, CORT, VRT, PCVX, QRVO, FLEX, JHG, KEX, MGNX, WBD, WNC, ROK, MEOH, BC, FTV, ALGN, DOV and TTEK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NYCB 2) ALGN 3) EU 4) ETN 5) NXT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CELU 2) NXT 3) ELAB 4) DGII 5) CTVA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.80
• (AON)/4.07
• (BMY)/1.55
• (CBOE)/2.04
• (CHTR)/8.72
• (CVX)/3.19
• (CHD)/.65
• (XOM)/2.20
• (LYB)/1.33
• (MGA)/1.47
• (PIPR)/2.61
• (REGN)/10.74
• (SAIA)/3.20
• (CI)/6.54
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Jan. is estimated to fall to +185K versus +216K in Dec.
• The Unemployment Rate for Jan. is estimated to rise to 3.8% versus 3.7% in Dec.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Jan.
• Factory Orders for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.6% gain in Nov.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US government funding deadline, US Baker Hughes Rig Count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and (CHD) analyst day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 -.7
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 50.6% of Issues Advancing, 46.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.42 -2.7% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$10.1M
  
• 74 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 59.9%(+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 -9.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.1 -2.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 136.5 -.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,939.6 +.86%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (Greed) -5.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.5 -7.4%
  
• Vix 14.5 +1.2%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.02 +13.3%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• China Politburo Avoids Setting Date for Major Economic Meeting.
• Global Fund Exodus From China Stocks Hits Record Sixth Month.
• South Korea Exports Grow as Chips Shore Up Momentum for 2024.
• Stocks Slip, Treasuries Cool After Fed Pushback: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Holds Biggest Loss in Three Weeks on Robust US Crude Output.
• Fed’s Powell Cements Pivot But Pushes Back on Timing of Cuts.
• NY Community Bancorp Flashes a $560 Billion Real Estate Warning for Banks.
• Billionaire Sternlicht Sees $1 Trillion Loss in Office Values.
• Nelson Peltz Tells Disney Investors to Reject Two Board Directors.
• Republican Senators Weigh Israel, Ukraine Aid Without Border Demands.
• Powell Says Slowing Balance Sheet Unwind on Table For March
• Wind Farms Are Overstating Their Output — And Consumers Are Paying For It.
• Tesla to Open US Battery Plant With Equipment From China’s CATL. 
• AI Is Helping Pick What You’ll Wear in Two Years. 
• Hollywood’s Bank to the Stars Fined $65 Million for Risk-Control Failures.
• Hedge Funds With 2,000% Leverage Catch EU Watchdog’s Eye.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zero Hedge:

• Hawkish Fed Hammers Dovish Market: No Cuts Imminent, Removes 'Banking System Soundness' Comment.
• "One Of The Most Brilliant Explanations Of The Modern World": Russell Brand Sits With Tucker Carlson For Explosive Interview.
• "Entirely Counterfeit": Harvard's Chief Diversity Officer Plagiarized At Least 40 Times According To Complaint.
• 28 Republican AGs Say Ending Ammo Sales At Missouri Plant Could Harm National Security.
• The Real Victors In All The Bloodshed: US Arms Exports Hit Record High In 2023.
• Oregon University Will No Longer Give 'D-' Or 'F' Grades.
• Hamas Returning To Northern Gaza, Reasserting Control In Some Areas.
• Robotic "Companions" Are Testing The Scope Of Privacy And Sexual Freedom.
• Legacy Media's Reporting On Mass Shooting Does Not Reflect Reality.
• Split The International Energy Agency Into Two To Avoid Shocks.
• Modi First, Scholz Worst: Ranking The Approval Ratings Of World Leaders.
• Arizona Lawmaker Introduces Bill Requiring Schools To Teach About Harms Of Communism.
• Euphoria meets reality.
• US stocks declined amid banking sector fears and Powell's pushback against a March cut - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US stocks declined amid banking sector fears and Powell's pushback against a March cut - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Suddenly The News Gatekeepers Are The News. 
• The Era Of Easy-Money Ruined Us.
• Hawkish Powell and regional banking fears weigh on market - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks, Bond Yields, & Bullion Puke After Powell Pummels Dovish Dreamers, Assails AI.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fed Signals Rate Cuts Are Coming but Not Imminent
• U.S. Presses for Long Cease-Fire to Pave Way for End of Gaza War
• Chinese Hacking Against U.S. Infrastructure Threatens American Lives, Officials Say
• New York Community Bancorp Stock Plunges 38%, Reigniting Fears for Regional Banks.
• He Taught AP History. Now He Targets Teachers for Being Too Woke..
• Investor Group Targets Norfolk Southern, Aims to Oust CEO.
• The Companies Calling Workers Back to the Office Five Days a Week.
• C.H. Robinson Profit Plunges on Weak Freight Demand.
• The U.S. Is Spoiled by Cheap Canadian Oil. That’s About to Change.

CNBC.com:

• Fed Chief Jerome Powell says a March rate cut is unlikely.
• Meta, X, TikTok, Snap and Discord face senators eager for tighter social media regulation.
• Jeffrey Gundlach says all the ‘Goldilocks’ talk makes him nervous, thinks recession is still likely.
• Qualcomm earnings beat estimates as smartphone chip sales suggest recovery.

Reuters:

• Tech CEOs told 'you have blood on your hands' at US Senate child safety hearing.
• US bank stocks sink after New York Community Bancorp cuts dividend.
• Pentagon calls out Chinese companies it says are helping Beijing's military.
• Japan Jan factory activity shrinks modestly on softer demand - PMI.

MarketWatch.com:

• Judge dismisses Disney’s free-speech lawsuit against DeSantis.
• Fewer dentist visits hit Invisalign maker Align last year. Here’s why the stock is rallying now.
• Microsoft earnings may have offered a big bullish clue about cloud growth.

Newsmax:

• New Evidence of UNWRA's Hamas Ties Revealed.
• UK Considers Recognizing Palestinian State at UN.
• Sen. Rand Paul: US Soldiers in Middle East Are Sitting Ducks.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Senator Josh Hawley Forces Mark Zuckerberg to Stand Up and Apologize to Families of Victims Impacted by Child Sexual Exploitation on Meta — Zuckerberg Gets Up and Apologizes (VIDEO).
• O’Keefe Goes Undercover: White House Official Gives Tell All on Behind the Scenes Discussions Surrounding Joe Biden’s Mental Health Decline & Kamala Harris’ Unpopularity Within the Administration – “What They Can’t Say Publicly”.
• Midnight Vote Moves Mayorkas Impeachment Much Closer to Reality: ‘The Time for Accountability Is Now’.
• REPORT: Biden Regime Launching Scheme to ‘Effectively’ Disrupt Private Gun Sales Before the 2024 Election.
• Measure That Blue State Voted for Resulted in 241% Increase in Opioid Deaths, Forces Dems to Declare State of Emergency.
• WATCH: Georgia Lawmaker Captures Video of Illegal Aliens Tucked Away in Hidden Room Under Military Protection at Atlanta Airport.
• NEW: Biden to Name Dirty John Podesta as New Climate Czar to Replace John Kerry.
• Democrat Massachusetts Governor Turns ‘Emotional’ as She Announces Conversion of Roxbury Recreation Center into Shelter for Illegal Immigrants (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden to Visit East Palestine, Ohio a Year After the Disaster Since It’s an Election Year.
• Main Stream Media Financial Implosion – “The People” Don’t Want Fake News or Taylor Swift (Video).
• Transgenderism and Reverse Discrimination Negatively Impacts the U.S. Military, According to Hundreds of Service Members.
• Hohmann: Biden Regime Expanding Intrusive Facial Recognition Scans to All 430 ‘Federalized’ Airports,.
• ICE Arrests Illegal Alien Gang Member Convicted of Accessory to Murder in Maryland – Radical State Court Previously Released Dangerous Illegal Despite Conviction and Ignored ICE Detainer.
• Pro-Life Activists Convicted of Felonies in Tennessee – Face 11 Years in Prison for Praying and Singing Hymns Outside Abortion Clinic. 
• Former Trump Admin Official in Critical Condition After Being Shot During a Carjacking Spree in D.C.

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Is Still Failing China’s Economy.
• Speaker Johnson Calls Out CCP’s Forced Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners, Tibetans.
• China’s Gene-Targeting of Americans.

X:

• @JamesOKeefeIII - BREAKING VIDEO: Top White House Cyber Official tells O’Keefe in Disguise “they can't say it publicly” the White House wants to replace Kamala Harris and Confirms President @JoeBiden mental decline: “Biden is definitely slowing down.” “I'm just telling you what I've heard… they’re really concerned about it” …“I think they need to get rid of him or her.” (video)
• @JackPosobiec - BENZ: NATO THINKTANKS ARE ON VIDEO DISCUSSING USING TAYLOR SWIFT TO SWING ELECTIONS IN THE EU AGAINST RIGHT-WING PARTIES. (video)
• @AndrewKerrNC - BREAKING: @FreeBeacon has obtained audio of a whistleblower privately warning Fani Willis in 2021 that her top aide was trying to misuse federal funds. Willis did not dispute the allegations. 56 days later, Willis fired the whistleblower and perp walked her out of the office. (audio)
• @LauraLoomer - Nancy Pelosi's son Paul Pelosi Jr. dodges federal charges for the SEVENTH time after being linked to money laundering and mail fraud scheme involving a San Francisco Flop house. No accountability for Democrats in America. Democrats always get off.
• @BGatesIsaPsycho - Meanwhile in France…. Farmers from all over the country continue to converge on Paris in their fight against the Climate Scam & Climate Communism. Support the Farmers (unless your a fan of Bill Gates fake meat & insect eating). (video)
• @TheChiefNerd - Megyn Kelly on Being Targeted by Moderna for Sharing Her COVID Vaccine Side Effects Publicly. "I got targeted by Moderna who is very worried that this would add to the growing concern around autoimmune disorders following COVID-19 vaccinations. They're admitting internally that it's a problem but they're upset that I am talking about it... (video)
• @VivekGRamaswamy -  There is no “climate emergency.” That’s the TRUTH. (graph)
• @4Mischief - Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (Rep-NY) has moment of silence for the 3 American service members killed by Iran  and rips Biden’s lack of leadership. Her quote on Joe Biden is spot on ~ “Illegal immigrants come first, American families come last in Joe Biden’s America”. (video)
• @VigilantFox - Russell Brand warns our freedoms are being stripped one by one, as we are led from one crisis to the next. What crisis is next? Brand fears we are being prepped for a hot war with Russia. Brand warns authoritarianism is no longer a boot on the neck but “deliberately veiled in the insidious language of care, concern, safety and convenience.” (video) RUSSELL BRAND ASKS: Where are the investigations for Epstein Island and COVID-19? DR. PETER MCCULLOUGH: “Whoever is running for president better figure this out pretty quick!” (video)
• @simonateba - BREAKING - Massive Election Interference: Once again, it's clear the American people do not choose their leaders, but Super PACs and billionaires do. In a significant development today for the upcoming presidential election, Future Forward, a powerful super PAC, announced that it plans to invest a record-breaking $250 million in TV and digital advertising across battleground states to support President Biden's reelection in 2024. NOTE: This would mark the largest expenditure on political advertising by an external group in U.S. political history.
• @stillgray - BREAKING: US Navy veteran Michael Cassidy has been charged with a hate crime for beheading a statue of Satan at the Iowa Capitol.
• @alx - PsyOps are not a conspiracy theory. (video)
• @WallStreetSilv - China's dystopian system (social credit score and Digital ID) can leave you stranded where you cannot spend your own money to buy anything, including food. Coming soon to the USA and Europe? (video) Republicans in Congress are collaborating with Dems to sneak in a bill that would hand $155 billion to illegal immigrants and corporate lobbyists. All under the Orwellian name “tax relief for families.” (video)
  
• @wideawake_media -  Speaking at the WEF, former head of the IMF's China division, Eswar Prasad: CBDC will be programmable, in a way that will enable governments to dictate how, when, where, on what and by whom they can be spent, including the imposition of expiry dates. CBDCs are a totalitarian's wet dream, and would enable governments to centrally enforce tyrannical policies on an industrial scale—at the flick of a switch—without the need for human enforcement agents. Not "up to date" with your injections? Exceeded your weekly carbon allowance? Ventured outside of your designated '15 minute' district? Oops, no money for you! (video) "What do we need so many humans for?" Leading advisor to the WEF, Yuval Noah Harari, "predicts" that rapid advances in computing technology will "make humans redundant", creating a "massive class of useless people" who will need to be kept "happy" with "drugs and computer games". (video)
  
• @PierreKory -  It’s starting folks. The lawyers are winning more and more Covid cases. Gov’t health recommendations are not protecting employers from their subsequent unethical actions toward their employees.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,000,725 Reports(+2,808 from prior report) Through December 29th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 67.0 +2.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 130.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.8 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.3 -.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.